The major assets moved cautiously on Tuesday as traders weighed a mix of economic data, corporate earnings, and geopolitical headlines.
With major central bank decisions on deck, sentiment remained tentative across risk assets.
Here are headlines you may have missed in the last trading sessions!
Headlines:
- Euro Area ECB consumer inflation expectations for June: 2.6% (2.9% forecast; 2.8% previous)
- U.K. mortgage lending for June: 5.34B (0.8B forecast; 2.05B previous)
- BOE consumer credit for June: 1.42B (0.87B forecast; 0.86B previous)
- U.K. mortgage approvals for June: 64.17k (62.0k forecast; 63.03k previous)
- U.K. net lending to individuals for June: 6.76B (4.1B forecast; 2.9B previous)
- BRC: U.K. shop prices rose by 0.7% y/y in July, the fastest increase since April 2024
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IMF published its latest economic forecasts
- Global growth up by 0.2% to 3.0% for 2025 and by 0.1% to 3.1% for 2026
- U.S. growth up by 0.1% to 1.9%, 2026 forecasts up by 0.3% to 2%
- China growth up by 0.8% to 4.8%, 2026 forecasts up by 0.2% to 4.2%
- Euro Area growth up by 0.2% to 1.0% in 2025 from April, left 2026 forecast unchanged at 1.2%
- US effective tariff rate – measured by import duty revenue as a proportion of goods imports – is 17.3%, vs 24.4% in April, tariff rate for the rest of the world is 3.5% vs 4.1%
- Mexico’s President Sheinbaum expects a tariff agreement with the U.S. this week
- U.S. goods trade balance advance for June: -85.99B (-97.2B forecast; -96.59B previous)
- U.S. S&P/Case-Shiller home price for May: 2.8% y/y (3.0% forecast; 3.4% previous); 0.4% m/m (0.6% forecast; 0.8% previous)
- U.S. house price index for May: 2.8% y/y (2.5% forecast; 3.0% previous); -0.2% m/m (-0.2% forecast; -0.4% previous)
- U.S. JOLTs job openings for June: 7.44M (7.5M forecast; 7.77M previous)
- U.S. JOLTs job quits for June: 3.14M (3.21M forecast; 3.29M previous)
- U.S. CB consumer confidence for July: 97.2 (95.0 forecast; 93.0 previous)
- ECB member Makhlouf said we have reached the wait-and-see point in the ECB cycle
- U.S. President Trump said Russia faces tariffs, secondary sanctions in 10 days if no progress on Ukraine peace deal
- U.S. Dallas Fed services index for July: 2.0 (1.0 forecast; -4.4 previous)
- U.S. 7-year note auction: buyers bought 4.09% of total issuance (4.02% previous)
- U.S. API crude oil stock change for July 25: 1.54M (-0.58M previous)
- PDVSA and U.S. oil partners await U.S. authorizations to resume operations in Venezuela
Broad Market Price Action:
Dollar Index, Gold, S&P 500, Oil, U.S. 10-yr Yield, Bitcoin Overlay Chart by TradingView
The major assets danced to their own tunes on Tuesday as traders geared up for the Fed decision. Over in Europe, stocks rallied with the Stoxx 600 up 0.43%, and Germany’s DAX and France’s CAC 40 gaining over 1%, lifted by solid earnings from names like AstraZeneca, which posted a 30% profit jump, and EssilorLuxottica. Investors largely shrugged off concerns about the EU-US trade deal being “imbalanced.”
Back in the US, the mood was cooler. The S&P 500 slipped 0.30% and the Nasdaq dropped 0.38% after underwhelming reports from UnitedHealth and Boeing dampened the vibe. Gold edged higher to $3,325 as traders awaited concrete details on multiple trade negotiations, with optimism fading despite ongoing talks.
Treasury yields took a nosedive, with the 10-year falling to 4.33% after a strong 7-year auction. WTI crude oil ripped higher to $69.50 after Trump moved up his peace deadline for the Russia-Ukraine conflict and floated secondary sanctions on Russian oil buyers. Bitcoin edged lower to $117,900 as traders stayed cautious ahead of this week’s central bank decisions.
FX Market Behavior: U.S. Dollar vs. Majors:
Overlay of USD vs. Majors Chart by TradingView
The dollar kicked off Tuesday in wait-and-see mode, drifting sideways as traders kept their eyes on trade talks and the upcoming Fed decision. Things picked up at the European open, with the dollar index climbing to a five-week high thanks to a wave of optimism tied to weekend trade headlines.
Momentum faded through the European morning as traders took some profits and fresh details failed to show up. EUR/USD edged back toward 1.1580 as doubts crept in about how durable those trade agreements might be.
The next leg higher came just before the U.S. open, then again when June’s goods trade deficit narrowed sharply to $85.99 billion. That surprise gave the dollar a fresh push, though mixed data took some wind out of its sails. JOLTS job openings missed slightly at 7.437 million, while consumer confidence jumped past forecasts to 97.2.
By the close, the dollar had booked gains against most major currencies. The exception was the yen. USD/JPY slipped to 148.12 as traders leaned into safe-haven flows ahead of a busy stretch of event risk.
Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Economic Calendar
- France GDP growth rate prelim for Q2 2025 at 5:30 am GMT
- Germany retail sales for June at 6:00 am GMT
- Swiss KOF leading indicators for July at 7:00 am GMT
- Swiss economic sentiment index for July at 8:00 am GMT
- Germany GDP growth rate flash for Q2 2025 at 8:00 am GMT
- Euro Area consumer inflation expectations for July at 9:00 am GMT
- Euro Area consumer confidence for July at 9:00 am GMT
- Euro Area GDP growth rate flash for Q2 2025 at 9:00 am GMT
- U.S. MBA mortgage applications for July 25 at 11:00 am GMT
- U.S. ADP national employment report for July at 12:15 pm GMT
- U.S. GDP growth rate advance for Q2 2025 at 12:30 pm GMT
- U.S. core PCE prices advance for Q2 2025 at 12:30 pm GMT
- U.S. GDP price index advance for Q2 2025 at 12:30 pm GMT
- U.S. Treasury refunding announcement at 12:30 pm GMT
- Canada BOC interest rate decision for July at 1:45 pm GMT
- U.S. pending home sales for June at 2:00 pm GMT
- Canada BOC press conference at 2:30 pm GMT
- U.S. EIA crude oil stocks change for July 25 at 2:30 pm GMT
- U.S. FOMC statement for July at 6:00 pm GMT
- U.S. FOMC press conference at 6:30 pm GMT
- RBA member Hauser speech at 11:20 pm GMT
- Japan industrial production prelim for June at 11:50 pm GMT
- Japan retail sales for June at 11:50 pm GMT
Traders are in for a wild ride, with top-tier data and central bank decisions packed into the next trading sessions. Euro pairs could get jolted early by German and French GDP prints and a batch of sentiment surveys that may sway ECB rate expectations.
In the U.S., ADP jobs, Q2 GDP, and core PCE could jolt price action ahead of the FOMC and BOC decisions, which may drive sharp USD and CAD moves and overall risk sentiment if either central bank shifts tone or guidance.
As always, stay nimble and don’t forget to check out our Forex Correlation Calculator when taking any trades!
