Risk-off sentiment deepened on Thursday as mounting skepticism over a near-term US-Iran ceasefire drove oil sharply higher while equities, gold, and Bitcoin fell across the board. With Trump’s end-of-week deadline approaching and no meaningful progress from either side, the US dollar finished as the best-performing major currency of the session, supported by safe-haven flows and a steady climb in Treasury yields.
Check out the forex news and economic updates you may have missed in the latest trading session!
Forex News Headlines & Data:
- Germany GfK Consumer Confidence for April 2026: -28.0 (-27.0 forecast; -24.7 previous)
- France Business Confidence for March 2026: 99.0 (98.0 forecast; 102.0 previous)
- France Consumer Confidence for March 2026: 89.0 (87.0 forecast; 91.0 previous)
- Euro area M3 Money Supply for February 2026: 3.0% (3.4% forecast; 3.3% previous)
- Euro area Loans to Companies for February 2026: 2.9% y/y (2.8% y/y forecast; 2.8% y/y previous)
- Euro area Loans to Households for February 2026: 3.0% y/y (3.0% y/y forecast; 3.0% y/y previous)
- Canada Average Weekly Earnings for January 2026: 2.0% y/y (1.6% y/y forecast; 1.9% y/y previous)
- U.S. Initial Jobless Claims for March 21, 2026: 210.0k (209.0k forecast; 205.0k previous)
- U.S. Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index for March 2026: 11.0 (2.0 forecast; 10.0 previous)
- ECB policymaker Nagel: April rate hike is certainly an option but it isn’t the only one
- BoE’s Breeden: Current context different from last energy shock in 2022
Promotion: Use TradeZella’s AI Powered trade journal to deep-dive into your execution and see exactly how you performed during today’s trading session.
Click here to get the TradeZella Edge and use code PIPS20 to save 20% on your first purchase!
Disclosure: We may earn a commission from our partners if you sign up through our links, at no extra cost to you.
Broad Market Price Action:
Dollar Index, Gold, Oil, S&P 500, U.S. 10-yr Yield, Bitcoin Overlay – Chart Faster With TradingView
Thursday’s session delivered a broad risk-off sweep as growing doubts about a US-Iran ceasefire before Trump’s end-of-week deadline drove aggressive selling across equities, precious metals, and cryptocurrencies while oil surged. The conflicting signals from Washington and Tehran — with Trump warning Iran to get serious while Iran maintained no negotiations were taking place — left markets increasingly skeptical that a deal was imminent, and price action reflected that reassessment throughout the day.
WTI crude oil was the clear session standout, as it traded strongly positive for most of the session before a dip ahead of the close. WTI pushed to a session high near $94.18 before a modest late-session fade, with a brief pullback around the US open bringing prices briefly toward $91.40 before buyers re-engaged. The sustained advance likely reflected markets rebuilding a geopolitical risk premium as the prospect of a targeted move on Iranian energy infrastructure or the Strait of Hormuz remained a credible near-term scenario.
The S&P 500 fell approximately 1.50% to close near 6,492, extending the week’s deteriorating risk tone. The index drifted lower through the overnight session, staged a brief bounce at the US open back toward the 6,574 area, but quickly resumed its decline and accelerated lower into the afternoon, touching session lows near 6,476 before settling slightly above that level. The selloff coincided with Trump’s renewed threats of intensified military action and his refusal to commit to a ceasefire, which appeared to dampen any dip-buying appetite that had emerged at the open.
Gold retreated sharply, falling approximately 2.43% to close near $4,397 per ounce, despite the geopolitically charged backdrop that might typically support the metal. Gold began the period near $4,545 in the Asian session and sold off in two distinct legs: the first during Asian hours, pulling prices toward the $4,413 support area, and the second during the US session, pushing gold to session lows near $4,364. The decline appeared to reflect a combination of dollar strength outweighing the safe-haven bid and possible position unwinding after gold’s significant run over the past month. News that Russia’s Putin signed an order limiting gold exports added an unusual fundamental element to the backdrop, though its direct market impact was not immediately discernible from intraday price action.
Bitcoin fell approximately 2.60% to close near $69,143, declining in a relatively steady fashion from the Asian session through the close with no meaningful recovery attempts during the US open period. The magnitude of the decline exceeded that of equities, continuing a pattern seen over recent sessions in which cryptocurrencies have underperformed traditional risk assets during episodes of geopolitical stress.
The 10-year US Treasury yield climbed approximately 1.57% to close near 4.4%, rising steadily throughout all three sessions without significant interruption. The sustained move higher in yields alongside equity weakness and oil strength suggested the bond market was pricing in a mix of persistent inflation risk from elevated energy prices and reduced appetite for duration. Reports of a weak $44 billion note auction during the session likely added incremental upside pressure, with the yield’s move toward its highest level since July underscoring the challenging macro backdrop.
Promoted: Capitalize on News Catalysts Without Risking Your Own Funds.
Today, import prices printed four times above forecast and oil swung $4 in a single session. These are exactly the setups traders dream about — and exactly where personal capital goes to die.
Most proprietary firms pull the plug on your evaluation the moment a major macro release hits the tape. FundedNext lets you trade through all of it. Put Wednesday’s price action to work with up to $200,000 in simulated capital, or try the platform risk-free before you commit.Explore FundedNext and Start Your Free Trial!
Disclosure: We may earn a commission from our partners if you sign up through our links.
FX Market Behavior: U.S. Dollar vs. Majors
Overlay of USD vs. Majors – Chart Faster With TradingView
The US dollar closed as the best-performing major currency on Thursday, posting gains against all majors as safe-haven demand, deteriorating risk appetite, and resilient domestic data reinforced the greenback’s bid throughout the session.
During the Asian session, the dollar traded with low volatility and moved in choppy, largely sideways fashion with an arguably bullish bias. No significant regional catalysts were present beyond the steady geopolitical backdrop, and the dollar’s mild bid likely reflected cautious positioning as markets monitored developments in the US-Iran conflict.
After the London open, the dollar continued trading with a somewhat sideways-to-bullish disposition through the early European hours. As the session progressed toward the US open, the dollar staged a notably strong rally against the major currencies, likely correlating with Trump’s sharpened rhetoric toward Iran and the growing sense that ceasefire talks were going nowhere. The European data releases provided limited support to the dollar’s counterparts: Germany’s GfK consumer confidence for April printed at -28.0, weaker than the -27.0 forecast, and the euro area’s M3 money supply growth came in at 3.0% against a 3.4% consensus, reinforcing the soft European backdrop.
After the US session open, the dollar pulled back briefly but quickly found a floor and resumed its rally, grinding higher for the remainder of the session. The US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending March 21 came in at 210,000, marginally above the 209,000 forecast, with the USD overlay chart above showing a brief dip across pairs after the time of the release before the recovery took hold. The Kansas Fed Manufacturing and Composite indices both beat expectations meaningfully, with the Manufacturing Index printing at 11.0 against a 2.0 forecast, which may have offered additional support to the greenback. Fed Governor Miran’s comments about raising his rate projection due to inflation data further reinforced the view that the Fed’s easing path is unlikely to accelerate in the near term.
Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Economic Calendar
- New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence for March 2026 at 9:00 pm GMT
- U.S. Fed Miran Speech at 10:30 pm GMT
- U.S. Fed Jefferson Speech at 11:00 pm GMT
- U.S. Fed Barr Speech at 11:10 pm GMT
- U.K. Gfk Consumer Confidence for March 2026 at 12:01 am GMT
- U.K. Retail Sales for February 2026 at 7:00 am GMT
- China Current Account Final for December 31, 2025 at 9:00 am GMT
- Euro area ECB Consumer Inflation Expectations for February 2026 at 9:00 am GMT
- Canada Wholesale Sales Prel for February 2026 at 12:30 pm GMT
- U.S. Retail Inventories Ex Autos Adv for February 2026
- U.S. Wholesale Inventories Adv for February 2026
- University of Michigan U.S. Consumer Sentiment Index for March 2026 at 2:00 pm GMT
- Michigan Inflation Expectations Final for March 2026 at 2:00 pm GMT
- Canada Budget Balance for January 2026 at 3:00 pm GMT
- Fed Daly Speech at 3:30 pm GMT
- ECB Schnabel Speech at 4:00 pm GMT
Friday’s calendar features a heavy lineup of Federal Reserve speakers — Cook, Miran, Jefferson, Barr, and Daly — which could generate volatility if any officials offer fresh guidance on the pace of rate adjustments given persistent inflation pressures and the ongoing uncertainty from elevated oil.
UK GfK Consumer Confidence and Retail Sales will be watched for signs of how British consumers are weathering the geopolitical headwinds, while the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations surveys could attract particular attention as a real-time gauge of how US households are reading the economic backdrop with the Iran conflict ongoing.
ECB’s Schnabel speech may draw interest following today’s soft M3 data and the continuing debate around the timing of the next European policy move.
Stay frosty out there, forex friends!
Promotion: Geopolitical Whiplash Is the New Normal. Is Your Psychology Ready?
Wednesday’s session was a masterclass in emotional market traps. Oil swung from $86 to $90 on ceasefire headlines, then reversed. The S&P 500 touched highs near 6,632 before a US open selloff. Gold peaked above $4,600 in Asia and shed over $100 by afternoon. Every swing came with a narrative — and every narrative flipped.
These are exactly the conditions that expose the gap between knowing what to do and actually doing it. When Iran’s preconditions hit the tape and oil reversed, did you freeze? When import prices came in four times above forecast, did you chase?
In Positive Trading Psychology, renowned psychologist Brett Steenbarger argues that surviving sessions like today isn’t about eliminating emotional responses — it’s about channeling your innate character strengths to stay clinical when everyone else is reacting to the next headline. In a market where the war-risk premium can reverse in minutes and Fed speakers move the dollar mid-session, your psychology isn’t a soft edge. It’s your hardest one.
Learn more about “Positive Trading Psychology: Turning personal strengths into trading strengths” on Amazon!
Disclosure: We may earn a commission from our partners if you sign up through our links, at no extra cost to you.
