Author: FX

Commerzbank’s Michael Pfister notes that the initial weakness of the US Dollar after the Supreme Court tariff ruling has reversed, leaving USD pairs near pre-ruling levels. He stresses that the reaction is not clear-cut, with fiscal concerns offset by swift new tariffs. Ongoing legal challenges, trade negotiations and potential tariff hikes suggest persistent uncertainty for the Dollar.Tariff ruling leaves Dollar unsettled”The weakness of the USD following the Supreme Court’s ruling on tariffs was short-lived. Yesterday morning, the movement gradually reversed, and most USD exchange rates are now trading at roughly the same level as before the ruling.””However, uncertainty is likely…

The U.S. and Canada are taking their rivalry off the ice and straight into the charts. USD/CAD is pressing up against a major resistance zone. Will the dollar keep its weeks-long rally alive? Or will Loonie traders strike back and defend this ceiling like it is Finals overtime? USD/CAD 4-hour Forex Chart Faster with TradingView Stronger-than-expected mid-tier and labor-related data have nudged traders back toward the U.S. dollar, restoring some of its safe-haven appeal as geopolitical tensions linger. At the same time, firm crude oil prices are putting a floor under the Canadian dollar, helping cap USD/CAD’s upside and keeping…

Australia is set to publish its latest inflation report, and this release could go a long way in shaping short-term expectations for the RBA’s next move. Our Event Guide for Australia’s CPI Report already flagged the possibility of slightly cooler numbers in January. At the same time, it pointed out that rising commodity prices could keep pressure on consumer prices and reinforce already elevated expectations for further RBA tightening. If the numbers come in stronger than expected and tilt hawkish for the Australian dollar, we could see traders focus on AUD/USD and EUR/AUD as markets quickly adjust rate expectations. Source…

Australia’s upcoming CPI release could make or break March RBA tightening expectations. Our Event Guide for the Australian Inflation Report points out that the previous release contained outsized gains due to one-off factors, possibly resulting to a much weaker January reading by comparison. Here’s what I’m watching on AUD/NZD and AUD/JPY in case the numbers disappoint. Source link

China moved to restrict dual-use exports to 20 Japanese entities, a fresh escalation in trade frictions amid already strained bilateral ties.Summary:China’s Commerce Ministry adds 20 Japanese entities to an export control “watch list”Measures ban exports of dual-use items to listed entities without licencesOverseas parties also barred from re-transferring China-origin dual-use items to themBeijing cites inability to verify end-users/end-uses, and frames move as curbing Japan “remilitarisation”Includes names such as Subaru, Mitsubishi Materials, Sumitomo Heavy Industries and aerospace trading unitsChina’s Commerce Ministry said it will place 20 Japanese entities on its export control list, tightening restrictions on shipments of dual-use items in…

NVDA heads into the February 25 earnings release capped below a multi-month upper gate, with a sustained break above 191–193 needed to open a move toward 195–200.NVIDIA (NVDA) heads into Wednesday’s February 25 earnings release at a key technical decision zone, with price once again testing the 191–193 resistance band that has capped multiple recovery attempts since late December 2025.The stock remains in a two-way structure that has controlled price action since early October 2025. A late-October move into the upper range failed to hold, triggering a broader rotation that carried price back into the lower structure by late November.…

The CRT Indicator MT5 addresses this challenge by combining channel range analysis with trend-strength measurement, giving traders a clearer picture of when price action warrants attention versus when it’s just noise. This technical tool helps identify potential reversals and continuation setups by measuring how price behaves within defined ranges relative to recent momentum. Let’s examine how it works and whether it deserves space on your charts. What the CRT Indicator Actually Measures The CRT (Channel Range Trend) Indicator calculates the relationship between current price position within a dynamic channel and the strength of the prevailing trend. Think of it as…

Markets wrestled with renewed tariff uncertainty on Monday as President Trump’s weekend announcement of a 15% global tariff under Section 122 authority replaced the Supreme Court-struck reciprocal framework, while Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller dampened March rate cut expectations by describing the decision as a “coin flip” following January’s stronger employment data. Check out the forex news and economic updates you may have missed in the latest trading session! Forex News Headlines & Data: New Zealand Retail Sales Growth for December 31, 2025: 0.9% q/q (1.0% q/q forecast; 1.9% q/q previous); 4.4% y/y (3.6% y/y forecast; 4.5% y/y previous) New…

UBS sees gold climbing to USD 6,200 as geopolitics, Fed cuts and tight supply reinforce the bull case.Summary:UBS lifts conviction on gold, targets USD 6,200/oz in coming monthsGeopolitical risks seen staying elevated amid US–Iran tensionsFed easing cycle expected to continue, pressuring real yieldsGlobal gold demand tops 5,000 tonnes in 2025; central banks buyingSupply constraints emerging as mine depletion looms by 2028UBS has reiterated an Attractive stance on gold, forecasting a rise to USD 6,200 per ounce in the coming months, arguing that the fundamental pillars behind the rally remain firmly in place.On geopolitics, the bank expects uncertainty to remain elevated.…

ING’s Deepali Bhargava highlights that India is a notable beneficiary of the US tariff reset, with the removal of elevated IEEPA surcharges further reducing its effective tariff burden after earlier cuts. This change coincides with ongoing negotiations on an interim India‑US trade deal and may strengthen India’s bargaining position while easing pressure on previously vulnerable sectors.IEEPA removal strengthens India’s position”The removal of elevated IEEPA tariffs delivers a significant reduction in India’s effective tariff burden. President Trump had already lowered the punitive 50% tariff on India to 18%, and the elimination of IEEPA surcharges takes this relief a step further. Earlier…