After dipping earlier this week, AUD/USD looks like it may be gearing up to extend its weeks-long uptrend.
Can the pair attract enough buying pressure to push toward fresh monthly highs in the next trading sessions?
Let’s take a closer look at the 4-hour time frame:
AUD/USD 4-hour Forex Chart Faster with TradingView
A hawkish labor market update and stronger demand for gold had traders reaching for the Australian dollar, especially as alternatives like the New Zealand and Canadian dollars face their own headwinds. Kiwi is dealing with a less hawkish central bank, while the Canadian dollar is navigating concerns that Canada could be left out of a new North American trade deal.
At the same time, escalating US-Iran tensions and upbeat labor data cooled expectations for Fed rate cuts, giving the US dollar an added boost as war jitters kept investors on edge.
So, which way do these crosscurrents push AUD/USD?
Remember that directional biases and volatility conditions in market price are typically driven by fundamentals. If you haven’t yet done your fundie homework on the Australian dollar and the U.S. dollar, then it’s time to check out the economic calendar and stay updated on daily fundamental news!
AUD/USD, which has been in an observable uptrend since late November, recently ran into resistance near .7150 before easing back toward the .7050 area.
We’re watching this area closely since it lines up with a trend line support, the 4-hour 100 SMA, and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of February’s upswing.
Bullish candlesticks from here could attract fresh buying interest and lift AUD/USD back toward the .7150 highs, possibly even fresh monthly peaks.
But if the pair breaks cleanly below this inflection point and holds under the 100 SMA, we could see a retest of the .7000 psychological handle. A deeper slide may even open the door to the .6900 support zone.
Whichever bias you end up trading, don’t forget to practice proper risk management and stay aware of top-tier catalysts that could influence overall market sentiment.
Disclaimer:
Please be aware that the technical analysis content provided herein is for informational and educational purposes only. It should not be construed as trading advice or a suggestion of any specific directional bias. Technical analysis is just one aspect of a comprehensive trading strategy. The technical setups discussed are intended to highlight potential areas of interest that other traders may be observing. Ultimately, all trading decisions, risk management strategies, and their resulting outcomes are the sole responsibility of each individual trader. Please trade responsibly.
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