Author: FX

EUR/USD up 0.36%, set to end week flat after Trump delays military action against Iran.Waller’s call for a July cut contrasts with Fed report and Barkin’s cautious stance.EU–US trade deal in jeopardy as July 9 deadline nears, capping upside potential.The Euro recovers some ground against the US Dollar on Friday and is set to finish the week virtually flat as risk appetite deteriorates. This is taking place despite US President Donald Trump delaying a military intervention in the Israel–Iran conflict. At the time of writing, the EUR/USD trades at 1.1534, up 0.36%.Market appetite has turned negative due to US trade…

Gold trades flat near $3,369, on track for a weekly loss of nearly 1.90%.Trump backs off immediate Iran action, boosting risk sentiment and denting safe-haven demand.Fed officials split on rate outlook; Waller eyes July cut, Barkin stays cautious.Gold price trades flat on Friday and is poised to end the week with a nearly 1.90% loss, after US President Donald Trump delayed taking military action against Iran, opting instead for a diplomatic solution. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades at $3,369, down 0.11%.Sentiment turned sour outside of geopolitical events, related to “US may revoke waivers for allies with semiconductor plants…

21 of 26 economists forecast Banxico will cut rates from 8.50% to 8.00% next week.Deputy Governor Heath signals caution, favoring a pause to assess data.Majority see easing pace slowing, with rates likely at 7.50% by Q3 2025.Banco de México (Banxico) is projected to continue its easing cycle next week, despite the latest inflation reports in Mexico suggesting that risks are tilted to the upside. Inflation in May came above the bank’s 3% target, increasing concerns that the central bank would continue to reduce rates.Most economists expect a fourth straight 50 bps cut, though calls grow for a slower pace aheadOn…

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So far the economy is in a good place and so is policyConcerns about tariff impact on inflation aren’t as large as they were when they were first announcedMany possibilities on how much of tariffs pass through to customersFundamentals of economy are moving to where an interest rate cut may be necessaryCEOs have cautious optimism on tariffsI look more to the autumn rather than July for a rate cutUnless we see a faltering labor market, autumn looks more appropriateThis is a pushback against Waller from earlier but it’s not a surprise to the market, which is pricing a 15% chancee…

The broader US indices are closing lower on the day. The Dow 30 did close marginally higher.Dow industrial average rose 35.16 points or 0.08% at 42206.82.S&P index fell -13.033 points or -0.22% at 5967.84NASDAQ index fell -98.86 points or -0.51% at 19447.41For the trading week indices were little changed:Dow industrial average closed up 0.02%S&P index fell -0.15%NASDAQ index rose 0.21%With all the uncertainty, the stock market seems to be ironically losing some of its volatility. Last week the major indices were little changed and that trend continued this week. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com. Source link

GBP/JPY up 0.43%, on track for weekly gain over 0.40% amid resilient buyer momentum.Pair nears June 17 high at 196.83; close above 197.00 could open path to 198.00.RSI remains bullish; downside risks emerge below 195.29 Tenkan-sen support.The GBP/JPY recovers and rallies for the second straight day, is up 0.43%, trades at 196.59, shy of reclaiming the 197.00, poised to finish the week with gains of over 0.40%. Market mood remains sour, but it was not an excuse for buyers to lift the cross-pair to fresh three-day highs.GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlookThe GBP/JPY pair remains consolidating, ahead of breaking the June…

The Dow Jones treaded water on Friday following a late-week holiday closure.Major equity indexes are awaiting key US economic data next week.Fed rate cut expectations are creeping back to the forefront.The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) held steady on Friday, sticking to chart territory just above the 42,000 major price handle. US equities are increasingly pivoting toward Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut expectations, and a series of key US data releases next week will draw increased investor attention.Coming up next week: PMIs, Fedspeak, PCE inflationThe next batch of S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) figures will kick things off next…

When I survey markets and themes right now it’s painfully difficult to find any clarity. Trump is extremely difficult to predict and right now we’re waiting on two big decisions:1) Whether to join the war with Iran2) How to conduct the trade warBoth could materially worsen or get better at any point. So far the trade war isn’t yielding any deals and today we learned that Japan isn’t even bothering with a scheduled July 1 meeting. Earlier in the week a report said the EU was resigned to 10% tariffs but that might only embolden Trump to push for more.…

WTI crude pulls back after topping $75.54 on Thursday, pressured by easing geopolitical risk.Geneva talks between Iran and EU diplomats signal diplomatic momentum, cooling Strait of Hormuz fears.Trump delays decision on direct US involvement, shifting market focus back to supply fundamentals.West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil is trading lower on Friday, slipping to around $73.80 per barrel after touching a high of $75.54 on Thursday.The decline reflects reduced geopolitical risk following diplomatic talks between Iran and European powers in Geneva, which helped unwind the risk premium built on Middle East tensions.WTI slips as Geneva diplomacy calms Hormuz fears, Trump delays…