Author: FX
Wells Fargo Economics projects Brazil’s April IPCA inflation to rise 0.9% month-over-month and around 4.5% year-over-year, near or above the target band. Energy and food pressures are intensifying, while inflation expectations have risen. The Brazilian Central Bank is still seen cutting rates cautiously in June, but a pause in the easing cycle is becoming more likely.Energy and food drive inflation risks”We expect Brazil’s April IPCA to rise a sharp 0.9% month-over-month, pushing headline inflation to around or slightly above the top of the target band at 4.5% year-over-year.””Energy remains the key near‑term upside risk, with the Middle East conflict lingering…
On the day:S&P 500 +0.85%Nasdaq Comp +1.7%DJIA flatRussell 2000 +0.75%Toronto TSX Comp +0.6%On the week:S&P 500 +2.3%Nasdaq Comp +4.5%DJIA +0.2%Russell 2000 +1.7%Toronto TSX Comp +0.5%The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite hit fresh all-time highs today. A surprisingly strong U.S. jobs report—adding 115,000 jobs in April versus the 55,000 expected—overshadowed geopolitical fears, keeping investors heavily invested in the ongoing tech boom. This was the sixth straight week of gains, the longest run since Oct 2024.AI infrastructure demand continues to fuel semiconductor stocks. Micron shares popped 10% today, while Qualcomm jumped 9%, logging its fourth consecutive day of gains. The broader semiconductor…
The WSJ is out with the latest leak on US-Iran negotiations:Talks could resume as early as next weekIran remains against transferring nuclear materialIran and the US working with mediators to formulate a 14-point MOU that would set the parameters for a month of talks to end the warThe US would ‘wind back’ its blockade during those 30 daysDetails remain unresolvedWe continue to wait for war news but the market seems to have moved on. The Nasdaq is up for the sixth straight week and higher by more than 5% this week. Today we have big gains across tech and the…
MUFG economists Lin Li, Michael Wan, Lloyd Chan and Khang Sek Lee outline a base case where the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz by end‑May eases pressures on Asian currencies. They see Asia growth softening near term but stabilizing in H2 2026, with inflation contained and most central banks keeping neutral‑accommodative stances. They also sketch an adverse scenario with broad Asia FX depreciation.Base and adverse scenarios for Asia FX”A base case, where the Iran war and the Hormuz disruption unwind approaching end of May, is our core case. Asia growth softens slightly in near term but stabilizes into 2H2026…
Indian investors continue to pile up their bets on Gold via Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), contributing to the rebound in demand for the precious metal as spot prices stabilize after March’s sharp decline.India’s Gold ETFs extended their inflow streak to an eleventh consecutive month in April. Net inflows recorded $297.2 million, 68% more than the $176.6 million seen in March, according to data from the World Gold Council (WGC).Indian Gold ETFs have been registering inflows since May 2025, with a peak seen in January. Source: FXStreet using data from the World Gold Council.The interest of Indian investors in Gold ETFs…
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude Oil benchmark, falls some 2.49% on Friday, poised to end the week with losses of over 7.39%, amid growing speculation that the US and Iran will reach an agreement to end the conflict.Oil heads for weekly loss as Hormuz reopening hopes growMarket mood remains positive, even as tensions rise after the US and Iran exchanged fire overnight. In the meantime, Washington waits for Tehran’s response to the 14-point memorandum, which, according to US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, would be ready later in the day.Analysts cited by Reuters reported that the Oil trade…
Commerzbank’s Thu Lan Nguyen argues that any relief from a potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz for Aluminium will likely be short‑lived. Guinea, which supplies 40% of global bauxite, plans to cap exports at 150 million tons, nearly 20% below last year, a move expected to support bauxite prices and, over time, Aluminium prices.Guinea quota tightens raw material availability”However, a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz could turn out to provide only short-term relief. Over the course of the year, a shortage is emerging in a key raw material for aluminium production: the government of Guinea, the market leader…
WTI crude oil finished modestly higher today despite the ongoing exchange of fire between Iran and the USA. The market is waiting for the next steps in negotiations and whether both sides are able to open the Strait of Hormuz while they negotiate details of any lasting peace.What I will notice is that long-dated oil prices are rising and converging towards short-dated prices. December WTI was up $1.50 today to $79.85 and I think it’s more indicative of the market’s broader view of oil prices.WTI DecemberIt’s obviously risen to $80 from $60 but for the broader market, that seems to…
The AUDUSD fell sharply yesterday, breaking back below a key ceiling/floor zone between 0.7221 and 0.7227. That bearish break helped push the pair down toward the next swing area support between 0.7193 and 0.7200. In early Asian-Pacific trading, buyers leaned against that support zone for several hours, helping stabilize the price before the pair rotated back to the upside.During the European session, the AUDUSD reclaimed the former swing area between 0.7221 and 0.7227, and importantly, the price has been able to stay above that zone into North American trading. That move back above the old resistance area shifts the short-term…
ECBs Nagel;Will do whatever is needed to contain energy price jumpsECB is highly alert to increasing inflation risks. ECB will do whatever necessary to curb energy price surge. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com. Source link