Thursday, May 14


GOLD PRICE, US DOLLAR, STOCKS FORECAST

  • The Fed’s decision on Wednesday could bring increased volatility for gold prices, the U.S. dollar and stocks
  • The Federal Reserve is expected to hold its policy settings unchanged but could embrace a more dovish guidance
  • Two possible FOMC outcomes are discussed in this article

Most Read: Gold Price Forecast – Fed Decision to Guide Trend, Critical Levels For XAU/USD

The Federal Reserve will announce on Wednesday its first monetary policy decision of 2024. This event has the potential to create attractive trading opportunities, but it may also bring heightened volatility and unpredictable price movements, so traders should be prepared to navigate the complex market conditions later this week.

In terms of expectations, the FOMC is seen holding its key benchmark interest rate unchanged in its current range of 5.25% to 5.50%. The central bank may also drop language indicating a likelihood of additional policy firming from the post-meeting statement – a move that would mark a de facto shift toward an easing stance.

While the strong performance of the U.S. economy argues in favor of maintaining a tightening bias for the time being, policymakers may start embracing a more dovish posture for fear that that waiting too long to pivot may cause unnecessary damage to the labor market. In a sense, acting early minimizes the risk of having to implement more extreme accommodative measures later on when hell has already broken loose.

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FOMC MEETING PROBABILITIES

Source: CME Group

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Get Your Free USD Forecast

It’s still unclear whether the Fed will tee up the first-rate cut for the March meeting, but if it subtly greenlights that course of action, we could see a broad-based drop in U.S. Treasury yields, as traders try to front-run the upcoming move. This would be a bullish outcome for the stocks and gold prices, but would exert downward pressure on the U.S. dollar.

In the event of the FOMC leaning on the hawkish side and pushing back against expectations of deep rate cuts for the year and an early start to the easing cycle, nominal yields and the U.S. dollar should rise sharply in tandem. This scenario would create a hostile environment for the equity market as well as precious metals in the near term.

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elements=document.querySelectorAll(this.deprecatedSelector);return elements.length&&console.warn(`The $this.deprecatedSelector selector is deprecated and will be removed in a future version. 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restorationIdentifier=this["restorationIdentifier"],restorationData=this.restorationData[restorationIdentifier];this.restorationData[restorationIdentifier]=Object.assign(Object.assign(,restorationData),additionalData)assumeControlOfScrollRestoration()relinquishControlOfScrollRestoration()this.previousScrollRestoration&&(history.scrollRestoration=this.previousScrollRestoration,delete this.previousScrollRestoration)shouldHandlePopState()return this.pageIsLoaded()pageIsLoaded()class Navigator{constructor(delegate)this.delegate=delegateproposeVisit(location2,options=)this.delegate.allowsVisitingLocationWithAction(location2,options.action)&&(locationIsVisitable(location2,this.view.snapshot.rootLocation)?this.delegate.visitProposedToLocation(location2,options):window.location.href=location2.toString())startVisit(locatable,restorationIdentifier,options=)this.stop(),this.currentVisit=new Visit(this,expandURL(locatable),restorationIdentifier,Object.assign(referrer:this.location,options)),this.currentVisit.start()submitForm(form,submitter)this.stop(),this.formSubmission=new FormSubmission(this,form,submitter,!0),this.formSubmission.start()stop()this.formSubmission&&(this.formSubmission.stop(),delete this.formSubmission),this.currentVisit&&(this.currentVisit.cancel(),delete this.currentVisit)get adapter()return this.delegate.adapterget view()return this.delegate.viewget history()return this.delegate.historyformSubmissionStarted(formSubmission)"function"==typeof this.adapter.formSubmissionStarted&&this.adapter.formSubmissionStarted(formSubmission)formSubmissionSucceededWithResponse(formSubmission,fetchResponse)return __async$3(this,null,function*())formSubmissionFailedWithResponse(formSubmission,fetchResponse)return __async$3(this,null,function*()var responseHTML=yield 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getVisitAction(submitter,formElement)}(prototype=PageStage=PageStage||)[prototype.initial=0]="initial",prototype[prototype.loading=1]="loading",prototype[prototype.interactive=2]="interactive",prototype[prototype.complete=3]="complete";class PageObserverconstructor(delegate)this.stage=PageStage.initial,this.started=!1,this.interpretReadyState=()=>var readyState=this["readyState"];"interactive"==readyState?this.pageIsInteractive():"complete"==readyState&&this.pageIsComplete(),this.pageWillUnload=()=>this.delegate.pageWillUnload(),this.delegate=delegatestart()(this.stage==PageStage.initial&&(this.stage=PageStage.loading),document.addEventListener("readystatechange",this.interpretReadyState,!1),addEventListener("pagehide",this.pageWillUnload,!1),this.started=!0)stop()this.started&&(document.removeEventListener("readystatechange",this.interpretReadyState,!1),removeEventListener("pagehide",this.pageWillUnload,!1),this.started=!1)pageIsInteractive()this.stage==PageStage.loading&&(this.stage=PageStage.interactive,this.delegate.pageBecameInteractive())pageIsComplete()this.pageIsInteractive(),this.stage==PageStage.interactive&&(this.stage=PageStage.complete,this.delegate.pageLoaded())get readyState()return document.readyStateclass ScrollObserverconstructor(delegate)this.started=!1,this.onScroll=()=>this.updatePosition(x:window.pageXOffset,y:window.pageYOffset),this.delegate=delegatestart()this.startedstop()this.started&&(removeEventListener("scroll",this.onScroll,!1),this.started=!1)updatePosition(position)this.delegate.scrollPositionChanged(position)class StreamMessageRenderer{render(fragment)Bardo.preservingPermanentElements(this,function getPermanentElementMapForFragment(fragment)var permanentElementsInDocument=queryPermanentElementsAll(document.documentElement),permanentElementMap=;for(const permanentElementInDocument of permanentElementsInDocument)var id=permanentElementInDocument["id"];for(const streamElement of fragment.querySelectorAll("turbo-stream"))var elementInStream=getPermanentElementById(streamElement.templateElement.content,id);elementInStream&&(permanentElementMap[id]=[permanentElementInDocument,elementInStream])return 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event.data&&this.receiveMessageHTML(event.data),this.delegate=delegatestart()(this.started=!0,addEventListener("turbo:before-fetch-response",this.inspectFetchResponse,!1))stop()this.started&&(this.started=!1,removeEventListener("turbo:before-fetch-response",this.inspectFetchResponse,!1))connectStreamSource(source)disconnectStreamSource(source)this.streamSourceIsConnected(source)&&(this.sources.delete(source),source.removeEventListener("message",this.receiveMessageEvent,!1))streamSourceIsConnected(source)return this.sources.has(source)receiveMessageResponse(response)return __async$3(this,null,function*()var html=yield response.responseHTML;html&&this.receiveMessageHTML(html))receiveMessageHTML(html)this.delegate.receivedMessageFromStream(StreamMessage.wrap(html))class ErrorRenderer extends Rendererstatic renderElement(currentElement,newElement)vardocumentElement,body=document;documentElement.replaceChild(newElement,body)render()return __async$3(this,null,function*()this.replaceHeadAndBody(),this.activateScriptElements())replaceHeadAndBody()vardocumentElement,head=document;documentElement.replaceChild(this.newHead,head),this.renderElement(this.currentElement,this.newElement)activateScriptElements()for(const replaceableElement of this.scriptElements)var element,parentNode=replaceableElement.parentNode;parentNode&&(element=activateScriptElement(replaceableElement),parentNode.replaceChild(element,replaceableElement))get newHead()return this.newSnapshot.headSnapshot.elementget scriptElements()return document.documentElement.querySelectorAll("script")class PageRenderer extends Renderer{static renderElement(currentElement,newElement)document.body&&newElement instanceof HTMLBodyElement?document.body.replaceWith(newElement):document.documentElement.appendChild(newElement)get shouldRender()return this.newSnapshot.isVisitable&&this.trackedElementsAreIdenticalget reloadReason()return this.newSnapshot.isVisitable?this.trackedElementsAreIdentical?void 0:reason:"tracked_element_mismatch":reason:"turbo_visit_control_is_reload"prepareToRender()return __async$3(this,null,function*()yield this.mergeHead())render()return __async$3(this,null,function*()this.willRender&&(yield this.replaceBody()))finishRendering()get currentHeadSnapshot()return this.currentSnapshot.headSnapshotget newHeadSnapshot()return this.newSnapshot.headSnapshotget newElement()return this.newSnapshot.elementmergeHead()return __async$3(this,null,function*()var mergedHeadElements=this.mergeProvisionalElements(),newStylesheetElements=this.copyNewHeadStylesheetElements();this.copyNewHeadScriptElements(),yield mergedHeadElements,yield newStylesheetElements)replaceBody()return __async$3(this,null,function*()yield this.preservingPermanentElements(()=>__async$3(this,null,function*()this.activateNewBody(),yield this.assignNewBody())))get trackedElementsAreIdentical()return this.currentHeadSnapshot.trackedElementSignature==this.newHeadSnapshot.trackedElementSignaturecopyNewHeadStylesheetElements(){return __async$3(this,null,function*()var loadingElements=[];for(const element of this.newHeadStylesheetElements)loadingElements.push(function waitForLoad(element,timeoutInMilliseconds=2e3)return new Promise(resolve=>const onComplete=()=>element.removeEventListener("error",onComplete),element.removeEventListener("load",onComplete),resolve();element.addEventListener("load",onComplete,once:!0),element.addEventListener("error",onComplete,once:!0),setTimeout(resolve,timeoutInMilliseconds))(element)),document.head.appendChild(element);yield Promise.all(loadingElements))}copyNewHeadScriptElements()for(const element of this.newHeadScriptElements)document.head.appendChild(activateScriptElement(element))mergeProvisionalElements()return __async$3(this,null,function*())isCurrentElementInElementList(element,elementList)for(var[index,newElement]of elementList.entries())if("TITLE"==element.tagName)if("TITLE"!=newElement.tagName)continue;if(element.innerHTML==newElement.innerHTML)return elementList.splice(index,1),!0if(newElement.isEqualNode(element))return elementList.splice(index,1),!0return!1removeCurrentHeadProvisionalElements()for(const element of this.currentHeadProvisionalElements)document.head.removeChild(element)copyNewHeadProvisionalElements()for(const element of this.newHeadProvisionalElements)document.head.appendChild(element)activateNewBody()document.adoptNode(this.newElement),this.activateNewBodyScriptElements()activateNewBodyScriptElements()for(const inertScriptElement of this.newBodyScriptElements)var activatedScriptElement=activateScriptElement(inertScriptElement);inertScriptElement.replaceWith(activatedScriptElement)assignNewBody()return __async$3(this,null,function*()yield this.renderElement(this.currentElement,this.newElement))get newHeadStylesheetElements()return this.newHeadSnapshot.getStylesheetElementsNotInSnapshot(this.currentHeadSnapshot)get newHeadScriptElements()return this.newHeadSnapshot.getScriptElementsNotInSnapshot(this.currentHeadSnapshot)get currentHeadProvisionalElements()return this.currentHeadSnapshot.provisionalElementsget newHeadProvisionalElements()return this.newHeadSnapshot.provisionalElementsget newBodyScriptElements()return this.newElement.querySelectorAll("script")}class SnapshotCacheconstructor(size)this.keys=[],this.snapshots=,this.size=sizehas(location2)return toCacheKey(location2)in this.snapshotsget(location2)var snapshot;if(this.has(location2))return snapshot=this.read(location2),this.touch(location2),snapshotput(location2,snapshot)return this.write(location2,snapshot),this.touch(location2),snapshotclear()this.snapshots=read(location2)return this.snapshots[toCacheKey(location2)]write(location2,snapshot)this.snapshots[toCacheKey(location2)]=snapshottouch(location2)var location2=toCacheKey(location2),index=this.keys.indexOf(location2);-1setTimeout(()=>resolve(),0))(),snapshot=snapshot.clone(),this.snapshotCache.put(location2,snapshot),snapshot)getCachedSnapshotForLocation(location2)return this.snapshotCache.get(location2)get snapshot()return PageSnapshot.fromElement(this.element)class Preloader{constructor(delegate)this.selector="a[data-turbo-preload]",this.delegate=delegateget snapshotCache()return this.delegate.navigator.view.snapshotCachestart()if("loading"===document.readyState)return document.addEventListener("DOMContentLoaded",()=>this.preloadOnLoadLinksForView(document.body));this.preloadOnLoadLinksForView(document.body)preloadOnLoadLinksForView(element)for(const link of element.querySelectorAll(this.selector))this.preloadURL(link)preloadURL(link){return __async$3(this,null,function*()var location2=new URL(link.href);if(!this.snapshotCache.has(location2))tryvar responseText=yield(yield fetch(location2.toString(),headers:"VND.PREFETCH":"true",Accept:"text/html")).text(),snapshot=PageSnapshot.fromHTMLString(responseText);this.snapshotCache.put(location2,snapshot)catch(_))}}function extendURLWithDeprecatedProperties(url)Object.defineProperties(url,deprecatedLocationPropertyDescriptors)const deprecatedLocationPropertyDescriptors=absoluteURL:get()return this.toString();const StreamActions=after()this.targetElements.forEach(e=>var _a;return null==(_a=e.parentElement)?void 0:_a.insertBefore(this.templateContent,e.nextSibling)),append()this.removeDuplicateTargetChildren(),this.targetElements.forEach(e=>e.append(this.templateContent)),before()this.targetElements.forEach(e=>var _a;return null==(_a=e.parentElement)?void 0:_a.insertBefore(this.templateContent,e)),prepend()this.removeDuplicateTargetChildren(),this.targetElements.forEach(e=>e.prepend(this.templateContent)),remove()this.targetElements.forEach(e=>e.remove()),replace()this.targetElements.forEach(e=>e.replaceWith(this.templateContent)),update()this.targetElements.forEach(targetElement=>targetElement.innerHTML="",targetElement.append(this.templateContent)),session=new class Sessionconstructor()this.navigator=new Navigator(this),this.history=new History(this),this.preloader=new Preloader(this),this.view=new PageView(this,document.documentElement),this.adapter=new BrowserAdapter(this),this.pageObserver=new PageObserver(this),this.cacheObserver=new CacheObserver,this.linkClickObserver=new LinkClickObserver(this,window),this.formSubmitObserver=new FormSubmitObserver(this,document),this.scrollObserver=new ScrollObserver(this),this.streamObserver=new StreamObserver(this),this.formLinkClickObserver=new FormLinkClickObserver(this,document.documentElement),this.frameRedirector=new FrameRedirector(this,document.documentElement),this.streamMessageRenderer=new StreamMessageRenderer,this.drive=!0,this.enabled=!0,this.progressBarDelay=500,this.started=!1,this.formMode="on"start()this.starteddisable()this.enabled=!1stop()this.started&&(this.pageObserver.stop(),this.cacheObserver.stop(),this.formLinkClickObserver.stop(),this.linkClickObserver.stop(),this.formSubmitObserver.stop(),this.scrollObserver.stop(),this.streamObserver.stop(),this.frameRedirector.stop(),this.history.stop(),this.started=!1)registerAdapter(adapter)this.adapter=adaptervisit(location2,options=)var frameElement=options.frame?document.getElementById(options.frame):null;frameElement instanceof FrameElement?(frameElement.src=location2.toString(),frameElement.loaded):this.navigator.proposeVisit(expandURL(location2),options)connectStreamSource(source)this.streamObserver.connectStreamSource(source)disconnectStreamSource(source)this.streamObserver.disconnectStreamSource(source)renderStreamMessage(message)this.streamMessageRenderer.render(StreamMessage.wrap(message))clearCache()this.view.clearSnapshotCache()setProgressBarDelay(delay)this.progressBarDelay=delaysetFormMode(mode)this.formMode=modeget location()return this.history.locationget restorationIdentifier()return this.history.restorationIdentifierhistoryPoppedToLocationWithRestorationIdentifier(location2,restorationIdentifier)this.enabled?this.navigator.startVisit(location2,restorationIdentifier,action:"restore",historyChanged:!0):this.adapter.pageInvalidated(reason:"turbo_disabled")scrollPositionChanged(position)this.history.updateRestorationData(scrollPosition:position)willSubmitFormLinkToLocation(link,location2)return this.elementIsNavigatable(link)&&locationIsVisitable(location2,this.snapshot.rootLocation)submittedFormLinkToLocation()willFollowLinkToLocation(link,location2,event)return this.elementIsNavigatable(link)&&locationIsVisitable(location2,this.snapshot.rootLocation)&&this.applicationAllowsFollowingLinkToLocation(link,location2,event)followedLinkToLocation(link,location2)var action=this.getActionForLink(link),link=link.hasAttribute("data-turbo-stream");this.visit(location2.href,action:action,acceptsStreamResponse:link)allowsVisitingLocationWithAction(location2,action)visitProposedToLocation(location2,options)extendURLWithDeprecatedProperties(location2),this.adapter.visitProposedToLocation(location2,options)visitStarted(visit2)markAsBusy(document.documentElement),extendURLWithDeprecatedProperties(visit2.location),visit2.silentvisitCompleted(visit2)clearBusyState(document.documentElement),this.notifyApplicationAfterPageLoad(visit2.getTimingMetrics())locationWithActionIsSamePage(location2,action)return this.navigator.locationWithActionIsSamePage(location2,action)visitScrolledToSamePageLocation(oldURL,newURL)this.notifyApplicationAfterVisitingSamePageLocation(oldURL,newURL)willSubmitForm(form,submitter)var action=getAction(form,submitter);return this.submissionIsNavigatable(form,submitter)&&locationIsVisitable(expandURL(action),this.snapshot.rootLocation)formSubmitted(form,submitter)this.navigator.submitForm(form,submitter)pageBecameInteractive()this.view.lastRenderedLocation=this.location,this.notifyApplicationAfterPageLoad()pageLoaded()this.history.assumeControlOfScrollRestoration()pageWillUnload()this.history.relinquishControlOfScrollRestoration()receivedMessageFromStream(message)this.renderStreamMessage(message)viewWillCacheSnapshot()var _a;null!=(_a=this.navigator.currentVisit)&&_a.silentallowsImmediateRender(element,options)vardefaultPrevented:element,detail:render:options=this.notifyApplicationBeforeRender(element,options);return this.view.renderer&&options&&(this.view.renderer.renderElement=options),!elementviewRenderedSnapshot(_snapshot,_isPreview)this.view.lastRenderedLocation=this.history.location,this.notifyApplicationAfterRender()preloadOnLoadLinksForView(element)this.preloader.preloadOnLoadLinksForView(element)viewInvalidated(reason)this.adapter.pageInvalidated(reason)frameLoaded(frame)this.notifyApplicationAfterFrameLoad(frame)frameRendered(fetchResponse,frame)this.notifyApplicationAfterFrameRender(fetchResponse,frame)applicationAllowsFollowingLinkToLocation(link,location2,ev)return!this.notifyApplicationAfterClickingLinkToLocation(link,location2,ev).defaultPreventedapplicationAllowsVisitingLocation(location2)return!this.notifyApplicationBeforeVisitingLocation(location2).defaultPreventednotifyApplicationAfterClickingLinkToLocation(link,location2,event)return dispatch("turbo:click",target:link,detail:url:location2.href,originalEvent:event,cancelable:!0)notifyApplicationBeforeVisitingLocation(location2)return dispatch("turbo:before-visit",detail:url:location2.href,cancelable:!0)notifyApplicationAfterVisitingLocation(location2,action)return dispatch("turbo:visit",detail:url:location2.href,action:action)notifyApplicationBeforeCachingSnapshot()return dispatch("turbo:before-cache")notifyApplicationBeforeRender(newBody,options)return dispatch("turbo:before-render",detail:Object.assign(newBody:newBody,options),cancelable:!0)notifyApplicationAfterRender()return dispatch("turbo:render")notifyApplicationAfterPageLoad(timing=)return dispatch("turbo:load",detail:url:this.location.href,timing:timing)notifyApplicationAfterVisitingSamePageLocation(oldURL,newURL)dispatchEvent(new HashChangeEvent("hashchange",oldURL:oldURL.toString(),newURL:newURL.toString()))notifyApplicationAfterFrameLoad(frame)return dispatch("turbo:frame-load",target:frame)notifyApplicationAfterFrameRender(fetchResponse,frame)return dispatch("turbo:frame-render",detail:fetchResponse:fetchResponse,target:frame,cancelable:!0)submissionIsNavigatable(form,submitter)elementIsNavigatable(element)getActionForLink(link)return getVisitAction(link)get snapshot()return this.view.snapshot;var prototype=new class Cacheconstructor(session2)this.session=session2clear()this.session.clearCache()resetCacheControl()this.setCacheControl("")exemptPageFromCache()this.setCacheControl("no-cache")exemptPageFromPreview()this.setCacheControl("no-preview")setCacheControl(value)!function setMetaContent(name,content)("turbo-cache-control",value)(session),navigator$1=session["navigator"];function start()session.start()function registerAdapter(adapter)session.registerAdapter(adapter)function visit(location2,options)session.visit(location2,options)function connectStreamSource(source)session.connectStreamSource(source)function disconnectStreamSource(source)session.disconnectStreamSource(source)function renderStreamMessage(message)session.renderStreamMessage(message)function clearCache()console.warn("Please replace `Turbo.clearCache()` with `Turbo.cache.clear()`. The top-level function is deprecated and will be removed in a future version of Turbo.`"),session.clearCache()function setProgressBarDelay(delay)session.setProgressBarDelay(delay)function setConfirmMethod(confirmMethod)FormSubmission.confirmMethod=confirmMethodfunction setFormMode(mode)session.setFormMode(mode)var Turbo=Object.freeze(__proto__:null,navigator:navigator$1,session:session,cache:prototype,PageRenderer:PageRenderer,PageSnapshot:PageSnapshot,FrameRenderer:FrameRenderer,start:start,registerAdapter:registerAdapter,visit:visit,connectStreamSource:connectStreamSource,disconnectStreamSource:disconnectStreamSource,renderStreamMessage:renderStreamMessage,clearCache:clearCache,setProgressBarDelay:setProgressBarDelay,setConfirmMethod:setConfirmMethod,setFormMode:setFormMode,StreamActions:StreamActions);class TurboFrameMissingError extends Errorfunction getFrameElementById(id)if(null!=id)id=document.getElementById(id);if(id instanceof FrameElement)return idfunction activateElement(element,currentURL)if(element)var src=element.getAttribute("src");if(null!=src&&null!=currentURL&&function urlsAreEqual(left,right)return expandURL(left).href==expandURL(right).href(src,currentURL))throw new Error(`Matching element has a source URL which references itself`);if((element=element.ownerDocument!==document?document.importNode(element,!0):element)instanceof FrameElement)return element.connectedCallback(),element.disconnectedCallback(),elementclass StreamElement extends HTMLElementstatic renderElement(newElement)return __async$3(this,null,function*()yield newElement.performAction())connectedCallback()return __async$3(this,null,function*()tryyield this.render()catch(error)console.error(error)finallythis.disconnect())render()return __async$3(this,null,function*()var _a;return null!=(_a=this.renderPromise)?_a:this.renderPromise=__async$3(this,null,function*()var event=this.beforeRenderEvent;this.dispatchEvent(event)&&(yield nextAnimationFrame(),yield event.detail.render(this))))disconnect()trythis.remove()catch(_a)removeDuplicateTargetChildren()this.duplicateChildren.forEach(c=>c.remove())get duplicateChildren()[]].filter(c=>!!c.id).map(c=>c.id);return existingChildren.filter(c=>newChildrenIds.includes(c.id))get performAction()if(this.action)var actionFunction=StreamActions[this.action];if(actionFunction)return actionFunction;this.raise("unknown action")this.raise("action attribute is missing")get targetElements()return this.target?this.targetElementsById:this.targets?this.targetElementsByQuery:void this.raise("target or targets attribute is missing")get templateContent()return this.templateElement.content.cloneNode(!0)get templateElement()var template;return null===this.firstElementChild?(template=this.ownerDocument.createElement("template"),this.appendChild(template),template):this.firstElementChild instanceof HTMLTemplateElement?this.firstElementChild:void this.raise("first child element must be a

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