Author: FX
The first full trading week of February delivered a volatile mix of central bank surprises, deteriorating labor market data, and sharp risk-off sentiment that upended traditional currency correlations. Australia’s Reserve Bank shocked markets with its first rate hike in over two years, propelling the Aussie to the week’s top performance, while the Japanese yen suffered its worst showing despite typically benefiting from market stress. The U.S. dollar defied weak employment figures—including a dismal ADP report and plunging JOLTS openings—to finish positive against most majors as safe-haven flows dominated. Central banks took center stage mid-week, with the Bank of England’s…
The Euro found some respite on Friday versus its counterpart the Greenback, which enjoyed a short-live rally of just two days, but erased Thursday’s gains on Friday as depicted by the US Dollar Index (DXY). A risk-on impulse weighed on the Dollar’s safe-haven appeal, while an uneventful ECB monetary policy decision on Thursday, left traders leaning onto market mood. The EUR/USD trades at 1.1817, up 0.34%.Euro trims losses near 1.1820 as fading Dollar strength and steady ECB messaging steady the pairThe shared currency is poised to end the week with losses, but its seems the EUR/USD is poised to consolidate…
The Thai Baht (THB) is facing temporary weakness due to election-related uncertainties, softer gold prices, and a firmer USD. OCBC Group Research analysts Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong note potential scenarios for the upcoming elections and their implications for the THB, suggesting that a clear outcome could support the currency, while a contested result may pose challenges.Election uncertainty weighs on THB”USDTHB extended its move overnight. Election-uncertainty risk premia, softer gold prices and firmer USD remain some of the near term drivers.””A clear outcome allowing for the formation of majority government is the most positive as economic policies can potentially…
Markets:S&P 500 up 2.0%Russell 2000 up 3.8%US 10-year yields flat at 4.20%WTI crude up 19-cents to $63.48Gold up $183 to $4953Bitcoin up $6850 to $69,957AUD leads, JPY lagsWhat a week.There was no whimper at the end of it either as Friday’s trading was hugely volatile but the relief that nearly all the price action was risk positive. US equities posted a huge rebound and bitcoin nearly recouped Thursday’s gigantic loss as it rose 11.5%. Gold and silver also joined in the rebound.There wasn’t a particular catalyst, though the market did appear to like what Jensen Huang said on TV. The…
Plains All American outlines $2.75B EBITDA guidance for 2026 as company executes NGL divestiture, streamlining, and Cactus III integration Source link
MUFG notes robust Korean export growth, especially in semiconductors, but says KRW has underperformed on heavy foreign equity outflows and AI-valuation concerns. With the Bank of Korea seen at the end of its easing cycle and KRW volatility elevated, MUFG expects choppy trading, though its forecasts show a gradual USD/KRW drift lower through 2026.Equity outflows hit Korean Won”That said, we still think the BoK’s easing cycle has ended given the improving economic fundamental, financial stability risk related to Seoul’s housing market and heightened KRW volatility.””This week, KRW was the underperformer in Asia with 2% depreciation against US dollar given significant…
Leans towards more cuts in 2026, hard to say if it’s one or twoSays she keeps an open mind on ratesTo cut, you’d need to be more confident on inflation or see labor market as more challenged that currentlyWorkers feel they are on the knife’s edgeIf job market goes from ‘no firing’ to ‘some firing’ Fed may need to cutShe sees more vulnerability on jobs market than inflationWould be comfortable holding for longer if inflation picks upThe market is pricing in an 18% chance of a cut in March and one cut is fully priced in (barely) for the June…
The US Dollar (USD) saw little movement this week after markets assessed the United States (US) President Donald Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh, a former member of the Federal Reserve (Fed) Board of Governors, as the next Fed Chair, and the partial US government shutdown that pushed employment and inflation data to next week. The shutdown was ultimately resolved on Wednesday when President Trump signed a funding bill.The US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading near the 97.60 price zone after hitting two-week highs earlier on Friday. Next week, the US ADP Employment Change four-week average will be released on Tuesday,…
Two weeks ago the world was abuzz with precious metals bullish talk. Gold had rallied that week to $4982 from $4629 in the third straight week of gains. It was a near-euphoric time for the gold bulls, nearly hitting the once-dreamlike level of $5000.If you were to ask the bulls then, if they would be happy if in two weeks time gold would close essentially flat, they’d say yes. A consolidation after a long uptrend is good for the market and stability close to $5000 is a win for the bulls.Skip ahead two weeks and it doesn’t feel that way.…
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) climbed sharply on Friday, adding half a percent against the US Dollar (USD) after January labor market data showed the unemployment rate dropping to 6.5%, its lowest reading since September 2024. The Loonie found support despite headline employment falling by 25,000, as a sharp decline in labor force participation drove the jobless rate lower. USD/CAD pulled back toward 1.3634, trimming gains accumulated over recent weeks.Labor market details were mixed. The unemployment rate fell three-tenths of a percentage point to 6.5%, but the improvement came primarily from 94,000 people exiting the labor force rather than from job…