The major assets started the week searching for direction as investors awaited key economic data and FOMC members’ comments.
Check out the headlines and economic updates you may have missed in the latest trading sessions!
Headlines:
- Estonia says Russian fighter jets violated its airspace Friday afternoon
- Iraq’s federal and Kurdish regional governments reached a deal to restart crude exports via Turkey
- China Loan Prime Rate 1Y for September 20, 2025: 3.0% (3.0% forecast; 3.0% previous); 5Y at 3.5% (3.5% forecast; 3.5% previous)
- RBA Gov. Bullock said domestic data have been “in line with our expectations or, if anything, slightly stronger“
- Canada Raw Materials Prices for August 2025: 3.2% y/y (2.5% y/y forecast; 0.8% y/y previous); -0.6% m/m (1.0% m/m forecast; 0.3% m/m previous)
- Canada Producer Prices Index for August 2025: 4.0% y/y (4.3% y/y forecast; 2.6% y/y previous); 0.5% m/m (0.8% m/m forecast; 0.7% m/m previous)
- U.S. Chicago Fed National Activity Index for August 2025: -0.12 (-0.17 forecast; -0.19 previous)
- Euro Area Consumer Confidence Flash for September 2025: -14.9 (-15.6 forecast; -15.5 previous)
- FOMC member Musalem said on Monday that he sees ‘limited room’ for more interest rate cuts
- FOMC member Bostic sees no further rate cut this year
- FOMC member Hammack said the Fed should be “very cautious” in removing restrictive monetary policy, thinks rates are “only a short distance to neutral”
- In his first public speech, FOMC member Miran said that he sees current monetary policy as very restrictive, thinks the neutral rate is “in the mid-2% area, almost 2 percentage points lower than current policy.”
- Nvidia announced $100 billion investment plans in ChatGPT-parent OpenAI
Broad Market Price Action:
Dollar Index, Gold, S&P 500, Oil, U.S. 10-yr Yield, Bitcoin Overlay Chart by TradingView
Gold surged to fresh record highs above $3,740, powered by expectations for continued Fed easing after last week’s initial rate cut, with Fed Governor Miran advocating for aggressive policy loosening to the “mid-2 percent area.” The precious metal’s rally accelerated through European and U.S. sessions, supported by geopolitical tensions and fiscal deficit concerns.
Bitcoin plunged sharply without any clear catalysts, briefly breaking below $112,000 with over $1.5 billion in leveraged positions liquidated despite equity strength. Oil remained range-bound near $62.50 as oversupply concerns from increased Iraqi exports and elevated Kuwaiti production capacity offset geopolitical risk premiums.
U.S. stock indices reached fresh record highs with tech leadership after Nvidia announced up to $100 billion investment in OpenAI, while European markets declined on auto sector weakness. Treasury yields showed little direction, with the 10-year ending marginally higher at 4.143% after choppy trading as markets balanced hawkish Fed commentary against Miran’s dovish dissent.
FX Market Behavior: U.S. Dollar vs. Majors:
Overlay of USD vs. Majors Chart by TradingView
The dollar weakened across most major pairs on Monday as markets positioned for continued Fed easing following last week’s initial rate cut. USD showed early strength during Asian hours, extending Friday’s late recovery, but momentum reversed ahead of the London open as risk appetite improved and expectations for continued Fed easing weighed on the Greenback.
During U.S. hours, the dollar briefly attempted to stabilize, but dovish commentary from Fed Governor Miran, advocating for rates in the “mid-2 percent area,” reinforced selling pressure. Record equity highs further undermined safe-haven dollar demand.
The Greenback closed broadly weaker, falling 0.4% on the index, though it managed gains against the Canadian dollar after hot Canadian PPI data complicated the BOC’s easing path.
Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Economic Calendar
- Swiss Current Account for Q2 2025 at 7:00 am GMT
- Euro Area HCOB Manufacturing & Services PMIs Flash for September at 8:00 am GMT
- U.K. S&P Global Manufacturing & Services PMI Flash for September at 8:30 am GMT
- U.K. BOE member Pill Speech at 9:00 am GMT
- U.K. CBI Industrial Trends Orders for September at 10:00 am GMT
- Canada New Housing Price Index for August at 12:30 pm GMT
- U.S. Current Account for Q2 2025 at 12:30 pm GMT
- U.S. Fed Bowman Speech at 1:00 pm GMT
- U.S. S&P Global Manufacturing & Services PMI Flash for September 2025 at 1:45 pm GMT
- U.S. Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for September at 2:00 pm GMT
- U.S. Fed Bostic Speech at 2:00 pm GMT
- U.S. Fed Chair Powell Speech at 4:35 pm GMT
- Canada BOC Macklem Speech at 6:30 pm GMT
- U.S. API Crude Oil Stock Change for September 19, 2025, at 8:30 pm GMT
The London session could see heightened volatility as flash PMI releases for the Euro Area and the UK provide critical insights into Q3 growth momentum and whether manufacturing weakness is spreading to services.
In the U.S., flash PMIs could validate or challenge the Fed’s hawkish pivot, but the main event is Powell’s speech where markets will scrutinize every word for clues about whether his “risk management” characterization of last week’s cut remains intact, especially after the strong Philadelphia Fed data, with USD likely to strengthen if he maintains his hawkish tone or weaken sharply if he walks back recent comments.
As always, look out for global trade developments and geopolitical headlines that could influence overall market sentiment. Stay nimble and don’t forget to check out our Forex Correlation Calculator when taking any trades!
