Author: FX

Market action in the wake of the tariff decision has been choppy.There aren’t many tariff/Supreme Court experts on trading desks, so markets are understandably confused. Trump and other administration officials have said many times that they have other opportunities to reconstitute tariffs. The initial reaction in markets largely suggests they’re taking that at face value.I’m not sure that’s the right take. The 6-3 decision wasn’t limited and it insists that Congress give clear authority on tariffs. Now Congress has done that with some authorities but those are time limited and/or require investigations. What’s clear is that he will no longer…

Trump says the Supreme Court decision is a ‘disgrace’ and that he will find other ways to impose them, according to CNN.The thing is, IEEPA tariffs are immediately voided and that’s 60% of tariff revenue. I’d imagine there is rush to get those over the border and that’s going to create a huge trade deficit in Feb/March. This could be one of those things where Apple is chartering flights again.First, I’m interested in short-term trading flows here. Aside from a brief administrative delay, tariffs will stop being collected immediately and that should create a rush to get imports over the…

According to the US Department of Commerce, headline Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation came in at 2.9% YoY in December. Core PCE, which strips out food and energy costs, ran a touch firmer at 3.0% YoY, suggesting underlying price pressures are still proving a bit sticky.On a monthly basis, the headline and core PCE rose by 0.4%, both prints coming in above initial estimates.Market reactionThe US Dollar Index (DXY) remains on a positive footing, trading close to the 98.00 region, or four-week tops, in the wake of the release. Inflation FAQs Inflation measures the rise in the price of a…

Most of India’s rate panel sees little room for rate cuts, minutes show Source link

The bounce here sees silver trade up by over 3% today to now above $81. It’s a solid recovery from the lows on Tuesday, which saw a dip just under the $72 level at the time. The price swings this week are not as volatile as what we’ve seen in late January to early February but they are still worth taking note of.For now, US-Iran tensions continue to help with buying appetite but traders are still wary of the volatility bouts from earlier this month. That especially as both gold and silver looks to be consolidating a fair bit. And…

DBS’s Chang Wei Liang note USD/JPY has moved above 155 on broad Dollar strength, even as geopolitical risks could support the Japanese Yen as a safe haven. Japan’s FY26 budget debate and Prime Minister Takaichi’s proposal to suspend the consumption tax on food are seen as key for JPY direction. The IMF’s guidance on tax policy and BOJ rate hikes may delay sustained JPY strength.Fiscal debate and BOJ path guide Yen”US-Iran tensions have re-escalated, with Trump warning of a strike on Iran in the next 10 days without a deal, and Iran threatening that all bases and assets of hostile…

Lagarde signals intent to finish ECB term, amid politically sensitive succession chatter.Westpac warns Australia’s unemployment rate masks soft demand and falling participationFX INTERVENTION: Reports the Reserve Bank of India is selling USD/INR to support the rupeeGoldman: Gold to grind higher to $5,400/oz by end-2026 on strong demandNZD, AUD fall as RBNZ says inflation returning to target, no preset pathEl-Erian flags private credit ‘canary in the coal mine’ as fund freezes redemptionsUSD gains on strong US data unlikely to last; policy uncertainty, political risks to capSupreme Court tariff ruling nears; JPM maps S&P 500 swings across four scenariosJapan flash PMIs rise…

The Japanese Yen (JPY) shows weakness against the US Dollar (USD) during the Asian trading session on Friday. The USD/JPY pair holds onto gains near its weekly high of 155.20 posted on Thursday. The pair is under pressure as the US Dollar continues to outperform due to signals from Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes of the January policy meeting that officials see no rush for interest rate cuts, with inflation remaining persistently above the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) 2% target.As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades firmly near the…

EUR/USD is struggling to extend its downswing as it tests a key support zone! Is the pair about to bounce and revisit higher inflection points? Here is what we are seeing on the 4-hour chart. EUR/USD 4-hour Forex Chart by TradingView U.S.-Iran war jitters, mixed mid-tier Euro Area data, and lingering uncertainty around ECB President Lagarde’s tenure have likely kept a lid on euro demand in recent sessions. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar has been quietly picking up ground, supported by safe haven flows and upbeat U.S. labor-related data. But the tides could change soon as the U.S. gears up to…

Trump orders agencies to identify and release government files on aliens Source link