Financial & Forex Market Recap: March 24, 2026

Markets spent Tuesday navigating three conflicting narratives around the US-Iran conflict: Trump’s ongoing claims of productive peace negotiations, Iran’s publicly combative online messaging, and fresh US troop deployments to the Middle East that suggested potential escalation. Equities pared a drop that earlier approached 1% as reports surfaced of possible high-level peace talks as soon as Thursday, though Tehran had yet to respond, keeping sentiment fragile and overall tone leaning risk-off. WTI crude surged on persistent Strait of Hormuz supply fears, Treasury yields climbed, and the US dollar emerged as the day’s best-performing major currency.

Check out the forex news and economic updates you may have missed in the latest trading session!

Forex News Headlines & Data:

• Australia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash for March 2026: 50.1 (51.6 forecast; 51.0 previous)
  • Australia S&P Global Services PMI Flash for March 2026: 46.6 (54.7 forecast; 52.8 previous)
• Japan CPI Growth Rate for February 2026: -0.2% m/m (0.2% m/m forecast; -0.1% m/m previous); 1.3% y/y (1.3% y/y forecast; 1.5% y/y previous)
• Japan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash for March 2026: 51.4 (52.3 forecast; 53.0 previous)
  • Japan S&P Global Services PMI Flash for March 2026: 52.8 (51.5 forecast; 53.8 previous)
• Swiss Current Account for December 31, 2025: 7.0B (12.5B forecast; 15.4B previous)
• Euro area S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash for March 2026: 51.4 (49.8 forecast; 50.8 previous)
  • Euro area S&P Global Services PMI Flash for March 2026: 50.1 (50.5 forecast; 51.9 previous)
• U.K. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash for March 2026: 51.4 (51.1 forecast; 51.7 previous)
  • U.K. S&P Global Services PMI Flash for March 2026: 51.2 (52.8 forecast; 53.9 previous)
• Canada CFIB Business Barometer for March 2026: 55.8 (61.1 forecast; 64.8 previous)
• U.K. CBI Distributive Trades for March 2026: -52.0 (-40.0 forecast; -43.0 previous)
• U.S. ADP Employment Change Weekly for March 7, 2026: 10.0k (9.0k previous)
• Canada Manufacturing Sales Prel for February 2026: 3.8% m/m (1.8% m/m forecast; -3.0% m/m previous)
• U.S. Nonfarm Productivity Final for December 31, 2025: 1.8% q/q (2.8% q/q forecast; 4.9% q/q previous)
• U.S. Unit Labor Costs for December 31, 2025: 4.4% (2.8% forecast; -1.9% previous)
• U.S. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash for March 2026: 52.4 (50.2 forecast; 51.6 previous)
  • U.S. S&P Global Services PMI Flash for March 2026: 51.1 (50.4 forecast; 51.7 previous)
• Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for March 2026: 0.0 (-11.0 forecast; -10.0 previous)
• Swiss National Bank Chairman Schlegel said on Tuesday that the SNB is ready to intervene in the currency ​market to dampen appreciation pressure on the franc

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Broad Market Price Action:

Tuesday’s broad market session reflected a tug-of-war between geopolitical risk and cautious optimism, as conflicting messages about US-Iran negotiations kept traders off-balance and most risk assets under pressure.

The S&P 500 closed lower by approximately 0.52% to settle near 6,550, after briefly tagging session lows around 6,522 during the early US session. The index was already under pressure heading into the NY open, with a sharp leg lower coinciding with the release of the US Flash PMI data around 9:45 AM ET. While the PMI prints themselves were mostly constructive, the selling appeared to reflect broader risk-off sentiment tied to the ongoing conflict and mounting concerns in private credit markets, where Apollo Global Management capped investor redemptions. The benchmark later pared losses as reports of possible high-level peace talks as soon as Thursday lifted spirits off the lows.

WTI crude oil was the session’s clear outperformer, gaining approximately 3.2% to close near $91.10 per barrel. Geopolitical risk around the Strait of Hormuz remained highly elevated throughout the session, with reports of Iranian naval mines in the waterway, missile activity toward Kuwait and Israel, strikes on gas facilities in Isfahan, and a large fire at the Valero refinery in Port Arthur, Texas adding to energy market sensitivity. Iran’s indication that non-hostile ships could cross the Strait on its terms did little to ease supply disruption concerns, and WTI climbed steadily through both the London and US sessions.

Gold declined approximately 0.08% to close near $4,402. The precious metal had been trading near $4,440 in the Asian session before selling off sharply around the time of the US Flash PMI release, briefly touching lows near $4,351 before recovering a portion of the move. The decline appeared to reflect a partial unwind of safe-haven positioning amid tentative peace-talk optimism, likely compounded by the stronger US dollar and rising Treasury yields working against gold on the margin.

Bitcoin fell approximately 2.30% to close near $69,270, underperforming across the board. BTC briefly probed $71,400 during the early London session before selling off persistently through US hours, reaching lows near $68,909. There were no direct crypto-specific catalysts to point to, so the decline likely reflected correlation with broader equity weakness and risk-off positioning.

The 10-year US Treasury yield rose approximately 0.97% to close near 4.39%, consistent with the session’s dominant risk-off and inflation-concern backdrop. Yields climbed gradually as the day progressed, with the stronger-than-expected Richmond Fed data and sharply elevated Q4 Unit Labor Costs reinforcing fears about sticky inflation. The move also aligned with commentary from ECB’s Sleijpen, who warned that energy prices could become more entrenched in the economy than in 2022, and from the SNB Chairman, who flagged the possibility of negative rates while noting the hurdle remains high.

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FX Market Behavior: U.S. Dollar vs. Majors

Overlay of USD vs. Majors – Chart Faster With TradingView

The U.S. dollar ended Tuesday as the best-performing major currency on a daily basis, underpinned by safe-haven demand, a broadly risk-off geopolitical backdrop, and a run of stronger-than-expected US economic data releases.

During the Asian session, the dollar traded net higher against the major currencies. The move likely reflected safe-haven demand tied to continued escalation in the Middle East, as reports of Iranian naval mines in the Strait of Hormuz and fresh strikes on energy infrastructure sustained a bid for the greenback. Japan’s February CPI data added to the mix, with headline inflation coming in at 1.3% y/y and core slipping to 1.6% y/y, falling below the Bank of Japan’s 2% target. The softer print arguably reduced near-term pressure on the BoJ to accelerate policy normalization, which may have weighed on the yen. Australia’s Flash Services PMI slumped sharply into contraction territory at 46.6, a significant miss against the 54.7 forecast, likely adding early pressure on the antipodean currencies and supporting relative dollar strength.

After the London open, the dollar dipped against the major currencies but quickly bottomed and rebounded heading into the US session. The London session was headlined by the release of Eurozone and UK Flash PMIs. The results were mixed: manufacturing figures across Germany, the Eurozone, and the UK mostly beat estimates, but services readings generally disappointed and, more importantly, the underlying commentary highlighted a sharp spike in inflation and growth fears tied to the conflict. The UK’s CBI Distributive Trades figure also fell well short of expectations at -52 versus -40 forecast, adding to the broadly cautious European tone. Despite the soft data, the initial dollar dip proved short-lived, with the greenback finding a floor and recovering as market participants appeared to look past Europe’s weakness and refocus on the conflict backdrop and upcoming US releases.

During the US session, the dollar traded choppy and mostly sideways against the major currencies with an arguably net bullish lean. A wave of US data came in broadly stronger than forecast: Manufacturing PMI surged to 52.4 versus 50.2 expected, and the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index jumped to 0 from -10 previously against a -11 forecast, with the Richmond Services Revenues and Shipments indexes also delivering sharp upside surprises. Notably, Q4 Unit Labor Costs came in at 4.4% versus the 2.8% consensus and a prior reading of -1.9%, a significant miss that reinforced concerns about underlying inflation persistence. The combination of stronger activity data and elevated labor cost pressures likely kept the dollar supported on any dips through the afternoon, even as peace-talk headlines provided occasional offsets.

Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Economic Calendar

• U.S. Fed Barr Speech at 10:30 pm GMT
• Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes at 11:50 pm GMT
• Australia Inflation Updates for February 2026 at 12:30 am GMT
• Australia RBA Jones Speech at 2:40 am GMT
• U.K. Inflation Updates for February 2026 at 7:00 am GMT
• ECB President Lagarde Speech at 8:45 am GMT
• Swiss Economic Sentiment Index for March 2026 at 9:00 am GMT
• Germany Ifo Business Climate for March 2026 at 9:00 am GMT
• ECB Lane Speech at 9:15 am GMT
• U.S. MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate for March 20, 2026 at 11:00 am GMT
• U.S. Import & Export Prices for February 2026 at 12:30 pm GMT
• U.S. Current Account for December 2025 at 12:30 pm GMT
• Swiss SNB Quarterly Bulletin at 2:00 pm GMT
• U.S. EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change for March 20, 2026 at 2:30 pm GMT

Wednesday’s most anticipated release is Australia’s February inflation update at 12:30 am GMT, a closely watched print given the RBA’s recent back-to-back rate hike to 4.10% and the energy-driven price pressures flowing from the Middle East conflict. Any upside surprise could revive expectations of further RBA tightening despite the narrow 5-4 vote that rattled markets last week.

UK inflation data at 7:00 am GMT will be similarly significant, with markets watching to see whether conflict-related fuel costs are beginning to filter through to consumer prices and what that might mean for Bank of England rate path expectations.

Germany’s Ifo Business Climate at 9:00 am GMT will offer another read on European business sentiment following Tuesday’s mixed PMIs, while speeches from ECB President Lagarde at 8:45 am GMT and ECB Lane at 9:15 am GMT could offer additional color on how the ECB is weighing inflation risk against growth concerns.

In the US session, import and export prices alongside the current account figure may attract attention for further signs of whether the conflict is feeding into domestic price dynamics, and the EIA crude inventory data at 2:30 pm GMT will be watched closely given oil’s prominent role in the current macro narrative.

Stay frosty out there, forex friends!

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