EUR/USD Forecast – Prices, Charts, and Analysis
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How to Trade EUR/USD
Most Read: Markets Week Ahead: Fed and BoE Decisions, US Jobs Data, Microsoft, Apple, Amazon Report
The German economy missed slipping into a technical recession by the smallest of margins after the country’s Q3 GDP was upgraded to flat from -0.1%. The first look at German Q4 GDP came in line with market forecasts at -0.3%.
According to The Federal Statistical Office (Destatis),
‘The gross domestic product (GDP) fell by 0.3% in the fourth quarter of 2023 compared with the third quarter of 2023 after adjustment for price, seasonal and calendar variations. After the German economy more or less stagnated in the first three quarters, economic performance decreased in the fourth quarter of 2023. Compared with the previous quarter, there was a marked decline, in particular, in gross fixed capital formation in construction and in machinery and equipment after price, seasonal and calendar adjustment.’
The Euro Area also missed slipping into a recession after growth flatlined in Q4, beating forecasts of -0.1%, after the economy contracted by 0.1% in Q3.
For all market-moving economic data and events, see the real-time DailyFX Economic Calendar
The Euro is currently trying to stabilize around the 1.0825 level after touching a low of 1.0796 on Monday. The single currency has weakened since the end of last year as expectations that the ECB may cut interest rates earlier, and by more than originally expected, weigh on the Euro. According to the latest market forecasts, there is a 75% chance that the ECB will begin its rate-cutting cycle at the April 11th meeting and will force the Deposit Facility rate down to 2.50% by the end of the year from a current level of 4%.
Initial support for EUR/USD is seen at 1.0787 ahead of a cluster of prior lows down to 1.0724. EUR/USD is now below the 200-day simple average and if this remains the case then the above support levels are likely to be tested.
The latest Federal Reserve Monetary Policy decision will be released tomorrow and traders are hoping that Chair Powell will give at least a nod towards when the Fed will start cutting rates. Financial markets are currently pricing a 50/50 chance of a rate cut in March, while the May 1st meeting is now fully priced in.
EUR/USD Daily Chart
Charts Using TradingView
IG retail trader data show 55.69% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.26 to 1.The number of traders net-long is 3.86% higher than yesterday and 16.12% higher than last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.63% higher than yesterday and 16.84% lower than last week.
To See What This Means for EUR/USD, Download the Full Retail Sentiment Report Below
| Change in | Longs | Shorts | OI |
| Daily | -10% | 20% | 2% |
| Weekly | -8% | 7% | -1% |
What is your view on the EURO – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1.
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_a;this.previousScrollRestorationrelinquishControlOfScrollRestoration()this.previousScrollRestoration&&(history.scrollRestoration=this.previousScrollRestoration,delete this.previousScrollRestoration)shouldHandlePopState()return this.pageIsLoaded()pageIsLoaded()class Navigator{constructor(delegate)this.delegate=delegateproposeVisit(location2,options=)this.delegate.allowsVisitingLocationWithAction(location2,options.action)&&(locationIsVisitable(location2,this.view.snapshot.rootLocation)?this.delegate.visitProposedToLocation(location2,options):window.location.href=location2.toString())startVisit(locatable,restorationIdentifier,options=)this.stop(),this.currentVisit=new Visit(this,expandURL(locatable),restorationIdentifier,Object.assign(referrer:this.location,options)),this.currentVisit.start()submitForm(form,submitter)this.stop(),this.formSubmission=new FormSubmission(this,form,submitter,!0),this.formSubmission.start()stop()this.formSubmission&&(this.formSubmission.stop(),delete 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getVisitAction(submitter,formElement)}(prototype=PageStage=PageStage||)[prototype.initial=0]="initial",prototype[prototype.loading=1]="loading",prototype[prototype.interactive=2]="interactive",prototype[prototype.complete=3]="complete";class PageObserverconstructor(delegate)this.stage=PageStage.initial,this.started=!1,this.interpretReadyState=()=>var readyState=this["readyState"];"interactive"==readyState?this.pageIsInteractive():"complete"==readyState&&this.pageIsComplete(),this.pageWillUnload=()=>this.delegate.pageWillUnload(),this.delegate=delegatestart()this.startedstop()this.started&&(document.removeEventListener("readystatechange",this.interpretReadyState,!1),removeEventListener("pagehide",this.pageWillUnload,!1),this.started=!1)pageIsInteractive()this.stage==PageStage.loading&&(this.stage=PageStage.interactive,this.delegate.pageBecameInteractive())pageIsComplete()this.pageIsInteractive(),this.stage==PageStage.interactive&&(this.stage=PageStage.complete,this.delegate.pageLoaded())get readyState()return document.readyStateclass ScrollObserverconstructor(delegate)this.started=!1,this.onScroll=()=>this.updatePosition(x:window.pageXOffset,y:window.pageYOffset),this.delegate=delegatestart()(addEventListener("scroll",this.onScroll,!1),this.onScroll(),this.started=!0)stop()this.started&&(removeEventListener("scroll",this.onScroll,!1),this.started=!1)updatePosition(position)this.delegate.scrollPositionChanged(position)class StreamMessageRenderer{render(fragment)Bardo.preservingPermanentElements(this,function getPermanentElementMapForFragment(fragment)var permanentElementsInDocument=queryPermanentElementsAll(document.documentElement),permanentElementMap=;for(const permanentElementInDocument of permanentElementsInDocument)var id=permanentElementInDocument["id"];for(const streamElement of fragment.querySelectorAll("turbo-stream"))var elementInStream=getPermanentElementById(streamElement.templateElement.content,id);elementInStream&&(permanentElementMap[id]=[permanentElementInDocument,elementInStream])return 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__async$3(this,null,function*()this.replaceHeadAndBody(),this.activateScriptElements())replaceHeadAndBody()vardocumentElement,head=document;documentElement.replaceChild(this.newHead,head),this.renderElement(this.currentElement,this.newElement)activateScriptElements()for(const replaceableElement of this.scriptElements)var element,parentNode=replaceableElement.parentNode;parentNode&&(element=activateScriptElement(replaceableElement),parentNode.replaceChild(element,replaceableElement))get newHead()return this.newSnapshot.headSnapshot.elementget scriptElements()return document.documentElement.querySelectorAll("script")class PageRenderer extends Renderer{static renderElement(currentElement,newElement)document.body&&newElement instanceof HTMLBodyElement?document.body.replaceWith(newElement):document.documentElement.appendChild(newElement)get shouldRender()return this.newSnapshot.isVisitable&&this.trackedElementsAreIdenticalget reloadReason()return this.newSnapshot.isVisitable?this.trackedElementsAreIdentical?void 0:reason:"tracked_element_mismatch":reason:"turbo_visit_control_is_reload"prepareToRender()return __async$3(this,null,function*()yield this.mergeHead())render()return __async$3(this,null,function*()this.willRender&&(yield this.replaceBody()))finishRendering()this.focusFirstAutofocusableElement()get currentHeadSnapshot()return this.currentSnapshot.headSnapshotget newHeadSnapshot()return this.newSnapshot.headSnapshotget newElement()return this.newSnapshot.elementmergeHead()return __async$3(this,null,function*()var mergedHeadElements=this.mergeProvisionalElements(),newStylesheetElements=this.copyNewHeadStylesheetElements();this.copyNewHeadScriptElements(),yield mergedHeadElements,yield newStylesheetElements)replaceBody()return __async$3(this,null,function*()yield this.preservingPermanentElements(()=>__async$3(this,null,function*()this.activateNewBody(),yield this.assignNewBody())))get trackedElementsAreIdentical()return this.currentHeadSnapshot.trackedElementSignature==this.newHeadSnapshot.trackedElementSignaturecopyNewHeadStylesheetElements(){return __async$3(this,null,function*()var loadingElements=[];for(const element of this.newHeadStylesheetElements)loadingElements.push(function waitForLoad(element,timeoutInMilliseconds=2e3)return new Promise(resolve=>const onComplete=()=>element.removeEventListener("error",onComplete),element.removeEventListener("load",onComplete),resolve();element.addEventListener("load",onComplete,once:!0),element.addEventListener("error",onComplete,once:!0),setTimeout(resolve,timeoutInMilliseconds))(element)),document.head.appendChild(element);yield Promise.all(loadingElements))}copyNewHeadScriptElements()for(const element of this.newHeadScriptElements)document.head.appendChild(activateScriptElement(element))mergeProvisionalElements()return __async$3(this,null,function*()document.head.removeChild(element);for(const element of newHeadElements)document.head.appendChild(element))isCurrentElementInElementList(element,elementList)for(var[index,newElement]of elementList.entries())if("TITLE"==element.tagName)if("TITLE"!=newElement.tagName)continue;if(element.innerHTML==newElement.innerHTML)return elementList.splice(index,1),!0if(newElement.isEqualNode(element))return elementList.splice(index,1),!0return!1removeCurrentHeadProvisionalElements()for(const element of this.currentHeadProvisionalElements)document.head.removeChild(element)copyNewHeadProvisionalElements()for(const element of this.newHeadProvisionalElements)document.head.appendChild(element)activateNewBody()document.adoptNode(this.newElement),this.activateNewBodyScriptElements()activateNewBodyScriptElements()for(const inertScriptElement of this.newBodyScriptElements)var activatedScriptElement=activateScriptElement(inertScriptElement);inertScriptElement.replaceWith(activatedScriptElement)assignNewBody()return __async$3(this,null,function*()yield this.renderElement(this.currentElement,this.newElement))get newHeadStylesheetElements()return this.newHeadSnapshot.getStylesheetElementsNotInSnapshot(this.currentHeadSnapshot)get newHeadScriptElements()return this.newHeadSnapshot.getScriptElementsNotInSnapshot(this.currentHeadSnapshot)get currentHeadProvisionalElements()return this.currentHeadSnapshot.provisionalElementsget newHeadProvisionalElements()return this.newHeadSnapshot.provisionalElementsget newBodyScriptElements()return this.newElement.querySelectorAll("script")}class SnapshotCacheconstructor(size)this.keys=[],this.snapshots=,this.size=sizehas(location2)return toCacheKey(location2)in this.snapshotsget(location2)var snapshot;if(this.has(location2))return snapshot=this.read(location2),this.touch(location2),snapshotput(location2,snapshot)return this.write(location2,snapshot),this.touch(location2),snapshotclear()this.snapshots=read(location2)return this.snapshots[toCacheKey(location2)]write(location2,snapshot)this.snapshots[toCacheKey(location2)]=snapshottouch(location2)var location2=toCacheKey(location2),index=this.keys.indexOf(location2);-1setTimeout(()=>resolve(),0))(),snapshot=snapshot.clone(),this.snapshotCache.put(location2,snapshot),snapshot)getCachedSnapshotForLocation(location2)return this.snapshotCache.get(location2)get snapshot()return PageSnapshot.fromElement(this.element)class Preloader{constructor(delegate)this.selector="a[data-turbo-preload]",this.delegate=delegateget snapshotCache()return this.delegate.navigator.view.snapshotCachestart()if("loading"===document.readyState)return document.addEventListener("DOMContentLoaded",()=>this.preloadOnLoadLinksForView(document.body));this.preloadOnLoadLinksForView(document.body)preloadOnLoadLinksForView(element)for(const link of element.querySelectorAll(this.selector))this.preloadURL(link)preloadURL(link){return __async$3(this,null,function*()var location2=new URL(link.href);if(!this.snapshotCache.has(location2))tryvar responseText=yield(yield fetch(location2.toString(),headers:"VND.PREFETCH":"true",Accept:"text/html")).text(),snapshot=PageSnapshot.fromHTMLString(responseText);this.snapshotCache.put(location2,snapshot)catch(_))}}function extendURLWithDeprecatedProperties(url)Object.defineProperties(url,deprecatedLocationPropertyDescriptors)const deprecatedLocationPropertyDescriptors=absoluteURL:get()return this.toString();const StreamActions=after()this.targetElements.forEach(e=>var _a;return null==(_a=e.parentElement)?void 0:_a.insertBefore(this.templateContent,e.nextSibling)),append()this.removeDuplicateTargetChildren(),this.targetElements.forEach(e=>e.append(this.templateContent)),before()this.targetElements.forEach(e=>var _a;return null==(_a=e.parentElement)?void 0:_a.insertBefore(this.templateContent,e)),prepend()this.removeDuplicateTargetChildren(),this.targetElements.forEach(e=>e.prepend(this.templateContent)),remove()this.targetElements.forEach(e=>e.remove()),replace()this.targetElements.forEach(e=>e.replaceWith(this.templateContent)),update()this.targetElements.forEach(targetElement=>targetElement.innerHTML="",targetElement.append(this.templateContent)),session=new class Sessionconstructor()this.navigator=new Navigator(this),this.history=new History(this),this.preloader=new Preloader(this),this.view=new PageView(this,document.documentElement),this.adapter=new BrowserAdapter(this),this.pageObserver=new PageObserver(this),this.cacheObserver=new CacheObserver,this.linkClickObserver=new LinkClickObserver(this,window),this.formSubmitObserver=new FormSubmitObserver(this,document),this.scrollObserver=new ScrollObserver(this),this.streamObserver=new StreamObserver(this),this.formLinkClickObserver=new FormLinkClickObserver(this,document.documentElement),this.frameRedirector=new FrameRedirector(this,document.documentElement),this.streamMessageRenderer=new StreamMessageRenderer,this.drive=!0,this.enabled=!0,this.progressBarDelay=500,this.started=!1,this.formMode="on"start()disable()this.enabled=!1stop()this.started&&(this.pageObserver.stop(),this.cacheObserver.stop(),this.formLinkClickObserver.stop(),this.linkClickObserver.stop(),this.formSubmitObserver.stop(),this.scrollObserver.stop(),this.streamObserver.stop(),this.frameRedirector.stop(),this.history.stop(),this.started=!1)registerAdapter(adapter)this.adapter=adaptervisit(location2,options=)var frameElement=options.frame?document.getElementById(options.frame):null;frameElement instanceof FrameElement?(frameElement.src=location2.toString(),frameElement.loaded):this.navigator.proposeVisit(expandURL(location2),options)connectStreamSource(source)this.streamObserver.connectStreamSource(source)disconnectStreamSource(source)this.streamObserver.disconnectStreamSource(source)renderStreamMessage(message)this.streamMessageRenderer.render(StreamMessage.wrap(message))clearCache()this.view.clearSnapshotCache()setProgressBarDelay(delay)this.progressBarDelay=delaysetFormMode(mode)this.formMode=modeget location()return this.history.locationget restorationIdentifier()return this.history.restorationIdentifierhistoryPoppedToLocationWithRestorationIdentifier(location2,restorationIdentifier)this.enabled?this.navigator.startVisit(location2,restorationIdentifier,action:"restore",historyChanged:!0):this.adapter.pageInvalidated(reason:"turbo_disabled")scrollPositionChanged(position)this.history.updateRestorationData(scrollPosition:position)willSubmitFormLinkToLocation(link,location2)return this.elementIsNavigatable(link)&&locationIsVisitable(location2,this.snapshot.rootLocation)submittedFormLinkToLocation()willFollowLinkToLocation(link,location2,event)return this.elementIsNavigatable(link)&&locationIsVisitable(location2,this.snapshot.rootLocation)&&this.applicationAllowsFollowingLinkToLocation(link,location2,event)followedLinkToLocation(link,location2)var action=this.getActionForLink(link),link=link.hasAttribute("data-turbo-stream");this.visit(location2.href,action:action,acceptsStreamResponse:link)allowsVisitingLocationWithAction(location2,action)visitProposedToLocation(location2,options)extendURLWithDeprecatedProperties(location2),this.adapter.visitProposedToLocation(location2,options)visitStarted(visit2)this.notifyApplicationAfterVisitingLocation(visit2.location,visit2.action)visitCompleted(visit2)clearBusyState(document.documentElement),this.notifyApplicationAfterPageLoad(visit2.getTimingMetrics())locationWithActionIsSamePage(location2,action)return this.navigator.locationWithActionIsSamePage(location2,action)visitScrolledToSamePageLocation(oldURL,newURL)this.notifyApplicationAfterVisitingSamePageLocation(oldURL,newURL)willSubmitForm(form,submitter)var action=getAction(form,submitter);return this.submissionIsNavigatable(form,submitter)&&locationIsVisitable(expandURL(action),this.snapshot.rootLocation)formSubmitted(form,submitter)this.navigator.submitForm(form,submitter)pageBecameInteractive()this.view.lastRenderedLocation=this.location,this.notifyApplicationAfterPageLoad()pageLoaded()this.history.assumeControlOfScrollRestoration()pageWillUnload()this.history.relinquishControlOfScrollRestoration()receivedMessageFromStream(message)this.renderStreamMessage(message)viewWillCacheSnapshot()allowsImmediateRender(element,options)vardefaultPrevented:element,detail:render:options=this.notifyApplicationBeforeRender(element,options);return this.view.renderer&&options&&(this.view.renderer.renderElement=options),!elementviewRenderedSnapshot(_snapshot,_isPreview)this.view.lastRenderedLocation=this.history.location,this.notifyApplicationAfterRender()preloadOnLoadLinksForView(element)this.preloader.preloadOnLoadLinksForView(element)viewInvalidated(reason)this.adapter.pageInvalidated(reason)frameLoaded(frame)this.notifyApplicationAfterFrameLoad(frame)frameRendered(fetchResponse,frame)this.notifyApplicationAfterFrameRender(fetchResponse,frame)applicationAllowsFollowingLinkToLocation(link,location2,ev)return!this.notifyApplicationAfterClickingLinkToLocation(link,location2,ev).defaultPreventedapplicationAllowsVisitingLocation(location2)return!this.notifyApplicationBeforeVisitingLocation(location2).defaultPreventednotifyApplicationAfterClickingLinkToLocation(link,location2,event)return dispatch("turbo:click",target:link,detail:url:location2.href,originalEvent:event,cancelable:!0)notifyApplicationBeforeVisitingLocation(location2)return dispatch("turbo:before-visit",detail:url:location2.href,cancelable:!0)notifyApplicationAfterVisitingLocation(location2,action)return dispatch("turbo:visit",detail:url:location2.href,action:action)notifyApplicationBeforeCachingSnapshot()return dispatch("turbo:before-cache")notifyApplicationBeforeRender(newBody,options)return dispatch("turbo:before-render",detail:Object.assign(newBody:newBody,options),cancelable:!0)notifyApplicationAfterRender()return dispatch("turbo:render")notifyApplicationAfterPageLoad(timing=)return dispatch("turbo:load",detail:url:this.location.href,timing:timing)notifyApplicationAfterVisitingSamePageLocation(oldURL,newURL)dispatchEvent(new HashChangeEvent("hashchange",oldURL:oldURL.toString(),newURL:newURL.toString()))notifyApplicationAfterFrameLoad(frame)return dispatch("turbo:frame-load",target:frame)notifyApplicationAfterFrameRender(fetchResponse,frame)return dispatch("turbo:frame-render",detail:fetchResponse:fetchResponse,target:frame,cancelable:!0)submissionIsNavigatable(form,submitter)elementIsNavigatable(element)getActionForLink(link)return getVisitAction(link)get snapshot()return this.view.snapshot;var prototype=new class Cacheconstructor(session2)this.session=session2clear()this.session.clearCache()resetCacheControl()this.setCacheControl("")exemptPageFromCache()this.setCacheControl("no-cache")exemptPageFromPreview()this.setCacheControl("no-preview")setCacheControl(value)!function setMetaContent(name,content)((element=document.createElement("meta")).setAttribute("name",name),document.head.appendChild(element)),element.setAttribute("content",content),element("turbo-cache-control",value)(session),navigator$1=session["navigator"];function start()session.start()function registerAdapter(adapter)session.registerAdapter(adapter)function visit(location2,options)session.visit(location2,options)function connectStreamSource(source)session.connectStreamSource(source)function disconnectStreamSource(source)session.disconnectStreamSource(source)function renderStreamMessage(message)session.renderStreamMessage(message)function clearCache()console.warn("Please replace `Turbo.clearCache()` with `Turbo.cache.clear()`. The top-level function is deprecated and will be removed in a future version of Turbo.`"),session.clearCache()function setProgressBarDelay(delay)session.setProgressBarDelay(delay)function setConfirmMethod(confirmMethod)FormSubmission.confirmMethod=confirmMethodfunction setFormMode(mode)session.setFormMode(mode)var Turbo=Object.freeze(__proto__:null,navigator:navigator$1,session:session,cache:prototype,PageRenderer:PageRenderer,PageSnapshot:PageSnapshot,FrameRenderer:FrameRenderer,start:start,registerAdapter:registerAdapter,visit:visit,connectStreamSource:connectStreamSource,disconnectStreamSource:disconnectStreamSource,renderStreamMessage:renderStreamMessage,clearCache:clearCache,setProgressBarDelay:setProgressBarDelay,setConfirmMethod:setConfirmMethod,setFormMode:setFormMode,StreamActions:StreamActions);class TurboFrameMissingError extends Errorfunction getFrameElementById(id)if(null!=id)id=document.getElementById(id);if(id instanceof FrameElement)return idfunction activateElement(element,currentURL)if(element)var src=element.getAttribute("src");if(null!=src&&null!=currentURL&&function urlsAreEqual(left,right)return expandURL(left).href==expandURL(right).href(src,currentURL))throw new Error(`Matching element has a source URL which references itself`);if((element=element.ownerDocument!==document?document.importNode(element,!0):element)instanceof FrameElement)return element.connectedCallback(),element.disconnectedCallback(),elementclass StreamElement extends HTMLElementstatic renderElement(newElement)return __async$3(this,null,function*()yield newElement.performAction())connectedCallback()return __async$3(this,null,function*()tryyield this.render()catch(error)console.error(error)finallythis.disconnect())render()return __async$3(this,null,function*()var _a;return null!=(_a=this.renderPromise)?_a:this.renderPromise=__async$3(this,null,function*()var event=this.beforeRenderEvent;this.dispatchEvent(event)&&(yield nextAnimationFrame(),yield event.detail.render(this))))disconnect()trythis.remove()catch(_a)removeDuplicateTargetChildren()this.duplicateChildren.forEach(c=>c.remove())get duplicateChildren()[]].filter(c=>!!c.id).map(c=>c.id);return existingChildren.filter(c=>newChildrenIds.includes(c.id))get performAction()if(this.action)var actionFunction=StreamActions[this.action];if(actionFunction)return actionFunction;this.raise("unknown action")this.raise("action attribute is missing")get targetElements()return this.target?this.targetElementsById:this.targets?this.targetElementsByQuery:void this.raise("target or targets attribute is missing")get templateContent()return this.templateElement.content.cloneNode(!0)get templateElement()var template;return null===this.firstElementChild?(template=this.ownerDocument.createElement("template"),this.appendChild(template),template):this.firstElementChild instanceof HTMLTemplateElement?this.firstElementChild:void this.raise("first child element must be a

