Financial & Forex Market Recap: March 17, 2026

Markets staged an unusual double advance on Tuesday as equities and crude oil climbed in tandem for the first time since the US-Iran conflict began, suggesting traders may be attempting to look past near-term energy disruptions while positioning cautiously ahead of the Federal Reserve’s rate decision on Wednesday.

The dollar extended its retreat for a second consecutive session, Treasury yields fell, and the Australian dollar clawed back to pre-war levels following the Reserve Bank of Australia’s narrow rate hike.

Check out the forex news and economic updates you may have missed in the latest trading session!

Forex News Headlines & Data:

• New Zealand Food Price Index for February 2026: 4.5% (4.8% forecast; 4.6% previous)
• The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.10%, delivering a widely expected hike in a narrow 5-4 vote that signaled growing internal divisions over the pace of further tightening. The RBA cited persistent inflation pressures and rising energy costs linked to the Middle East conflict.
  • Governor Bullock clarified in her press conference that the split reflected a disagreement over timing rather than direction, with all board members agreeing another hike was warranted.
• Swiss Producer & Import Prices for February 2026: -0.3% m/m (-0.1% m/m forecast; -0.2% m/m previous); -2.7% y/y (-2.6% y/y forecast; -2.2% y/y previous)
• Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for March 2026: -0.5 (36.0 forecast; 58.3 previous)
• Euro area ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for March 2026: -8.5 (22.0 forecast; 39.4 previous)
• U.S. ADP Employment Change Weekly for February 28, 2026: 9.0k (15.5k previous)
• NY Fed Services Activity Index for March 2026: -22.6 (-25.7 previous)
• U.S. Pending Home Sales for February 2026: 1.8% m/m (-0.7% m/m forecast; -0.8% m/m previous); -0.8% y/y (-1.8% y/y forecast; -0.4% previous)
• New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index for March 17, 2026: 0.1% (5.7% previous)
• On the geopolitical front, Iran’s new Supreme Leader rejected proposals aimed at de-escalating tensions with the United States and Israel, with a senior official telling Reuters that the Islamic Republic would not seek to reduce tensions until the US and Israel are defeated.
• President Trump separately announced he was abandoning efforts to recruit allied partners for the conflict after most allies declined. He also reportedly asked China to postpone a planned meeting with President Xi by at least a month, citing the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.

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Broad Market Price Action:

Tuesday produced a notable break from the pattern that has dominated markets since the US-Iran conflict began. For the first time since hostilities escalated, WTI crude oil and the S&P 500 advanced simultaneously, with equity markets appearing to attempt a tentative decoupling from the energy price shock narrative.

WTI crude oil was the session’s standout performer, advancing approximately 2.60% to settle near $95.40 per barrel. From the chart, oil opened the overnight session around $93 and climbed steadily through the Asian hours, spiking to intraday highs near $97.57 around the time of the RBA announcement at approximately 2:00 AM ET. The spike was short-lived, with oil pulling back sharply through the London session to lows near $93.17, likely reflecting some relief that the tanker strike near Hormuz caused only minor structural damage with no crew casualties. Oil then recovered through the US afternoon to settle comfortably above $95, with the renewed shipping incident and Iran’s hardened stance toward de-escalation continuing to provide support.

The S&P 500 closed at 6,717.4, up approximately 0.34%. From the chart, the index traded roughly flat through the Asian session before selling off during London hours to session lows near 6,662. A recovery began around the London/US session transition, with the index rallying sharply to intraday highs near 6,754 before paring gains into the afternoon close. Airlines reportedly led the advance as some executives cited strong travel demand, and strategists noted that equity valuations have reached levels historically associated with attractive entry points following the recent war-driven selloff.

Gold edged marginally lower, declining 0.14% to close near $5,006 per ounce. Gold rallied through the Asian session to intraday highs near $5,044 before reversing around the RBA announcement, possibly on safe-haven repositioning. The metal recovered into early London trade before selling off again sharply around the US open, touching lows near $4,973 before stabilizing through the afternoon. The near-flat close despite the equity advance suggested that ongoing geopolitical uncertainty continued to provide an underlying safe-haven bid.

Bitcoin was up on the day to settle near $74,550. The cryptocurrency popped up during the Asian session to highs near $75,500, then declined steadily through the overnight period to lows in the $73,600-73,800 range before recovering through the US afternoon. The net gain represented a modest correlation with the equity advance with no specific crypto catalysts apparent.

The 10-year Treasury yield fell approximately 0.52% to close near 4.20%. From the chart, yields climbed modestly through the Asian and early London sessions to intraday highs near 4.25% before turning sharply lower from the US open onward. The decline ran alongside the equity advance and softer dollar, likely reflecting pre-positioning ahead of the Federal Reserve decision on Wednesday, where officials are widely expected to hold rates steady but may face pointed questions about the inflation implications of elevated energy costs.

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FX Market Behavior: U.S. Dollar vs. Majors

Overlay of USD vs. Majors – Chart Faster With TradingView

The U.S. dollar closed mixed against major currencies on Tuesday, with an arguably net bearish lean on the day, marking the second consecutive session of broad greenback softness as traders continued to reassess the dollar’s safe-haven premium in the context of a geopolitical conflict that is increasingly expected to resolve within weeks.

During the Asian session, the dollar traded mostly sideways but with a net bullish lean against the major currencies. The dominant event of the session was the RBA’s rate decision. AUD/USD initially sold off sharply on the announcement as the narrow 5-4 vote triggered aggressive repricing of May follow-up hike odds. The Australian dollar began recovering approximately 15 minutes after the release and continued clawing back losses through RBA Governor Bullock’s press conference, where she reinforced that the split was about timing rather than direction. Broadly, the dollar held a slight edge against most other majors through the Asian hours, with no other significant regional catalysts to drive directional momentum elsewhere.

After the London session open, the dollar saw early bearish pressure before stabilizing going into the US session. The session’s defining data release was the German ZEW Economic Sentiment collapse from 58.3 to -0.5, with the euro area reading also dramatically missing forecasts. Despite the sharply disappointing European numbers, the dollar failed to capitalize meaningfully on relative European weakness, suggesting a broader greenback softness remained the dominant force. The dollar stabilized in the back half of the London session as traders began positioning for the US open.

After the US session open, the dollar traded net lower against the major currencies. U.S. pending home sales surprised to the upside at +1.8% month-on-month against a -0.7% forecast, providing a constructive data point, though it appeared insufficient to reverse the dollar’s directional bias. The weekly ADP employment change for the period ending February 28 came in at 9.0k versus 15.5k previously, adding to a picture of modestly softening labor market conditions. With the Federal Reserve decision looming on Wednesday and markets watching for Powell’s guidance on how the central bank is weighing energy-driven inflation risks against slowing growth signals, the dollar continued to drift lower through the afternoon.

Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Economic Calendar

• New Zealand Westpac Consumer Confidence for March 31, 2026 at 10:00 pm GMT
• Japan Balance of Trade for February 2026 at 11:50 pm GMT
• Australia Westpac Leading Index for February 2026 at 12:00 am GMT
• Swiss SECO Economic Forecasts at 8:00 am GMT
• Euro area CPI Growth Rate Final for February 2026 at 10:00 am GMT
• U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications & 30-Year Mortgage Rate for March 13, 2026 at 11:00 am GMT
• U.S. PPI for February 2026 at 12:30 pm GMT
• Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision at 1:45 pm GMT
  • BOC Press Conference at 2:30 pm GMT
• U.S. Factory Orders for January 2026 at 2:00 pm GMT
• U.S. EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change for March 13, 2026 at 2:30 pm GMT
• FOMC Monetary Policy Statement at 6:00 pm GMT
  • FOMC Economic Projections at 6:00 pm GMT
  • Fed Press Conference at 6:30 pm GMT

Wednesday’s calendar is dominated by back-to-back central bank decisions from the Bank of Canada and the Federal Reserve. The BoC decision at 1:45 pm GMT arrives in the context of elevated oil prices, which create a complex policy calculus for Canadian policymakers balancing energy-driven inflation upside against broader growth headwinds.

The Federal Reserve decision at 6:00 pm GMT is widely expected to result in a hold, but the FOMC’s updated economic projections and Chair Powell’s press conference at 6:30 pm GMT will be closely scrutinized for any signals about how policymakers are weighing the inflation consequences of elevated oil against softening labor market and services data.

The U.S. PPI release at 12:30 pm GMT could influence pre-Fed positioning, while the EIA crude inventory data at 2:30 pm GMT will provide a further read on supply conditions amid continued Hormuz disruptions. Euro area final CPI for February at 10:00 am GMT rounds out the European morning calendar.

Stay frosty out there, forex friends!

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