Author: FX
DBS Group Research economist Chua Han Teng expects the People’s Bank of China to keep the 1-year Loan Prime Rate at 3.00% on February 24, as January data are still unfolding. The report says policy remains cautiously accommodative, reflected in a lower USD/CNY fixing below 7.0, with reliance on structural tools and broader easing anticipated toward the second half of 2026.Loan Prime Rate seen unchanged for now”The PBOC is expected to keep the 1-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) unchanged at 3.00%, as January economic data have yet to fully unfold.””The central bank is maintaining a cautiously accommodative monetary policy stance…
MUFG analysts Lin Li, Michael Wan, Lloyd Chan and Khang Sek Lee highlight an Asia‑centric week dominated by geopolitics, inflation and monetary policy. They expect the Bank of Korea to keep rates on hold through 2026, the Bank of Thailand to cut by 25bps, and China’s loan prime rates to stay unchanged pending clearer policy guidance in March.Asia policy signals drive FX outlook”The coming week is heavily Asia‑centric, with geopolitics, inflation dynamics and monetary policy in focus across the region.””In particular, we expect the Bank of Korea to keep rates on hold with the tone likely to indicate an extended…
Hawkish Fed minutes propel dollar to midweek highs as officials contemplate potential rate hikes, but Supreme Court’s tariff ruling sparks a sharp Friday reversal amid fiscal concerns. Source link
UOB Global Economics & Markets Research reports that Malaysia’s inflation remained stable in January, slightly below its own forecast and in line with consensus. Despite solid 4Q25 GDP, price pressures are seen as contained, reducing the urgency for policy changes. UOB therefore maintains its view that Bank Negara Malaysia will hold the Overnight Policy Rate at 2.75% throughout 2026.Contained inflation supports steady policy stance”Malaysia’s headline inflation remained stable at 1.6% y/y in Jan (Dec: 1.6%), in line with Bloomberg consensus but tad lower than our estimate (1.7%).””In our view, despite the strength in 4Q25 GDP, inflation remains contained, thus providing…
DBS Group Research’s Radhika Rao highlights that Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas cut its policy rate by 25bps to 4.25%, citing weaker-than-expected recovery, softer confidence and delayed government spending. Official growth forecasts for 2026–27 were lowered, inflation projections nudged higher, and DBS still expects one more 25bps cut as BSP keeps the door open to further easing.BSP cuts with cautious forward guidance”The BSP lowered policy rate by 25bps, accompanied by a cautious guidance in light of weaker-than expected recovery, besides softer confidence indices, and delay in government spending on graft-led uncertainty.””Official growth forecasts were cut to 4.6% for 2026 and 5.9%…
The AUD/USD advances for the second straight day, up by 0.36% as the Greenback edges lower as US economic growth takes a toll while inflation accelerates towards the 3% threshold. At the time of writing, the pair trades at 0.7086, poised to end the week with gains of over 0.19%.AUD/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlookThe AUD/USD remains upward biased after buyers pushed the exchange rate past above the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of 0.7034. Following that, they cleared 0.7050 and seem poised to challenge the 0.7100 mark.Bullish momentum remains intact, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) aiming higher, after bottoming…
Gold prices rally more than 1% on Friday after economic growth in the US decelerated, while inflation rose past the 3% threshold as depicted by the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) favorite inflation gauge. XAU/USD trades at $5,065 after bouncing off daily lows of $4,981.Bullion jumps as US growth slows and core PCE tops 3%, stagflation looming?Breaking news revealed that the US Supreme Court ruled against Trump’s tariffs, imposed under a law intended for national emergencies. This improved risk appetite, as US equities pared earlier losses and turned positive in the day. In the…
While most currencies have been tossing and turning from uncertainty, the Australian dollar has mostly been racking up gains across the board while the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) officially entered its tightening era. The latest Australian jobs report released earlier this month just handed RBA policymakers and Aussie bulls another reason to feel good. So what’s fueling this AUD run, and more importantly, can it keep going? Let’s break it down. What Happened: The January Jobs Report Australia’s labor market just printed another solid month of data, and markets definitely noticed. According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS),…
MUFG’s Senior Currency Analyst Lloyd Chan notes that Bank Indonesia kept its 2026 growth forecast at 4.9%–5.7% and still expects inflation to stay within its 1.5%–3.5% target. However, upside inflation risks could weigh on the Rupiah if policymakers let the economy run hotter. Higher bond yields and overvalued 10‑year bonds add to policy trade-offs for BI as it considers gradual easing.Growth targets held as inflation risks tilt up”BI maintains its 2026 growth forecast at 4.9%–5.7% and continues to expect inflation to remain within its 1.5%–3.5% target range this year. However, inflation risks are skewed to the upside if policymakers allow…
The US Dollar (USD) held firm on Friday after the release of top-tier data, but the US Dollar Index (DXY) posted an acceptable weekly gain of almost 1%. The December Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) rose by 3% YoY, above market forecasts, signalling an uptick in inflation pressures and supporting the USD. Additionally, the US flash Q4 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) fell to 1.4% from the 3% expected, impacting investors’ attraction to the Greenback.The US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading near the 97.80 level, struggling to attract buyers after weaker-than-expected GDP. On Monday, the US will release the December Factory…