Author: FX

After a solid run, GBP/NZD is now bumping into a key resistance zone that could give the bulls second thoughts. Will we see a bearish reversal in the next few days? We’re taking a closer look at the pair’s 4-hour time frame: GBP/NZD 4-hour Forex Chart by TradingView The British pound got a lift last week from the Bank of England’s “hawkish cut” event and its relative immunity to U.S. tariff drama, especially against risk currencies like the New Zealand dollar. But with a wave of top and mid-tier U.K. data coming up, Sterling’s hot streak could hit a bump.…

Australia’s labor market showed steady strength in July, with the unemployment rate edging down to 4.2% from 4.3% in June, according to Thursday’s data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. The employment data comes just two days after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.6%. RBA Governor Michele Bullock had indicated that while the labor market has eased in recent months, some indicators suggest conditions remain “a little bit on the tight side.” Key Points from the July Employment Report Unemployment rate: Fell to 4.2% (seasonally adjusted) from 4.3% in June Employment…

Markets rode a wave of risk-on sentiment on Wednesday as Fed rate cut expectations strengthened after Bessent floated a potential 50 bps cut in September. Stocks hit fresh records, the dollar weakened, oil slid on IEA oversupply warnings, and bitcoin blasted to new highs. Here are headlines you may have missed in the last trading sessions! Headlines: Japan Reuters Tankan index for August: 9.0 (7.0 forecast; 7.0 previous) Japan PPI for July: 2.6% y/y (2.6% y/y forecast; 2.9% y/y previous) Australia wage price index for Q2 2025: 3.4% y/y (3.3% y/y forecast; 3.4% y/y previous); 0.8% q/q (0.8% q/q forecast;…

AUD/JPY depreciates as the Japanese Yen strengthens, with Fed rate cut expectations narrowing yield spreads.US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent believes that the Fed could implement a 50-basis-point rate cut in September.Australia’s Employment Change climbed to 24.5K, while Unemployment Rate fell to 4.2% in July.AUD/JPY halts its winning streak that began on August 5, trading around 96.20 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The currency cross weakens as the Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthens, driven by external factors, particularly the softening of Fed rate expectations, which is narrowing yield spreads.US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Wednesday that short-term Fed interest rates…

The Japanese Yen strengthens against the USD for the third consecutive day on Thursday.The divergent BoJ-Fed expectations continue to drive flows towards the lower-yielding JPY.Even the risk-on mood does little to dent the bullish sentiment around the safe-haven JPY.The Japanese Yen (JPY) touches a fresh three-week high against its American counterpart heading into the European session on Thursday and looks to build on a three-day-old uptrend amid hawkish Bank of Japan (BoJ) expectations. In fact, the BoJ revised its inflation forecast in July and left the door open for an imminent interest rate hike by the end of this year.…

The Log Tick Data MT4 Indicator is designed to capture and record every incoming tick directly from the MT4 platform. Unlike standard chart data that only stores bar information, this tool saves each tick’s time, price, and volume. This granular data is especially valuable for scalpers, algorithm developers, and traders who rely on precise entry and exit points. By having access to such detailed records, traders can analyze how the market moves between candles, identify hidden patterns, and fine-tune their strategies accordingly. Why Tick Data Matters Most traders rely solely on OHLC (Open, High, Low, Close) data, which often hides…

MUFG says political, Fed uncertainty keeping risk premium in USD; carry trades gainMUFG says the US dollar is holding onto a higher risk premium as investors weigh lingering uncertainty over a potential dovish shift in the Federal Reserve’s leadership and fresh concerns about political interference in US economic data. The caution comes despite a recent easing of trade policy risks.The bank noted that last week’s US CPI data left the door open for the Fed to resume rate cuts as soon as next month, a prospect that has contributed to near-term dollar softness.In FX markets, carry-trade currencies have been among…

While the market price is in 100% chance of a September rate cut, Fed members are less assured it is needed despite the weaker jobs report from earlier this month, and continued pressure from Pres. Trump. Atlanta Fed Pres. Bostic is on the wires saying that: Feel like we have the luxury today to wait to make a policy adjustment because the labor market remains strong.Low to moderate income consumers are facing some stress, and that stress is starting to move up the income scaleUpper income consumers are still okay.Small businesses are feeling stressed much more than larger businesses.We know…

The EIA weekly oil inventory data will be released at 10:30 AM today. The private data was released late yesterday. They showed:Crude oil +1.5MDistillates +300,000Cushing -600,000The estimates are looking for:Crude oil -0.275MDistillates +0.725MCushing last week came in at 0.453MCrude oil is trading at $63.03, down -$0.14. The price yesterday settled at $63.17.Technically, The price has moved below the 100-hour MA (blue line on the chart above) at $64.78. That level – and the swing area between $63.61 and $65.27 – I consider the risk and bias defining level in the short term. Stay below that area, keeps the sellers in…

What’s the difference between a prediction versus a trading bias? A prediction is defined as a forecasting statement on how things will be in the future. Making a prediction means that you are expecting a certain outcome. In forex trading, saying that a currency pair will trade at a particular price at a specified point in time is an example of a prediction. Meanwhile, a bias refers to an inclination or outlook. Having a bias means you believe that a particular kind of behavior is more likely to occur than other alternatives. In trading, being bullish or bearish on a currency is a form of bias. As you probably noticed, the…