- CPI +2.9% vs +2.9% y/y prelim
- Prior +2.7%
- HICP +2.9% vs +2.9% y/y prelim
- Prior +2.8%
- Core CPI +2.3% y/y
- Prior +2.5%
Headline inflation pressures continue to tick higher in Europe’s largest economy, largely due to a surge in energy prices. That comes as no surprise with it being part of the fallout from the US-Iran conflict. Of note, overall energy product prices in April 2026 were 10.1% higher than in April 2025. And even when compared to the previous month, there were up significantly (+7.2%).
In particular, fuel prices saw a sharp increase within the year (+26.2%) but even household energy price spending also jumped up sharply with light heating oil seeing a surge of +55.1% within the year.
The good news at least is that this is not quite translating to core prices just yet. In fact, core annual inflation ticked lower to 2.3% on the month. But the longer the US-Iran conflict drags on, higher energy prices will become more embedded in other parts of the inflation picture down the road. So, that’s the real risk.
Looking at the breakdown, food price inflation rose by a below average 1.2% estimate (previously 0.9%) while services inflation rose by 2.8% (previously 3.2%). The drops there are what led to core prices nudging a bit lower on the month in April. But as mentioned above, the major risk to the outlook will come from higher energy prices spilling over to other areas in due time.
