The GBPUSD has now made two clear downside runs beginning from yesterday’s session high at 1.3661 — and that sequencing matters.
The first leg lower took the pair from 1.3661 down to 1.3550 during the late Asian / early European session. That move had momentum behind it. Sellers were in control, pushing price through intraday support without much hesitation. When the bounce came, it was corrective — not impulsive. The recovery stalled precisely near 1.3606, which marked the 50% retracement of that initial drop. That was your first technical clue that sellers were defending levels.
From there, the second leg unfolded.
Price rotated back down from 1.3606 and extended to a new low at 1.3494. That break took the pair below the prior 1.3550 low and reinforced the idea that rallies were being sold. Two legs lower. Lower highs. Lower lows. That’s the anatomy of short-term control shifting to the downside.
Since printing the 1.3494 low, we have seen a rebound. However, that rebound has only managed to push back toward 1.3550 — the prior low from the first leg down. That level now carries added technical weight:
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It represents former support turned potential resistance.
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It aligns with the 50% retracement of the move down from 1.3606 to 1.3494.
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It sits just above the 61.8% retracement of the broader 2026 trading range, which comes in near 1.3549.
That clustering makes the 1.3549–1.3550 area a key short-term bias-defining zone.
Stay below it, and the sellers maintain the edge. A failure here would keep the “lower highs” structure intact and open the door for another probe toward 1.3494 — and potentially an extension lower if momentum builds.
On the flip side, if buyers can reclaim and hold above 1.3550, it would signal that the immediate downside pressure is easing. In that case, traders would start looking back toward 1.3606 — the prior corrective high — as the next upside hurdle. But until that happens, rallies are suspect.
Right now, the market has defined its battlefield.
Two legs down.
A corrective bounce.
A key retracement ceiling overhead.
And here’s how I see it:
As long as price stays below that 1.3550 area, the sellers deserve the benefit of the doubt. The market already showed you twice where supply stepped in. Until buyers prove otherwise, you trade what you see — not what you hope.
Watch that level. Let the market tip its hand.
