China’s economy likely grew faster than the government’s annual target in Q2

China’s economy likely grew slightly above the government’s annual target in the second quarter according to the Bloomberg survey of analyst expectations.

Bloomberg is gated, but in brief:

• Bloomberg’s survey forecasting a 5.1% year-on-year GDP increase for the quarter ending in June

Growth was supported by

• strong export performance, aided by a trade truce with the U.S.,
• continued fiscal measures to bolster domestic demand

As a result, many economists believe Beijing may pause additional stimulus for now.

However, Citi and Nomura anticipate further policy easing later in the year, projecting a 10 basis point interest rate cut and a 50 basis point reduction in banks’ reserve requirements, as the effects of earlier stimulus and front-loaded exports begin to wane in the second half.

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the data is due on Tuesday, July 15, 2025 at

• 0200 GMT
• 2200 US Eastern time (on Monday, July 14, 2025)

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