Global flash PMIs painted a generally more optimistic view of business conditions, sparking some risk rallies here and there.
Dollar strength still emerged as the dominant theme for the most part of the day, though, with traders busy positioning ahead of Fed head Powell’s Jackson Hole speech.
Here’s how major asset classes performed in the latest trading sessions.
Headlines:
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New Zealand Balance of Trade for July 2025: -0.58B (0.1B forecast; 0.14B previous)
- New Zealand Exports for July 2025: 6.71B (6.7B forecast; 6.63B previous)
- New Zealand Imports for July 2025: 7.28B (6.1B forecast; 6.49B previous)
- New Zealand Credit Card Spending for July 2025: 1.4% y/y (0.9%y/y previous)
- Australia S&P Global Services PMI Flash for August 2025: 55.1 (54.4 forecast; 54.1 previous)
- Australia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash for August 2025: 52.9 (51.5 forecast; 51.3 previous)
- Japan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash for August 2025: 49.9 (49.4 forecast; 48.9 previous)
- Japan S&P Global Services PMI Flash for August 2025: 52.7 (52.8 forecast; 53.6 previous)
- Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations for August 2025: 3.9% (4.4% forecast; 4.7% previous)
- Swiss Balance of Trade for July 2025: 4.3B (4.5B forecast; 4.3B previous)
- U.K. Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks for July 2025: -1.05B (-2.1B forecast; -20.68B previous)
- Germany HCOB Services PMI Flash for August 2025: 50.1 (50.3 forecast; 50.6 previous)
- Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI Flash for August 2025: 49.9 (48.7 forecast; 49.1 previous)
- Euro area HCOB Services PMI Flash for August 2025: 50.7 (50.8 forecast; 51.0 previous)
- Euro area HCOB Manufacturing PMI Flash for August 2025: 50.5 (49.7 forecast; 49.8 previous)
- U.K. S&P Global Services PMI Flash for August 2025: 53.6 (51.7 forecast; 51.8 previous)
- U.K. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash for August 2025: 47.3 (48.6 forecast; 48.0 previous)
- Euro area Construction Output for June 2025: 1.7% y/y (1.7% y/y forecast; 2.9% y/y previous)
- U.K. CBI Industrial Trends Orders for August 2025: -33.0 (-25.0 forecast; -30.0 previous)
- U.S. and EU released a joint statement citing that tariffs relief for autos could hopefully come in a few weeks
- Canada CFIB Business Barometer for August 2025: 47.8 (50.8 forecast; 50.9 previous)
- Canada Producer Prices Index Growth Rate for July 2025: 2.6% y/y (1.9% y/y forecast; 1.7% y/y previous)
- Canada Raw Materials Prices for July 2025: 0.3% m/m (0.9% m/m forecast; 2.7% m/m previous); 0.8% y/y (1.3% y/y forecast; 1.1% y/y previous)
- U.S. Initial Jobless Claims for August 16, 2025: 235.0k (224.0k previous)
- U.S. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for August 2025: -0.3 (9.0 forecast; 15.9 previous)
- U.S. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash for August 2025: 53.3 (49.7 forecast; 49.8 previous)
- U.S. S&P Global Services PMI Flash for August 2025: 55.4 (53.0 forecast; 55.7 previous)
- Fed official Schmid reiterated that inflation risks outweigh dips in employment
- Fed official Hammack noted that both sides of the central bank’s dual mandate, inflation and jobs, are under pressure
- Euro area Consumer Confidence Flash for August 2025: -15.5 (-14.4 forecast; -14.7 previous)
- U.S. CB Leading Index for July 2025: -0.1% m/m (-0.2% m/m forecast; -0.3% m/m previous)
- U.S. Existing Home Sales for July 2025: 2.0% m/m (-0.2% m/m forecast; -2.7% m/m previous)
Broad Market Price Action:
Dollar Index, Gold, S&P 500, Oil, U.S. 10-yr Yield, Bitcoin Overlay Chart by TradingView
Market movements during the Asian session were as exciting as watching paint dry, as rangebound action was mostly the name of the game while traders braced for top-tier catalysts ahead.
Crude oil was an exception once again, with the energy commodity continuing its ascent on elevated geopolitical tensions keeping sanctions fears and global supply concerns in play. Net positive global flash PMI figures also helped propped oil higher on expectations of stronger demand, along with the EU-US joint statement on possibly seeing auto tariffs relief “hopefully” soon.
U.S. Treasury yields started to turn higher around the London session while dollar strength picked up on positioning ahead of Fed head Powell’s Jackson Hole Symposium speech today. Analysts seem to be anticipating a more cautious tone on easing, weighing on immediate rate cut expectations, with mid-tier U.S. data and flash PMIs supporting a more optimistic outlook.
On the flip side, U.S. equities inched lower on expectations of interest rates staying higher for longer, dampening hopes of stronger spending and investment activity down the line. Gold and bitcoin also sustained a bearish trajectory throughout the day, likely bogged down by dollar strength as well.
FX Market Behavior: U.S. Dollar vs. Majors:
Overlay of USD vs. Majors Chart by TradingView
Dollar domination carried on for yet another day, as market participants continued to adjust portfolios in anticipation of a potentially cautious tone from Fed head Powell during his upcoming Jackson Hole speech.
Still, there were some pockets of weakness against its major counterparts, which drew support from net positive PMI readings. Australia indicated a faster pace of growth for both manufacturing and services sectors while Japan printed a stronger than expected manufacturing PMI close enough to signal industry expansion.
In the euro zone, the region’s manufacturing industry reported a surprise return to expansion while France also saw a slower pace of contraction in the services industry. Mixed results were seen from the U.K. but the sharper contraction in the manufacturing sector did little to derail sterling strength.
Broader USD gains were seen a few hours into the London session, only taking a brief breather when the U.S. initial jobless claims and Philly Fed index surprised to the downside, before resuming a steeper climb as Fed officials discussed stronger concerns from inflation versus employment.
By session’s end, the dollar closed higher across the board, most notably against JPY (+0.58%) and CHF (+0.47%) while still logging decent gains versus AUD (+0.16%) and NZD (+0.13%).
Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Economic Calendar
- U.K. Gfk Consumer Confidence at 11:01 pm GMT
- Japan Consumer Price Index Growth Rate at 11:30 pm GMT
- U.S. Jackson Hole Symposium at 12:00 am GMT
- Germany GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final at 6:00 am GMT
- France Business Confidence at 6:45 am GMT
- Canada Retail Sales Final at 12:30 pm GMT
- Canada Manufacturing Sales Prel at 12:30 pm GMT
- U.S. Fed Chair Powell Speech at 2:00 pm GMT
All eyes and ears are on Fed Chairperson Powell’s Jackson Hole Symposium speech later in the day, as dollar traders are hoping to glean clues on whether or not a September rate cut is in order.
Stay on your toes for remarks from other central bank heads as well since these could have strong implications on future policy moves and overall market sentiment.
As always, look out for global trade developments and geopolitical headlines that could influence risk-taking. Stay nimble and don’t forget to check out our Forex Correlation Calculator when taking any trades!
