Daily Broad Market Recap – November 18, 2025

Check out the forex news and economic updates you may have missed in the latest trading session!

Forex News Headlines & Data:

• Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda reaffirmed on Tuesday that the central bank will remain data-dependent for any future rate increases and emphasized a cautious approach, noting that the BOJ is gradually winding down its easing support to achieve its price stability goal smoothly.
• Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting Minutes: held cash rate unchanged at 3.60% in November, citing higher-than-expected inflation in the September quarter and evidence that some inflationary pressures may persist. The Board decided that policy should remain cautious and data-dependent, noting they can afford to be patient while assessing whether monetary conditions are still restrictive enough and monitoring inflation and labor market dynamics closely.
• Canada Housing Starts for October 2025: 232.8k (265.0k forecast; 279.2k previous)
• Bank of England member Swati Dhingra shared on Tuesday that the UK is experiencing persistent weak consumption despite some growth in income, emphasizing that underlying demand in the economy remains subdued.
• U.S. ADP Employment Change Weekly for November 1, 2025: -2.5k (-11.25k previous)
• U.S. NY Fed Services Activity Index for November 2025: -21.7 (-23.6 previous)
• New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index for November 18, 2025: -3.0% (-2.1% forecast; -2.4% previous)
• U.S. Factory Orders for August 2025: 1.4% m/m (1.4% m/m forecast; -1.3% m/m previous)
• U.S. NAHB Housing Market Index for November 2025: 38.0 (37.0 forecast; 37.0 previous)
• Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill stated that he does not expect his view on interest rates to change much in the near term, cautioning that underlying price pressures are not as strong as headline inflation suggests but remain above the central bank’s target.
• On Tuesday, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Barkin said that inflation remains above the Fed’s target and job growth is down, but also noted positive signs such as consumer pushback and productivity improvements limiting inflation.

Broad Market Price Action:

Tuesday’s session was characterized by a risk-off Asia session followed by a gradual recovery through London and U.S. trading hours, with commodities and cryptocurrencies rebounding while equities remained under pressure from tech sector concerns.

The S&P 500 declined 0.33% to close at 6,653, extending its pullback from late-October record highs as technology shares remained under pressure ahead of Nvidia’s high-stakes earnings report Wednesday evening. The index experienced modest intraday volatility but largely ranged throughout the session, with the early Asia weakness carrying through as investors remained cautious about AI spending sustainability and lofty tech valuations. Despite the decline, the selloff remained orderly with no clear acute catalyst driving the move.

Gold posted gains of 0.80% to trade around $4,078, recovering from early-session weakness during the London and U.S. sessions. The precious metal’s advance likely correlated with ongoing safe-haven demand stemming from elevated geopolitical tensions between China and Japan, alongside persistent concerns about global fiscal sustainability and central bank policy paths. The timing of gold’s recovery aligned with broader risk asset stabilization during European hours, though it’s worth noting there were no direct gold-specific catalysts to point to for the intraday reversal.

WTI crude oil rallied 2.14% to close near $60.70, marking a strong recovery from overnight lows hit during the Asian session. The rebound began during the London morning and accelerated through U.S. trading hours, though there were no clear oil-specific developments to explain the move. It’s possible the rally represented technical buying after recent weakness, or that traders positioned ahead of upcoming inventory data. The recovery came despite ongoing concerns about demand and no fresh supply disruption news.

Bitcoin gained 1.44% to trade above $93,000, bouncing back sharply after suffering the steepest losses among major assets during Tuesday’s Asia session, where it dropped over 2%. The cryptocurrency’s volatility was extreme in both directions, with the Asia decline lacking any clear crypto-specific news catalyst. The subsequent recovery through London and U.S. hours possibly reflected technical buying and short-covering after the overnight selloff, though Bitcoin’s moves remained disconnected from traditional risk asset behavior as equities continued to languish.

The 10-year Treasury yield declined 0.39% to trade around 4.10%, as bond buyers emerged following the release of delayed U.S. unemployment claims data showing 232,000 initial jobless claims for the week ending October 18—roughly in line with mid-September levels and suggesting stable labor market conditions. The modest yield decline also coincided with the recovery in risk assets during U.S. hours, though the magnitude of the bond move was relatively muted compared to recent sessions’ volatility.

FX Market Behavior: U.S. Dollar vs. Majors:

Overlay of USD vs. Majors Forex Chart by TradingView

The U.S. dollar traded in choppy, mixed fashion on Tuesday, posting modest gains against commodity currencies while losing ground to safe havens and the euro, ultimately closing essentially flat as competing forces balanced out across the trading day.

During the Asian session, the greenback traded mixed and choppy against major currencies, with no clear directional bias as markets digested the previous day’s developments. The RBA Meeting Minutes released early in the session struck a marginally hawkish tone—noting that the Board views policy as only slightly restrictive and expects inflation to remain above target until mid-2026—but the Australian dollar showed little sustained reaction to the news. Broader risk-off sentiment appeared to dominate Asia trading, possibly related to escalating China-Japan tensions as China banned travel by state enterprise employees and halted Japanese film releases following Prime Minister Takaichi’s suggestion that a Chinese attack on Taiwan could trigger a military response from Japan.

The London morning session saw the dollar arguably develop a slightly positive lean heading into U.S. trading hours, with USD gaining modestly against several major currencies. However, there were no clear European or UK data releases to explain the dollar’s modest strength. BOJ Governor Ueda’s comments reaffirming the central bank’s gradual policy adjustment path and Japan’s Finance Minister Katayama’s strengthened warnings about yen weakness past the 155 level provided some backdrop, but these developments seemed to have limited direct impact on USD direction, instead primarily affecting JPY crosses.

During the U.S. session, the dollar dipped slightly after the open before rebounding and trading choppy for the remainder of Tuesday’s session. The most notable currency-specific move came around 9:00 AM EST when Canadian housing starts data badly missed expectations (232.8k vs 265.0k forecast), triggering slight weakness in the Canadian dollar, that quickly turned into another intraday buying opportunity in the Loonie’s uptrend.

The delayed release of U.S. unemployment claims data for the week ending October 18 showed 232,000 initial claims, roughly in line with conditions from mid-September, suggesting the low-firing, low-hiring environment remains intact. The data had minimal market impact given its staleness, though it provided some confirmation that labor market conditions haven’t deteriorated dramatically.

Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Barkin’s speech around midday produced some intraday volatility but offered no major policy revelations. His comments balanced concerns about above-target inflation and slowing job growth with positive signs of productivity improvements and easing unemployment pressures, maintaining the Fed’s data-dependent stance without tipping the scales toward immediate policy action.

At Tuesday’s close, the dollar ended mixed against major currencies—posting gains versus the Swiss franc, Japanese yen, euro, and British pound, while losing ground to commodity-linked currencies like the Canadian and Australian dollars (despite their respective weak domestic data, suggesting broader commodity currency strength or positioning dynamics outweighed the negative fundamentals). The net result was an essentially neutral dollar performance, with the greenback’s gains against European and safe-haven currencies roughly offsetting its losses against the commodity bloc.

The day’s price action suggested no single overriding narrative dominated dollar trading, with currency moves instead reflecting individual country-specific developments—particularly Canada’s housing weakness and Australia’s hawkish-but-not-enough RBA minutes—rather than a broad-based shift in dollar sentiment or Fed policy expectations.

Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Economic Calendar

• New Zealand PPI Input for Q3 2025 at 9:45 pm GMT
• Japan Machinery Orders for September 2025 at 11:50 pm GMT
• Australia Westpac Leading Index for October 2025 at 12:00 am GMT
• Australia Wage Price Index for September 30, 2025 at 12:30 am GMT
• China FDI (YTD) for October 2025
• U.K. Inflation Updates for October 2025 at 7:00 am GMT
• Euro area Current Account for September 2025 at 9:00 am GMT
• Euro area Inflation Rate Final for October 2025 at 10:00 am GMT
• Euro area Labour Cost Index Flash for September 30, 2025 at 10:00 am GMT
• Euro area ECB Buch Speech at 11:30 am GMT
• U.S. MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate for November 14, 2025 at 12:00 pm GMT
• U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications for November 14, 2025 at 12:00 pm GMT
• U.S. EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change for November 14, 2025 at 3:30 pm GMT
• Canada BoC Vincent Speech at 5:45 pm GMT
• FOMC Minutes at 7:00 pm GMT
• U.S. Fed Williams Speech at 7:00 pm GMT

Wednesday’s calendar is headlined by UK inflation data for October, which will likely spark short-term volatility in the British pound as traders assess the Bank of England’s rate path given recent dovish commentary from policymakers like Swati Dhingra. The data comes at a critical juncture as the BoE balances persistent domestic price pressures against weakening consumption trends.

The FOMC meeting minutes from the Fed’s most recent policy decision will be scrutinized for any fresh insights into the committee’s thinking on the pace of future rate cuts, though the probability of market-moving revelations appears relatively low given the Fed’s recent public commentary has been consistent. Still, any unexpected hawkish or dovish language could trigger volatility in the dollar and Treasury markets during the evening release.

Beyond the scheduled data, traders will remain highly sensitive to any fresh developments on the China-Japan diplomatic front, where tensions have escalated rapidly with China implementing travel restrictions and cultural exchange cancellations following Prime Minister Takaichi’s Taiwan comments. Any further economic countermeasures or attempts at de-escalation could drive moves in the yen and risk assets more broadly.

Additionally, ongoing developments around global tariff policies and any commentary from central bank speakers could provide intraday volatility, particularly given the unsettled backdrop in equity markets ahead of Nvidia’s earnings and persistent concerns about AI spending sustainability.

Stay frosty out there, forex friends, and don’t forget to check out our Forex Correlation Calculator when planning to take on risk!