It’s the final session of September and the third quarter, with US equities posting modest gains & USD only slightly down despite mounting concerns about an imminent U.S. government shutdown. Gold continued its relentless march to fresh records while oil remained under pressure from supply glut worries.
Check out the headlines and economic updates you may have missed in the latest trading sessions!
Headlines & Data:
- Australia Building Permits Prel for August 2025: -6.0% m/m (-4.0% m/m forecast; -8.2% m/m previous)
- China NBS Manufacturing PMI for September 2025: 49.8 (49.9 forecast; 49.4 previous) – sixth straight month of contraction
- China NBS Non Manufacturing PMI for September 2025: 50.0 (50.7 forecast; 50.3 previous)
- Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision: 3.6% (3.6% forecast; 3.6% previous) – held steady as expected, but Bullock sets a cautious tone
- Germany Consumer Price Index Growth Rate Prel for September 2025: 2.4% y/y (2.3% y/y forecast; 2.2% y/y previous); 0.2% m/m (0.1% m/m forecast; 0.1% m/m previous)
- U.K. GDP Growth Rate Final for Q2 2025: 0.3% q/q (0.3% q/q forecast; 0.7% q/q previous); 1.4% y/y (1.2% y/y forecast; 1.3% y/y previous)
- U.S. JOLTs Job Openings for August 2025: 7.23M (7.1M forecast; 7.18M previous)
- U.S. CB Consumer Confidence for September 2025: 94.2 (95.0 forecast; 97.4 previous) – disappointing drop
- U.S. Chicago PMI for September 2025: 40.6 (41.0 forecast; 41.5 previous) – deep in contraction territory
- Government shutdown deadline looms at midnight with no deal in sight
Broad Market Price Action:
Dollar Index, Gold, S&P 500, Oil, U.S. 10-yr Yield, Bitcoin Overlay Chart by TradingView
Tuesday’s session saw stocks post modest gains late in the day even as concerns mounted about a looming US government shutdown possibly delaying the release of key labor-market data that could provide clues about how fast the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates. The trading day overall was characterized by low volatility as traders remained cautious throughout.
The S&P 500 ended the session 0.3% higher at 6,676.9 while the Nasdaq 100 rose 0.4% after climbing nearly 1% earlier. The initial strength possibly reflected relief that China’s manufacturing PMI showed marginal improvement and Australia’s RBA held rates steady as expected. However, gains moderated as disappointing U.S. consumer confidence data and the Chicago PMI’s continued contraction reminded traders of underlying economic fragility.
Gold came out on top once again. It chopped sideways but ultimately moved higher before the close, establishing another record high at $3,853.1 per ounce. The precious metal’s unstoppable advance reflected a potent combination of government shutdown fears, Fed rate cut expectations, and lingering concerns about fiscal sustainability. Financial markets fear a shutdown particularly because U.S. statistics agencies would halt economic data releases that are key for the Federal Reserve’s decision making process.
WTI crude oil remained under pressure, falling 0.7% to $62.30, likely weighed down by expectations that OPEC+ would consider additional production increases at their upcoming Sunday meeting. The prospect of more supply entering an already oversupplied market was also a likely focus as fresh major developments on the Gaza or Ukraine front were lacking.
Bitcoin showed resilience despite broader market uncertainties, recapturing its position above the psychologically important $114,000 level after dipping during the Asia and London session, mostly likely due to traders balancing shutdown concerns against the cryptocurrency’s appeal as an alternative store of value.
The 10-year Treasury yield mostly traded sideways for the session, seeing a lower rate momentarily as bond traders ramped up bond positions ahead of the government shutdown. There was some giveback ahead of the close, helping the yield close around 4.10%.
FX Market Behavior: U.S. Dollar vs. Majors:
Overlay of USD vs. Majors Chart by TradingView
The U.S. dollar experienced notable weakness on Tuesday, declining against most major currencies as shutdown risks and mixed economic data weighed on sentiment.
The greenback started the Asian session under pressure, taking no comfort from net disappointing China PMI data, or the RBA’s decision to hold rates steady. US government shutdown concerns and Fed rate cut expectations were the likely drivers for USD weakness through most of the day’s trade.
We did get a fresh US catalysts during the U.S. morning session when the JOLTs job openings data, while slightly beating expectations at 7.23 million, was overshadowed by the sharp drop in consumer confidence to 94.2 from 97.4. This correlated with a brief drop in USD against the majors before rebounding into the London close.
The Aussie emerged as the notable out performer, likely due to the RBA holding off on rate cuts, with the yen following closely as it likely benefited from safe haven flows.
Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Economic Calendar
- New Zealand Building Permits for August 2025 at 9:45 pm GMT
- Australia AIG Manufacturing Index for September 2025 at 11:00 pm GMT
- Japan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final for September 2025 at 12:30 am GMT
- U.K. Nationwide Housing Prices for September 2025 at 6:00 am GMT
- Swiss Retail Sales for August 2025 at 6:30 am GMT
- Swiss procure.ch Manufacturing PMI for September 2025 at 7:30 am GMT
- Euro area HCOB Manufacturing PMI Final for September 2025 at 8:00 am GMT
- U.K. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final for September 2025 at 8:30 am GMT
- Euro area Consumer Price Index Growth Rate Flash for September 2025 at 9:00 am GMT
- U.S. MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate & Application for September 26, 2025 at 11:00 am GMT
- U.S. ADP National Employment Report for September 2025 at 12:15 pm GMT
- Swiss SNB Quarterly Bulletin at 1:00 pm GMT
- Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for September 2025 at 1:30 pm GMT
- U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI for September 2025 at 2:00 pm GMT
- U.S. EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change for September 26, 2025 at 2:30 pm GMT
- Canada BoC Summary of Deliberations at 5:30 pm GMT
Wednesday’s calendar features two critical U.S. releases that could significantly impact markets, particularly given the risk that Friday’s official payrolls report may be delayed by a government shutdown.
The ADP employment data, forecast at just 45,000 jobs, will be scrutinized for signs of further labor market deterioration that could cement expectations for October Fed easing. Any significant miss could trigger sharp dollar weakness and support risk assets.
The ISM Manufacturing PMI update will reveal whether the factory sector can escape contraction territory, with readings below 50 likely reinforcing recession fears and potentially pushing Treasury yields lower while supporting gold’s advance toward $4,000.
