Sunday, February 15


GBP/USD and EUR/GBP – Prices, Charts, and Analysis

  • ECB and Fed are expected to hike interest rates next week.
  • Little high-impact data in the UK next week will leave Sterling vulnerable.

Recommended by Nick Cawley

Get Your Free GBP Forecast

The British Pound is ending the week on a positive note with cable back above 1.2500 and with EUR/GBP testing support at 0.8800. Both pairs however will come under pressure next week when the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB) announce their latest monetary policy decisions on Wednesday and Thursday respectively. Both are seen lifting interest rates higher but it is the all-important post-release press conferences that will likely drive price action in both the US dollar and the Euro. With little to no data to help steer the British Pound, GBP/USD, and EUR/GBP will be vulnerable to external forces next week.

GBP/USD is pushing higher going into the weekend with the pair printing a fresh two-week high. Resistance at 1:2547 is close and may come under pressure and a break above here would see cable back at levels last seen in June 2022. The technical setup looks positive for a further move higher with GBP/USD supported by the 20-day simple moving average. The Average True Range indicator – the red line at the bottom of the chart – shows the lack of volatility in the pair over the few weeks.

GBP/USD Daily Price Chart – April 28, 2023

Chart via TradingView




of clients are net long.




of clients are net short.

Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily -20% 12% -1%
Weekly -29% 21% -1%

GBP/USD Retail Sentiment is Bullish

Retail trader data show 38.09% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.63 to 1.The number of traders net-long is 4.31% lower than yesterday and 19.38% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.53% higher than yesterday and 7.20% higher from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBP/USD prices may continue to rise. Traders are further net-short than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger GBP/USD-bullish contrarian trading bias.

EUR/GBP is also showing signs of a mildly stronger Sterling with the pair starting to move lower and breaking a series of higher lows and higher highs. Resistance just above 0.8866 continues to hold leaving the pair vulnerable to a move back to prior support at 0.8712.

EUR/GBP Daily Price Chart – April 28, 2023

Chart via TradingView

Retail trader data shows 42.62% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.35 to 1. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current EUR/GBP price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net short.

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What is your view on the GBP/USD and EUR/GBP – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1.

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__async$3(this,null,function*()this.replaceHeadAndBody(),this.activateScriptElements())replaceHeadAndBody()vardocumentElement,head=document;documentElement.replaceChild(this.newHead,head),this.renderElement(this.currentElement,this.newElement)activateScriptElements()for(const replaceableElement of this.scriptElements)var element,parentNode=replaceableElement.parentNode;parentNode&&(element=activateScriptElement(replaceableElement),parentNode.replaceChild(element,replaceableElement))get newHead()return this.newSnapshot.headSnapshot.elementget scriptElements()return document.documentElement.querySelectorAll("script")class PageRenderer extends Renderer{static renderElement(currentElement,newElement)document.body&&newElement instanceof HTMLBodyElement?document.body.replaceWith(newElement):document.documentElement.appendChild(newElement)get shouldRender()return this.newSnapshot.isVisitable&&this.trackedElementsAreIdenticalget reloadReason()return this.newSnapshot.isVisitable?this.trackedElementsAreIdentical?void 0:reason:"tracked_element_mismatch":reason:"turbo_visit_control_is_reload"prepareToRender()return __async$3(this,null,function*()yield this.mergeHead())render()return __async$3(this,null,function*()this.willRender&&(yield this.replaceBody()))finishRendering()this.focusFirstAutofocusableElement()get currentHeadSnapshot()return this.currentSnapshot.headSnapshotget newHeadSnapshot()return this.newSnapshot.headSnapshotget newElement()return this.newSnapshot.elementmergeHead()return __async$3(this,null,function*()var mergedHeadElements=this.mergeProvisionalElements(),newStylesheetElements=this.copyNewHeadStylesheetElements();this.copyNewHeadScriptElements(),yield mergedHeadElements,yield newStylesheetElements)replaceBody()return __async$3(this,null,function*()yield this.preservingPermanentElements(()=>__async$3(this,null,function*()this.activateNewBody(),yield this.assignNewBody())))get trackedElementsAreIdentical()return this.currentHeadSnapshot.trackedElementSignature==this.newHeadSnapshot.trackedElementSignaturecopyNewHeadStylesheetElements(){return __async$3(this,null,function*()var loadingElements=[];for(const element of this.newHeadStylesheetElements)loadingElements.push(function waitForLoad(element,timeoutInMilliseconds=2e3)return new Promise(resolve=>const onComplete=()=>element.removeEventListener("error",onComplete),element.removeEventListener("load",onComplete),resolve();element.addEventListener("load",onComplete,once:!0),element.addEventListener("error",onComplete,once:!0),setTimeout(resolve,timeoutInMilliseconds))(element)),document.head.appendChild(element);yield Promise.all(loadingElements))}copyNewHeadScriptElements()for(const element of this.newHeadScriptElements)document.head.appendChild(activateScriptElement(element))mergeProvisionalElements()return __async$3(this,null,function*())isCurrentElementInElementList(element,elementList)for(var[index,newElement]of elementList.entries())if("TITLE"==element.tagName)if("TITLE"!=newElement.tagName)continue;if(element.innerHTML==newElement.innerHTML)return elementList.splice(index,1),!0if(newElement.isEqualNode(element))return elementList.splice(index,1),!0return!1removeCurrentHeadProvisionalElements()for(const element of this.currentHeadProvisionalElements)document.head.removeChild(element)copyNewHeadProvisionalElements()for(const element of this.newHeadProvisionalElements)document.head.appendChild(element)activateNewBody()document.adoptNode(this.newElement),this.activateNewBodyScriptElements()activateNewBodyScriptElements()for(const inertScriptElement of this.newBodyScriptElements)var activatedScriptElement=activateScriptElement(inertScriptElement);inertScriptElement.replaceWith(activatedScriptElement)assignNewBody()return __async$3(this,null,function*()yield this.renderElement(this.currentElement,this.newElement))get newHeadStylesheetElements()return this.newHeadSnapshot.getStylesheetElementsNotInSnapshot(this.currentHeadSnapshot)get newHeadScriptElements()return this.newHeadSnapshot.getScriptElementsNotInSnapshot(this.currentHeadSnapshot)get currentHeadProvisionalElements()return this.currentHeadSnapshot.provisionalElementsget newHeadProvisionalElements()return this.newHeadSnapshot.provisionalElementsget newBodyScriptElements()return this.newElement.querySelectorAll("script")}class SnapshotCacheconstructor(size)this.keys=[],this.snapshots=,this.size=sizehas(location2)return toCacheKey(location2)in this.snapshotsget(location2)var snapshot;if(this.has(location2))return snapshot=this.read(location2),this.touch(location2),snapshotput(location2,snapshot)return this.write(location2,snapshot),this.touch(location2),snapshotclear()this.snapshots=read(location2)return this.snapshots[toCacheKey(location2)]write(location2,snapshot)this.snapshots[toCacheKey(location2)]=snapshottouch(location2)var location2=toCacheKey(location2),index=this.keys.indexOf(location2);-1setTimeout(()=>resolve(),0))(),snapshot=snapshot.clone(),this.snapshotCache.put(location2,snapshot),snapshot)getCachedSnapshotForLocation(location2)return this.snapshotCache.get(location2)get snapshot()return PageSnapshot.fromElement(this.element)class Preloader{constructor(delegate)this.selector="a[data-turbo-preload]",this.delegate=delegateget snapshotCache()return this.delegate.navigator.view.snapshotCachestart()if("loading"===document.readyState)return document.addEventListener("DOMContentLoaded",()=>this.preloadOnLoadLinksForView(document.body));this.preloadOnLoadLinksForView(document.body)preloadOnLoadLinksForView(element)for(const link of element.querySelectorAll(this.selector))this.preloadURL(link)preloadURL(link){return __async$3(this,null,function*()var location2=new URL(link.href);if(!this.snapshotCache.has(location2))tryvar responseText=yield(yield fetch(location2.toString(),headers:"VND.PREFETCH":"true",Accept:"text/html")).text(),snapshot=PageSnapshot.fromHTMLString(responseText);this.snapshotCache.put(location2,snapshot)catch(_))}}function extendURLWithDeprecatedProperties(url)Object.defineProperties(url,deprecatedLocationPropertyDescriptors)const deprecatedLocationPropertyDescriptors=absoluteURL:get()return this.toString();const StreamActions=after()this.targetElements.forEach(e=>var _a;return null==(_a=e.parentElement)?void 0:_a.insertBefore(this.templateContent,e.nextSibling)),append()this.removeDuplicateTargetChildren(),this.targetElements.forEach(e=>e.append(this.templateContent)),before()this.targetElements.forEach(e=>var _a;return null==(_a=e.parentElement)?void 0:_a.insertBefore(this.templateContent,e)),prepend()this.removeDuplicateTargetChildren(),this.targetElements.forEach(e=>e.prepend(this.templateContent)),remove()this.targetElements.forEach(e=>e.remove()),replace()this.targetElements.forEach(e=>e.replaceWith(this.templateContent)),update()this.targetElements.forEach(targetElement=>targetElement.innerHTML="",targetElement.append(this.templateContent)),session=new class Sessionconstructor()this.navigator=new Navigator(this),this.history=new History(this),this.preloader=new Preloader(this),this.view=new PageView(this,document.documentElement),this.adapter=new BrowserAdapter(this),this.pageObserver=new PageObserver(this),this.cacheObserver=new CacheObserver,this.linkClickObserver=new LinkClickObserver(this,window),this.formSubmitObserver=new FormSubmitObserver(this,document),this.scrollObserver=new ScrollObserver(this),this.streamObserver=new StreamObserver(this),this.formLinkClickObserver=new FormLinkClickObserver(this,document.documentElement),this.frameRedirector=new FrameRedirector(this,document.documentElement),this.streamMessageRenderer=new StreamMessageRenderer,this.drive=!0,this.enabled=!0,this.progressBarDelay=500,this.started=!1,this.formMode="on"start()this.starteddisable()this.enabled=!1stop()this.started&&(this.pageObserver.stop(),this.cacheObserver.stop(),this.formLinkClickObserver.stop(),this.linkClickObserver.stop(),this.formSubmitObserver.stop(),this.scrollObserver.stop(),this.streamObserver.stop(),this.frameRedirector.stop(),this.history.stop(),this.started=!1)registerAdapter(adapter)this.adapter=adaptervisit(location2,options=)var frameElement=options.frame?document.getElementById(options.frame):null;frameElement instanceof FrameElement?(frameElement.src=location2.toString(),frameElement.loaded):this.navigator.proposeVisit(expandURL(location2),options)connectStreamSource(source)this.streamObserver.connectStreamSource(source)disconnectStreamSource(source)this.streamObserver.disconnectStreamSource(source)renderStreamMessage(message)this.streamMessageRenderer.render(StreamMessage.wrap(message))clearCache()this.view.clearSnapshotCache()setProgressBarDelay(delay)this.progressBarDelay=delaysetFormMode(mode)this.formMode=modeget location()return this.history.locationget restorationIdentifier()return this.history.restorationIdentifierhistoryPoppedToLocationWithRestorationIdentifier(location2,restorationIdentifier)this.enabled?this.navigator.startVisit(location2,restorationIdentifier,action:"restore",historyChanged:!0):this.adapter.pageInvalidated(reason:"turbo_disabled")scrollPositionChanged(position)this.history.updateRestorationData(scrollPosition:position)willSubmitFormLinkToLocation(link,location2)return this.elementIsNavigatable(link)&&locationIsVisitable(location2,this.snapshot.rootLocation)submittedFormLinkToLocation()willFollowLinkToLocation(link,location2,event)return this.elementIsNavigatable(link)&&locationIsVisitable(location2,this.snapshot.rootLocation)&&this.applicationAllowsFollowingLinkToLocation(link,location2,event)followedLinkToLocation(link,location2)var action=this.getActionForLink(link),link=link.hasAttribute("data-turbo-stream");this.visit(location2.href,action:action,acceptsStreamResponse:link)allowsVisitingLocationWithAction(location2,action)return this.locationWithActionIsSamePage(location2,action)visitProposedToLocation(location2,options)extendURLWithDeprecatedProperties(location2),this.adapter.visitProposedToLocation(location2,options)visitStarted(visit2)visitCompleted(visit2)clearBusyState(document.documentElement),this.notifyApplicationAfterPageLoad(visit2.getTimingMetrics())locationWithActionIsSamePage(location2,action)return this.navigator.locationWithActionIsSamePage(location2,action)visitScrolledToSamePageLocation(oldURL,newURL)this.notifyApplicationAfterVisitingSamePageLocation(oldURL,newURL)willSubmitForm(form,submitter)var action=getAction(form,submitter);return this.submissionIsNavigatable(form,submitter)&&locationIsVisitable(expandURL(action),this.snapshot.rootLocation)formSubmitted(form,submitter)this.navigator.submitForm(form,submitter)pageBecameInteractive()this.view.lastRenderedLocation=this.location,this.notifyApplicationAfterPageLoad()pageLoaded()this.history.assumeControlOfScrollRestoration()pageWillUnload()this.history.relinquishControlOfScrollRestoration()receivedMessageFromStream(message)this.renderStreamMessage(message)viewWillCacheSnapshot()var _a;null!=(_a=this.navigator.currentVisit)&&_a.silentallowsImmediateRender(element,options)vardefaultPrevented:element,detail:render:options=this.notifyApplicationBeforeRender(element,options);return this.view.renderer&&options&&(this.view.renderer.renderElement=options),!elementviewRenderedSnapshot(_snapshot,_isPreview)this.view.lastRenderedLocation=this.history.location,this.notifyApplicationAfterRender()preloadOnLoadLinksForView(element)this.preloader.preloadOnLoadLinksForView(element)viewInvalidated(reason)this.adapter.pageInvalidated(reason)frameLoaded(frame)this.notifyApplicationAfterFrameLoad(frame)frameRendered(fetchResponse,frame)this.notifyApplicationAfterFrameRender(fetchResponse,frame)applicationAllowsFollowingLinkToLocation(link,location2,ev)return!this.notifyApplicationAfterClickingLinkToLocation(link,location2,ev).defaultPreventedapplicationAllowsVisitingLocation(location2)return!this.notifyApplicationBeforeVisitingLocation(location2).defaultPreventednotifyApplicationAfterClickingLinkToLocation(link,location2,event)return dispatch("turbo:click",target:link,detail:url:location2.href,originalEvent:event,cancelable:!0)notifyApplicationBeforeVisitingLocation(location2)return dispatch("turbo:before-visit",detail:url:location2.href,cancelable:!0)notifyApplicationAfterVisitingLocation(location2,action)return dispatch("turbo:visit",detail:url:location2.href,action:action)notifyApplicationBeforeCachingSnapshot()return dispatch("turbo:before-cache")notifyApplicationBeforeRender(newBody,options)return dispatch("turbo:before-render",detail:Object.assign(newBody:newBody,options),cancelable:!0)notifyApplicationAfterRender()return dispatch("turbo:render")notifyApplicationAfterPageLoad(timing=)return dispatch("turbo:load",detail:url:this.location.href,timing:timing)notifyApplicationAfterVisitingSamePageLocation(oldURL,newURL)dispatchEvent(new HashChangeEvent("hashchange",oldURL:oldURL.toString(),newURL:newURL.toString()))notifyApplicationAfterFrameLoad(frame)return dispatch("turbo:frame-load",target:frame)notifyApplicationAfterFrameRender(fetchResponse,frame)return dispatch("turbo:frame-render",detail:fetchResponse:fetchResponse,target:frame,cancelable:!0)submissionIsNavigatable(form,submitter)elementIsNavigatable(element)element?!containergetActionForLink(link)return getVisitAction(link)get snapshot()return this.view.snapshot;var prototype=new class Cacheconstructor(session2)this.session=session2clear()this.session.clearCache()resetCacheControl()this.setCacheControl("")exemptPageFromCache()this.setCacheControl("no-cache")exemptPageFromPreview()this.setCacheControl("no-preview")setCacheControl(value)!function setMetaContent(name,content)let element=getMetaElement(name);element("turbo-cache-control",value)(session),navigator$1=session["navigator"];function start()session.start()function registerAdapter(adapter)session.registerAdapter(adapter)function visit(location2,options)session.visit(location2,options)function connectStreamSource(source)session.connectStreamSource(source)function disconnectStreamSource(source)session.disconnectStreamSource(source)function renderStreamMessage(message)session.renderStreamMessage(message)function clearCache()console.warn("Please replace `Turbo.clearCache()` with `Turbo.cache.clear()`. The top-level function is deprecated and will be removed in a future version of Turbo.`"),session.clearCache()function setProgressBarDelay(delay)session.setProgressBarDelay(delay)function setConfirmMethod(confirmMethod)FormSubmission.confirmMethod=confirmMethodfunction setFormMode(mode)session.setFormMode(mode)var Turbo=Object.freeze(__proto__:null,navigator:navigator$1,session:session,cache:prototype,PageRenderer:PageRenderer,PageSnapshot:PageSnapshot,FrameRenderer:FrameRenderer,start:start,registerAdapter:registerAdapter,visit:visit,connectStreamSource:connectStreamSource,disconnectStreamSource:disconnectStreamSource,renderStreamMessage:renderStreamMessage,clearCache:clearCache,setProgressBarDelay:setProgressBarDelay,setConfirmMethod:setConfirmMethod,setFormMode:setFormMode,StreamActions:StreamActions);class TurboFrameMissingError extends Errorfunction getFrameElementById(id)if(null!=id)id=document.getElementById(id);if(id instanceof FrameElement)return idfunction activateElement(element,currentURL)if(element)var src=element.getAttribute("src");if(null!=src&&null!=currentURL&&function urlsAreEqual(left,right)return expandURL(left).href==expandURL(right).href(src,currentURL))throw new Error(`Matching element has a source URL which references itself`);if((element=element.ownerDocument!==document?document.importNode(element,!0):element)instanceof FrameElement)return element.connectedCallback(),element.disconnectedCallback(),elementclass StreamElement extends HTMLElementstatic renderElement(newElement)return __async$3(this,null,function*()yield newElement.performAction())connectedCallback()return __async$3(this,null,function*()tryyield this.render()catch(error)console.error(error)finallythis.disconnect())render()return __async$3(this,null,function*()var _a;return null!=(_a=this.renderPromise)?_a:this.renderPromise=__async$3(this,null,function*()var event=this.beforeRenderEvent;this.dispatchEvent(event)&&(yield nextAnimationFrame(),yield event.detail.render(this))))disconnect()trythis.remove()catch(_a)removeDuplicateTargetChildren()this.duplicateChildren.forEach(c=>c.remove())get duplicateChildren()var _a,existingChildren=this.targetElements.flatMap(e=>[...e.children]).filter(c=>!!c.id);const newChildrenIds=[...(null==(_a=this.templateContent)?void 0:_a.children)get performAction()if(this.action)var actionFunction=StreamActions[this.action];if(actionFunction)return actionFunction;this.raise("unknown action")this.raise("action attribute is missing")get targetElements()return this.target?this.targetElementsById:this.targets?this.targetElementsByQuery:void this.raise("target or targets attribute is missing")get templateContent()return this.templateElement.content.cloneNode(!0)get templateElement()var template;return null===this.firstElementChild?(template=this.ownerDocument.createElement("template"),this.appendChild(template),template):this.firstElementChild instanceof HTMLTemplateElement?this.firstElementChild:void this.raise("first child element must be a

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