The gold rally carried on for yet another day in a row, as market uncertainty lingered and continued to boost demand for safe-haven assets.
Meanwhile, bonds continued to sell off mostly on account of political jitters while crude oil took a hit on OPEC+ news.
Check out the headlines and economic updates you may have missed in the latest trading sessions!
Headlines:
- Wall Street Journal reported that Bessent is starting with Fed head interviews this week
- U.S. court ruled in favor of Google in landmark antitrust case, spurring rally in Alphabet shares and gains for equity futures
- Chinese President Xi staged a military parade attended by North Korea’s Kim Jong Un and Russia’s Vladimir Putin
- Australia GDP Growth Rate for June 30, 2025: 1.8% y/y (1.6% y/y forecast; 1.3% y/y previous); GDP Growth Rate QoQ: 0.6% q/q (0.4% q/q forecast; 0.2% q/q previous)
- China RatingDog Services PMI for August 2025: 53.0 (52.4 forecast; 52.6 previous)
- Euro area HCOB Services PMI Final for August 2025: 50.5 (50.7 forecast; 51.0 previous)
- France HCOB Services PMI Final for August 2025: 49.8 (49.7 forecast; 48.5 previous)
- Germany HCOB Services PMI Final for August 2025: 49.3 (50.1 forecast; 50.6 previous)
- U.K. S&P Global Services PMI Final for August 2025: 54.2 (53.6 forecast; 51.8 previous)
- Euro area PPI YoY for July 2025: 0.2% y/y (0.3% y/y forecast; 0.6% y/y previous); 0.4% m/m (0.5% m/m forecast; 0.8% m/m previous)
- U.K. Finance Minister Reeves assured that U.K. economy is not broken and that fiscal rules are non-negotiable
- During Monetary Policy Report hearings, BOE Governor Bailey mentioned that there is doubt over future interest rate cuts
- New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index for September 2, 2025: -4.3% (0.2% forecast; -0.3% previous)
- U.S. MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate for August 29, 2025: 6.64% (6.69% previous); U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications for August 29, 2025: -1.2% (-0.5% previous)
- Canada Labor Productivity for June 30, 2025: -1.0% q/q (0.15% q/q forecast; 0.2% q/q previous)
- U.S. Factory Orders for July 2025: -1.3% m/m (-1.1% m/m forecast; -4.8% m/m previous)
- U.S. Factory Orders ex Transportation for July 2025: 0.6% (0.3% forecast; 0.4% previous)
- U.S. JOLTs Job Openings for July 2025: 7.18M (7.3M forecast; 7.44M previous); U.S. JOLTs Job Quits for July 2025: 3.21M (3.0M forecast; 3.14M previous)
- Fed official Musalem reiterated that current policy is appropriate given economic data
- Fed official Bostic mentioned that a single quarter-point rate cut is still possible this year
- Fed Beige Book: Majority of districts reported little to no change in economic activity
- OPEC+ produced more barrels of oil than expected in August and may be due to announce another boost in production
Broad Market Price Action:
Dollar Index, Gold, S&P 500, Oil, U.S. 10-yr Yield, Bitcoin Overlay Chart by TradingView
Market participants appeared to be biting their nails early in the day, keeping most asset classes moving cautiously sideways while awaiting the next round of headlines.
Global bond yields remained elevated, with JGB yields extending their climb as the 20-year yield reached its highest level since 1999 on account of increased political uncertainty in the country. Geopolitical jitters also came in play after Chinese President Xi staged a military parade attended by North Korea’s Kim Jong Un and Russia’s Vladimir Putin.
As a result, safe-haven gold held its ground during the Asian and London sessions before resuming its rally to fresh record highs later in the day. The precious metal tested the $3,563 area and closed 0.68% higher by the end of the New York session.
Crude oil, which was already on wobbly ground early on, caught another bearish wave when reports revealed that the OPEC+ was considering another output boost in their upcoming meeting. The oil cartel also revealed that they pumped 400K more barrels per day than expected in August, triggering further losses during U.S. market hours.
FX Market Behavior: U.S. Dollar vs. Majors:
Overlay of USD vs. Majors Chart by TradingView
The safe-haven dollar caught a bid during the Asian session, only dipping briefly against the Australian dollar when the country’s GDP figure beat market estimates and dampened RBA easing expectations. USD raked in strong gains versus JPY, which was weighed down by the surge in Japanese bond yields.
However, the dollar rally was cut short and sharply reversed as soon as London markets opened, as traders appeared to position for potential misses in U.S. employment data. The JOLTS job openings report reflected fewer than expected hiring opportunities than expected, likely spurring expectations for a weaker NFP print.
Meanwhile commentary from FOMC officials was mostly neutral, with Fed official Musalem reiterating the need to wait and see before adjusting policy while Fed official Bostic suggested that a single quarter-point rate cut could be enough for this year. The Fed Beige Book barely had any clues for the NFP release, as majority of districts reported little to no change in activity.
By session’s end, the dollar wound up weakest against sterling, which probably drew some support from words of reassurance by Finance Minister Reeves who noted that the U.K. economy is “not broken” and that they would stick to fiscal spending plans.
Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Economic Calendar
- Swiss Consumer Price Index Growth Rate at 6:30 am GMT
- Swiss Unemployment Rate at 7:00 am GMT
- Euro area HCOB Construction PMI at 7:30 am GMT
- U.K. S&P Global Construction PMI at 8:30 am GMT
- Euro area Retail Sales Growth Rate at 9:00 am GMT
- U.S. Challenger Job Cuts at 11:30 am GMT
- U.S. ADP National Employment Report at 12:15 pm GMT
- Canada Balance of Trade at 12:30 pm GMT
- U.S. Balance of Trade at 12:30 pm GMT
- U.S. Nonfarm Productivity Final at 12:30 pm GMT
- U.S. Unit Labor Costs at 12:30 pm GMT
- U.S. Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 pm GMT
- Canada S&P Global Services PMI for August 2025 at 1:30 pm GMT
- U.S. S&P Global Services PMI Final for August 2025 at 1:45 pm GMT
- U.S. ISM Services PMI at 2:00 pm GMT
- U.S. EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change at 4:00 pm GMT
- U.S. Fed Williams Speech at 4:05 pm GMT
- U.S. Fed Balance Sheet at 8:30 pm GMT
Now that the U.S. NFP release is fast-approaching, dollar traders are likely to stay laser-focused on jobs-related data, including the ADP non-farm employment change, Challenger job cuts and ISM services PMI all lined up for today’s New York session.
Prior to that, the Swiss CPI and jobless rate figures are also worth a look since these could have strong implications for SNB policy changes moving forward.
As always, look out for global trade developments and geopolitical headlines that could influence overall market sentiment. Stay nimble and don’t forget to check out our Forex Correlation Calculator when taking any trades!
