China official PMIs: Manufacturing 47.0 (vs. prior 48.0) & Services 41.6 (prior 46.7)

December PMIs from China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP).

Manufacturing 47.0

Services 41.6

Composite 42.6

Languishing with the renewed COVID-19
Covid-19

Covid-19 or the novel Coronavirus is a pandemic that has yielded wide ranging economic turmoil and volatility across financial markets in 2020.  The first cases of Covid-19 were reported in Wuhan, China in late 2019. Since then, the virus has expanded globally, infecting millions worldwide.  The virus has been extremely controversial, namely in the United States, which became heavily politicized during the 2020 presidential election. The Covid-19 pandemic is completely unprecedented in modern times, with the most recent example being the influenza outbreak in 1918.  Financial markets and global economies were completely unprepared for the scope of the virus, causing massive shutdowns, unemployment, and other hardships in an effort to contain and mitigate the virus. How Has Covid-19 Affected Markets? Virtually every asset has in some way been affected by Covid-19. Early on, financial markets and equities collapsed, with the nadir coming in March 2020 in the United States and Europe. Widespread lockdowns led to an economic standstill, resulting in stimulus packages to help keep domestic economies functioning.  The result of this has been a depreciation of currencies such as the US dollar, with the Federal Reserve printing billions of dollars to pare economic losses. Forex markets have since experienced historic levels of volatility, leading some to classify the Covid-19 pandemic as a Black Swan event. Financial markets have for the most part rebounded in 2020 at the time of writing, though many headwinds remain in terms of economic recovery. Presently, unemployment rates and other indicators remain problematic, and when coupled with rising rates of infection, portend additional monetary policy action or stimulus in both Europe and the US. At the time of writing there is no vaccine for Covid-19 though several companies such as Pfizer and Moderna are close to producing a viable vaccine.

Covid-19 or the novel Coronavirus is a pandemic that has yielded wide ranging economic turmoil and volatility across financial markets in 2020.  The first cases of Covid-19 were reported in Wuhan, China in late 2019. Since then, the virus has expanded globally, infecting millions worldwide.  The virus has been extremely controversial, namely in the United States, which became heavily politicized during the 2020 presidential election. The Covid-19 pandemic is completely unprecedented in modern times, with the most recent example being the influenza outbreak in 1918.  Financial markets and global economies were completely unprepared for the scope of the virus, causing massive shutdowns, unemployment, and other hardships in an effort to contain and mitigate the virus. How Has Covid-19 Affected Markets? Virtually every asset has in some way been affected by Covid-19. Early on, financial markets and equities collapsed, with the nadir coming in March 2020 in the United States and Europe. Widespread lockdowns led to an economic standstill, resulting in stimulus packages to help keep domestic economies functioning.  The result of this has been a depreciation of currencies such as the US dollar, with the Federal Reserve printing billions of dollars to pare economic losses. Forex markets have since experienced historic levels of volatility, leading some to classify the Covid-19 pandemic as a Black Swan event. Financial markets have for the most part rebounded in 2020 at the time of writing, though many headwinds remain in terms of economic recovery. Presently, unemployment rates and other indicators remain problematic, and when coupled with rising rates of infection, portend additional monetary policy action or stimulus in both Europe and the US. At the time of writing there is no vaccine for Covid-19 though several companies such as Pfizer and Moderna are close to producing a viable vaccine.
Read this Term outbreak as China moved rapidly towards reopening. While widespread lockdowns are a thing of the past self-imposed isolation and illness have seen impacts on the Chinese economy as workers stay home and others (at the margin) avoid going out and about. Check out the Services PMI, 41.6 is deeply contractionary. Eating out, shopping, personal services, and more – all suffering.

While this set of results will not be a positive for China trades, China-proxy trades (AUD for example), oil and other commodities, for traders and markets it will not be a surprise. We’ve all been seeing how the virus is spreading in China, despite the official Chinese media downplaying it, and how that is hitting economic activity. China’s people deserve better, hopefully it’ll come good for them soon.

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As a note, major forex centres in Asia will all be closed on Monday.

• Japan, Singapore, Hong Kong, Australia and New Zealand markets are all closed.

China is also out on Monday.

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Happy New Year to all – catch you on Tuesday morning Asia time!