Daily Broad Market Recap – September 25, 2025

Uncle Sam’s mid-tier reports surprised to the upside and forced traders to reconsider aggressive Fed rate cut expectations.

How did they affect the major assets’ price action on Thursday?

Check out the headlines and economic updates you may have missed in the latest trading sessions!

Headlines:

• FOMC member Mary Daly supports further rate cuts but has offered no timeline
• BOJ meeting minutes showed some members favor raising interest rates in the future even as they unanimously decided to keep policies steady in July
• Germany GfK Consumer Confidence for October 2025: -22.3 (-23.0 forecast; -23.6 previous)
• France Consumer Confidence for September 2025: 87.0 (86.0 forecast; 87.0 previous)
• Swiss SNB Interest Rate Decision for September 25, 2025: 0.0% (0.0% forecast; 0.0% previous)
• U.K. CBI Distributive Trades for September 2025: -29.0 (-28.0 forecast; -32.0 previous)
• Canada Average Weekly Earnings for July 2025: 3.3% y/y (3.6% y/y forecast; 3.7% y/y previous)
• USD Saw Broad Rallies on Upbeat GDP Revision, Strong Jobs Data
  • U.S. GDP Growth Rate Final for June 30, 2025: 3.8% q/q (3.3% q/q forecast; -0.5% q/q previous)
    • U.S. PCE Prices Final for June 30, 2025: 2.1% q/q (2.0% q/q forecast; 3.7% q/q previous)
    • U.S. Core PCE Prices Final for June 30, 2025: 2.6% q/q (2.5% q/q forecast; 3.5% q/q previous)
  • U.S. Durable Goods Orders for August 2025: 2.9% m/m (-0.7% m/m forecast; -2.8% m/m previous)
    • U.S. Core Durable Goods Orders for August 2025: 0.4% m/m (0.0% m/m forecast; 1.1% m/m previous)
  • U.S. Initial Jobless Claims for September 20, 2025: 218.0k (240.0k forecast; 231.0k previous)
• U.S. Goods Trade Balance Adv for August 2025: -85.5B (-93.0B forecast; -103.6B previous)
• U.S. Wholesale Inventories for August 2025: -0.2% m/m (-0.1% m/m forecast; 0.1% m/m previous)
• U.S. Existing Home Sales for August 2025: 4.0M (4.0M forecast; 4.01M previous); -0.2% m/m (-0.2% m/m forecast; 2.0% m/m previous)
• U.S. Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index for September 2025: 4.0 (-5.0 forecast; 0.0 previous)
• FOMC member Miran favors front-loading interest rate cuts
• FOMC member Goolsbee pushed back against front-loading rate cuts, expressed concern about tariff-driven inflation
• FOMC member Schmid said current policies are only “slightly restrictive,” favors data-dependent approach to future decisions
• FOMC member Logan pushed to ditch fed funds rate for tri-party general collateral rate as main policy target
• FOMC member Bowman said inflation is close enough to the central bank’s target, and job market is weakening enough to justify more interest rate cuts

Broad Market Price Action:

Markets struggled to find direction Thursday as stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data muddied the waters for Fed policy expectations.

The 10-year Treasury yield pushed higher to 4.17%, reflecting growing doubts about aggressive rate cuts after U.S. GDP surprised at 3.8% annualized and jobless claims fell to just 218,000. This yield backup weighed on equity markets, with the S&P 500 extending its pullback for a third day while European bourses similarly retreated, particularly Germany’s DAX, which led declines as industrial machinery import probes added to the region’s woes.

Crude oil showed surprising resilience, recovering from early weakness near $64 to close at $65.20 as Trump’s pressure campaign on Russian energy buyers offset concerns about Kurdistan exports resuming. Gold managed a modest gain despite dollar strength, seemingly caught between geopolitical support from escalating Ukraine tensions and headwinds from rising real yields.

Bitcoin fared worse, breaking below $110,000 as crypto struggled with the combination of higher yields making traditional assets more attractive and risk appetite generally souring. The divergence across assets reflected a market wrestling with whether the U.S. economy’s resilience was a blessing or a curse for asset prices stretched by recent rallies.

FX Market Behavior: U.S. Dollar vs. Majors:

Overlay of USD vs. Majors Chart by TradingView

The dollar started Thursday on the defensive, extending Wednesday’s late pullback as traders digested Fed’s Daly’s noncommittal timeline for further cuts and BOJ minutes showing members’ inclination toward gradual rate normalization.

The Greenback found its footing near the London open, though commodity currencies initially outperformed with support from firmer gold prices in Asian trading. The Swiss National Bank’s decision to hold rates at zero briefly lifted the dollar, but the move quickly faded as the non-event failed to provide lasting directional catalyst.

Dollar bears attempted another push lower midway through European hours, but the currency found increasingly solid support as Wall Street’s opening bell approached. The real fireworks came with the US data dump. U.S. GDP was revised to 3.8%, durable goods surged 2.9%, and jobless claims dropped to 218,000, sending the dollar sharply higher across the board.

Fed officials reinforced the move with divergent but largely cautious commentary: Miran advocated rapid easing to neutral, Goolsbee warned against front-loading cuts amid tariff-driven inflation concerns, Schmid called policy “slightly restrictive and in the right place,” while Logan focused on technical framework changes.

The dollar leaned bullish through the New York close, when the dollar capped the day higher against its major counterparts.

Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Economic Calendar

• Japan BOJ member Noguchi Speech at 5:30 am GMT
• Euro Area ECB Consumer Inflation Expectations for August 2025
• Euro Area ECB President Lagarde Speech at 9:30 am GMT
• France Unemployment Benefit Claims for August 2025 at 10:00 am GMT
• Canada GDP Prel for August 2025 at 12:30 pm GMT
• Canada Wholesale Sales Prel for August 2025 at 12:30 pm GMT
• U.S. Core PCE Price Index for August 2025 at 12:30 pm GMT
  • U.S. Core Personal Consumption Expenditure for August 2025 at 12:30 pm GMT
  • U.S. Personal Income & Spending for August 2025 at 12:30 pm GMT
• U.S. Fed Barkin Speech at 1:00 pm GMT
• U.S. UoM Consumer Sentiment Index for September 2025 at 2:00 pm GMT
  • U.S. Michigan Inflation Expectations Final for September 2025 at 2:00 pm GMT
• Canada Budget Balance for July 2025 at 3:00 pm GMT
• U.S. Fed Bowman Speech at 5:00 pm GMT
• U.S. Fed Musalem Speech at 5:30 pm GMT
• U.S. Fed Bostic Speech at 10:00 pm GMT

Markets are in for a BUSY day with tons of potential sentiment-changers on tap. ECB President Lagarde’s speech could the tone for euro direction, especially given the SNB’s dovish hold yesterday and mounting European growth concerns.

But traders are really on the lookout for the U.S. Core PCE data during the U.S. session. Markets will likely remain sensitive to any inflation surprises following yesterday’s stronger U.S. economic data that already trimmed rate cut expectations.

With multiple Fed speakers scheduled throughout the U.S. session amid an already divided FOMC, we could see choppy price action as traders navigate what may be conflicting signals on the pace of future easing.

As always, look out for global trade developments and geopolitical headlines that could influence overall market sentiment. Stay nimble and don’t forget to check out our Forex Correlation Calculator when taking any trades!