Saturday, February 14


Bank of America on the US debt ceiling outlook:

  • Should any X-date breach last a month or more and involve
    prioritization of debt payments it would mean immediately cutting
    spending by about 5% of GDP

What this means is that:

  • this would turn an otherwise mild
    recession into a severe recession

And the implication for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC):

  • rate cuts could come as quickly
    as 3Q 23



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