KEY POINTS:
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Get Your Free Gold Forecast
MOST READ: USD Breaking News: Consumer Confidence Beats Estimates for December, DXY Edges Lower
Gold (XAU/USD) FUNDAMENTAL BACKDROP
Gold has bounced this morning following yesterday’s decline from one-week highs. The precious metal remains within the wedge pattern formation which served as resistance while the US dollar index continued its decline.
The dollar index has continued its seasonal trend of losses in December as the greenback eyes a recovery in the new year. The greenback has been strong in January recording gains in each of the last 4 years. On Wednesday we saw the index attract some buyers near its weekly low as US CB consumer confidence beat estimates while a decrease in US existing home sales capped further gains. US Treasuries continue to retreat keeping gold prices supported and downside on the precious metal limited as markets digest the BoJ policy shift as well as China’s readiness for more stimulus.
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How to Trade Gold
Gold looks on course to continue its grind higher for the rest of 2022 with the technicals lining up as well. We do have some data releases heading toward the new year with Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Final US GDP data and Core PCE (Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation) due out before the end of the week. Markets could experience a spike in volatility, but I do not believe any of these events will have a material impact on the gold price with bullish momentum continuing to build. My only question is whether gold bulls will be able to facilitate an upside breakout before the New Year? Given the US dollars performance in January (historically) we are likely to see a return of dollar bulls which could see the precious metal begin 2023 on the back foot.
For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the DailyFX Calendar
From a technical perspective, Gold printed a shooting star candle close yesterday off the top of the wedge channel hinting at further downside. Further supporting this narrative is recent price action, which failed to create a new higher high during Tuesday’s rally to the upside. Fundamental factors continue to support an upside break while continued consolidation above the $1800 mark will likely give bulls more confidence as well with the $1850 handle the next significant area of resistance.
Alternatively, a push lower from here will bring support at $1800 into play with a daily candle close below opening up a retest of the ascending trendline as well as the 200-day MA. Key days lie ahead for the gold, and it will no doubt be interesting to see if we will break higher or remain confined to the wedge pattern until the New Year.
Gold (XAU/USD) Daily Chart – December 22, 2022
Source: TradingView
IG CLIENT SENTIMENT DATA: MIXED
IGCS shows retail traders are currently LONG on XAU/USD, with 65% of traders currently holding long positions. At DailyFX we typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment and the fact that traders are LONG suggests that XAU/USD may fall.
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Written by: Zain Vawda, Markets Writer for DailyFX.com
Contact and follow Zain on Twitter: @zvawda
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Navigator{constructor(delegate)this.delegate=delegateproposeVisit(location2,options=)this.delegate.allowsVisitingLocationWithAction(location2,options.action)&&(locationIsVisitable(location2,this.view.snapshot.rootLocation)?this.delegate.visitProposedToLocation(location2,options):window.location.href=location2.toString())startVisit(locatable,restorationIdentifier,options=)this.stop(),this.currentVisit=new Visit(this,expandURL(locatable),restorationIdentifier,Object.assign(referrer:this.location,options)),this.currentVisit.start()submitForm(form,submitter)this.stop(),this.formSubmission=new FormSubmission(this,form,submitter,!0),this.formSubmission.start()stop()this.formSubmission&&(this.formSubmission.stop(),delete this.formSubmission),this.currentVisit&&(this.currentVisit.cancel(),delete this.currentVisit)get adapter()return this.delegate.adapterget view()return this.delegate.viewget history()return this.delegate.historyformSubmissionStarted(formSubmission)"function"==typeof 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readyState=this["readyState"];"interactive"==readyState?this.pageIsInteractive():"complete"==readyState&&this.pageIsComplete(),this.pageWillUnload=()=>this.delegate.pageWillUnload(),this.delegate=delegatestart()(this.stage==PageStage.initial&&(this.stage=PageStage.loading),document.addEventListener("readystatechange",this.interpretReadyState,!1),addEventListener("pagehide",this.pageWillUnload,!1),this.started=!0)stop()this.started&&(document.removeEventListener("readystatechange",this.interpretReadyState,!1),removeEventListener("pagehide",this.pageWillUnload,!1),this.started=!1)pageIsInteractive()this.stage==PageStage.loading&&(this.stage=PageStage.interactive,this.delegate.pageBecameInteractive())pageIsComplete()this.pageIsInteractive(),this.stage==PageStage.interactive&&(this.stage=PageStage.complete,this.delegate.pageLoaded())get readyState()return document.readyStateclass ScrollObserverconstructor(delegate)this.started=!1,this.onScroll=()=>this.updatePosition(x:window.pageXOffset,y:window.pageYOffset),this.delegate=delegatestart()this.startedstop()this.started&&(removeEventListener("scroll",this.onScroll,!1),this.started=!1)updatePosition(position)this.delegate.scrollPositionChanged(position)class StreamObserverconstructor(delegate)this.sources=new Set,this.started=!1,this.inspectFetchResponse=event=>var response=function fetchResponseFromEvent(event)event=null==(event=event.detail)?void 0:event.fetchResponse;if(event instanceof FetchResponse)return event(event);response&&function fetchResponseIsStream(response)response=null!=(response=response.contentType)?response:"";return response.startsWith(StreamMessage.contentType)(response)&&(event.preventDefault(),this.receiveMessageResponse(response)),this.receiveMessageEvent=event=>this.started&&"string"==typeof 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__async$3(this,null,function*()this.replaceHeadAndBody(),this.activateScriptElements())replaceHeadAndBody()vardocumentElement,head,body=document;documentElement.replaceChild(this.newHead,head),documentElement.replaceChild(this.newElement,body)activateScriptElements()for(const replaceableElement of this.scriptElements)var element,parentNode=replaceableElement.parentNode;parentNode&&(element=this.createScriptElement(replaceableElement),parentNode.replaceChild(element,replaceableElement))get newHead()return this.newSnapshot.headSnapshot.elementget scriptElements()return[...document.documentElement.querySelectorAll("script")]class PageRenderer extends Rendererget shouldRender()return this.newSnapshot.isVisitable&&this.trackedElementsAreIdenticalprepareToRender()this.mergeHead()render()return __async$3(this,null,function*()this.willRender&&this.replaceBody())finishRendering()super.finishRendering(),this.isPreviewget currentHeadSnapshot()return this.currentSnapshot.headSnapshotget newHeadSnapshot()return this.newSnapshot.headSnapshotget newElement()return this.newSnapshot.elementmergeHead()this.copyNewHeadStylesheetElements(),this.copyNewHeadScriptElements(),this.removeCurrentHeadProvisionalElements(),this.copyNewHeadProvisionalElements()replaceBody()this.preservingPermanentElements(()=>this.activateNewBody(),this.assignNewBody())get trackedElementsAreIdentical()return this.currentHeadSnapshot.trackedElementSignature==this.newHeadSnapshot.trackedElementSignaturecopyNewHeadStylesheetElements()for(const element of this.newHeadStylesheetElements)document.head.appendChild(element)copyNewHeadScriptElements()for(const element of this.newHeadScriptElements)document.head.appendChild(this.createScriptElement(element))removeCurrentHeadProvisionalElements()for(const element of this.currentHeadProvisionalElements)document.head.removeChild(element)copyNewHeadProvisionalElements()for(const element of this.newHeadProvisionalElements)document.head.appendChild(element)activateNewBody()document.adoptNode(this.newElement),this.activateNewBodyScriptElements()activateNewBodyScriptElements()for(const inertScriptElement of this.newBodyScriptElements)var activatedScriptElement=this.createScriptElement(inertScriptElement);inertScriptElement.replaceWith(activatedScriptElement)assignNewBody()document.body&&this.newElement instanceof HTMLBodyElement?document.body.replaceWith(this.newElement):document.documentElement.appendChild(this.newElement)get newHeadStylesheetElements()return this.newHeadSnapshot.getStylesheetElementsNotInSnapshot(this.currentHeadSnapshot)get newHeadScriptElements()return this.newHeadSnapshot.getScriptElementsNotInSnapshot(this.currentHeadSnapshot)get currentHeadProvisionalElements()return this.currentHeadSnapshot.provisionalElementsget newHeadProvisionalElements()return this.newHeadSnapshot.provisionalElementsget newBodyScriptElements()return this.newElement.querySelectorAll("script")class SnapshotCacheconstructor(size)this.keys=[],this.snapshots=,this.size=sizehas(location2)return toCacheKey(location2)in this.snapshotsget(location2)var snapshot;if(this.has(location2))return snapshot=this.read(location2),this.touch(location2),snapshotput(location2,snapshot)return this.write(location2,snapshot),this.touch(location2),snapshotclear()this.snapshots=read(location2)return this.snapshots[toCacheKey(location2)]write(location2,snapshot)this.snapshots[toCacheKey(location2)]=snapshottouch(location2)var location2=toCacheKey(location2),index=this.keys.indexOf(location2);-1setTimeout(()=>resolve(),0))(),snapshot=snapshot.clone(),this.snapshotCache.put(location2,snapshot),snapshot)getCachedSnapshotForLocation(location2)return this.snapshotCache.get(location2)get snapshot()return PageSnapshot.fromElement(this.element)get shouldCacheSnapshot()return this.snapshot.isCacheablefunction extendURLWithDeprecatedProperties(url)Object.defineProperties(url,deprecatedLocationPropertyDescriptors)const deprecatedLocationPropertyDescriptors=absoluteURL:get()return this.toString(),session=new class Sessionconstructor()this.navigator=new Navigator(this),this.history=new History(this),this.view=new PageView(this,document.documentElement),this.adapter=new BrowserAdapter(this),this.pageObserver=new PageObserver(this),this.cacheObserver=new CacheObserver,this.linkClickObserver=new LinkClickObserver(this),this.formSubmitObserver=new FormSubmitObserver(this),this.scrollObserver=new ScrollObserver(this),this.streamObserver=new StreamObserver(this),this.frameRedirector=new FrameRedirector(document.documentElement),this.drive=!0,this.enabled=!0,this.progressBarDelay=500,this.started=!1start()this.starteddisable()this.enabled=!1stop()this.started&&(this.pageObserver.stop(),this.cacheObserver.stop(),this.linkClickObserver.stop(),this.formSubmitObserver.stop(),this.scrollObserver.stop(),this.streamObserver.stop(),this.frameRedirector.stop(),this.history.stop(),this.started=!1)registerAdapter(adapter)this.adapter=adaptervisit(location2,options=)this.navigator.proposeVisit(expandURL(location2),options)connectStreamSource(source)this.streamObserver.connectStreamSource(source)disconnectStreamSource(source)this.streamObserver.disconnectStreamSource(source)renderStreamMessage(message)document.documentElement.appendChild(StreamMessage.wrap(message).fragment)clearCache()this.view.clearSnapshotCache()setProgressBarDelay(delay)this.progressBarDelay=delayget location()return this.history.locationget restorationIdentifier()return this.history.restorationIdentifierhistoryPoppedToLocationWithRestorationIdentifier(location2,restorationIdentifier)this.enabled?this.navigator.startVisit(location2,restorationIdentifier,action:"restore",historyChanged:!0):this.adapter.pageInvalidated()scrollPositionChanged(position)this.history.updateRestorationData(scrollPosition:position)willFollowLinkToLocation(link,location2)return this.elementDriveEnabled(link)&&locationIsVisitable(location2,this.snapshot.rootLocation)&&this.applicationAllowsFollowingLinkToLocation(link,location2)followedLinkToLocation(link,location2)var action=this.getActionForLink(link);this.convertLinkWithMethodClickToFormSubmission(link)convertLinkWithMethodClickToFormSubmission(link)var linkMethod=link.getAttribute("data-turbo-method");if(linkMethod)"undefined",form.hidden=!0,link.hasAttribute("data-turbo-confirm")&&form.setAttribute("data-turbo-confirm",link.getAttribute("data-turbo-confirm"));linkMethod=this.getTargetFrameForLink(link);return linkMethod?(form.setAttribute("data-turbo-frame",linkMethod),form.addEventListener("turbo:submit-start",()=>form.remove())):form.addEventListener("submit",()=>form.remove()),document.body.appendChild(form),dispatch("submit",cancelable:!0,target:form)return!1allowsVisitingLocationWithAction(location2,action)this.applicationAllowsVisitingLocation(location2)visitProposedToLocation(location2,options)extendURLWithDeprecatedProperties(location2),this.adapter.visitProposedToLocation(location2,options)visitStarted(visit2)this.notifyApplicationAfterVisitingLocation(visit2.location,visit2.action)visitCompleted(visit2)this.notifyApplicationAfterPageLoad(visit2.getTimingMetrics())locationWithActionIsSamePage(location2,action)return this.navigator.locationWithActionIsSamePage(location2,action)visitScrolledToSamePageLocation(oldURL,newURL)this.notifyApplicationAfterVisitingSamePageLocation(oldURL,newURL)willSubmitForm(form,submitter)var action=getAction(form,submitter);return this.elementDriveEnabled(form)&&(!submitterformSubmitted(form,submitter)this.navigator.submitForm(form,submitter)pageBecameInteractive()this.view.lastRenderedLocation=this.location,this.notifyApplicationAfterPageLoad()pageLoaded()this.history.assumeControlOfScrollRestoration()pageWillUnload()this.history.relinquishControlOfScrollRestoration()receivedMessageFromStream(message)this.renderStreamMessage(message)viewWillCacheSnapshot()allowsImmediateRender(element,resume)return!this.notifyApplicationBeforeRender(element,resume).defaultPreventedviewRenderedSnapshot(snapshot,isPreview)this.view.lastRenderedLocation=this.history.location,this.notifyApplicationAfterRender()viewInvalidated()this.adapter.pageInvalidated()frameLoaded(frame)this.notifyApplicationAfterFrameLoad(frame)frameRendered(fetchResponse,frame)this.notifyApplicationAfterFrameRender(fetchResponse,frame)applicationAllowsFollowingLinkToLocation(link,location2)return!this.notifyApplicationAfterClickingLinkToLocation(link,location2).defaultPreventedapplicationAllowsVisitingLocation(location2)return!this.notifyApplicationBeforeVisitingLocation(location2).defaultPreventednotifyApplicationAfterClickingLinkToLocation(link,location2)return dispatch("turbo:click",target:link,detail:url:location2.href,cancelable:!0)notifyApplicationBeforeVisitingLocation(location2)return dispatch("turbo:before-visit",detail:url:location2.href,cancelable:!0)notifyApplicationAfterVisitingLocation(location2,action)return markAsBusy(document.documentElement),dispatch("turbo:visit",detail:url:location2.href,action:action)notifyApplicationBeforeCachingSnapshot()return dispatch("turbo:before-cache")notifyApplicationBeforeRender(newBody,resume)return dispatch("turbo:before-render",detail:newBody:newBody,resume:resume,cancelable:!0)notifyApplicationAfterRender()return dispatch("turbo:render")notifyApplicationAfterPageLoad(timing=)return clearBusyState(document.documentElement),dispatch("turbo:load",detail:url:this.location.href,timing:timing)notifyApplicationAfterVisitingSamePageLocation(oldURL,newURL)dispatchEvent(new HashChangeEvent("hashchange",oldURL:oldURL.toString(),newURL:newURL.toString()))notifyApplicationAfterFrameLoad(frame)return dispatch("turbo:frame-load",target:frame)notifyApplicationAfterFrameRender(fetchResponse,frame)return dispatch("turbo:frame-render",detail:fetchResponse:fetchResponse,target:frame,cancelable:!0)elementDriveEnabled(element)getActionForLink(link)link=link.getAttribute("data-turbo-action");return isAction(link)?link:"advance"getTargetFrameForLink(link)var frame=link.getAttribute("data-turbo-frame");return frameget snapshot()return this.view.snapshot;var prototype=session["navigator"];function start()session.start()function registerAdapter(adapter)session.registerAdapter(adapter)function visit(location2,options)session.visit(location2,options)function connectStreamSource(source)session.connectStreamSource(source)function disconnectStreamSource(source)session.disconnectStreamSource(source)function renderStreamMessage(message)session.renderStreamMessage(message)function clearCache()session.clearCache()function setProgressBarDelay(delay)session.setProgressBarDelay(delay)function setConfirmMethod(confirmMethod)FormSubmission.confirmMethod=confirmMethodvar Turbo=Object.freeze(__proto__:null,navigator:prototype,session:session,PageRenderer:PageRenderer,PageSnapshot:PageSnapshot,start:start,registerAdapter:registerAdapter,visit:visit,connectStreamSource:connectStreamSource,disconnectStreamSource:disconnectStreamSource,renderStreamMessage:renderStreamMessage,clearCache:clearCache,setProgressBarDelay:setProgressBarDelay,setConfirmMethod:setConfirmMethod);class SnapshotSubstitutionconstructor(element)this.visitCachedSnapshot=(element:element2)=>varid,clone=this;null!=(element2=element2.querySelector("#"+id))&&element2.replaceWith(clone),this.clone=element.cloneNode(!0),this.id=element.idfunction getFrameElementById(id)if(null!=id)id=document.getElementById(id);if(id instanceof FrameElement)return idfunction activateElement(element,currentURL)if(element)var src=element.getAttribute("src");if(null!=src&&null!=currentURL&&function urlsAreEqual(left,right)return expandURL(left).href==expandURL(right).href(src,currentURL))throw new Error(`Matching element has a source URL which references itself`);if((element=element.ownerDocument!==document?document.importNode(element,!0):element)instanceof FrameElement)return element.connectedCallback(),element.disconnectedCallback(),elementconst StreamActions=after()this.targetElements.forEach(e=>var _a;return null==(_a=e.parentElement)?void 0:_a.insertBefore(this.templateContent,e.nextSibling)),append()this.removeDuplicateTargetChildren(),this.targetElements.forEach(e=>e.append(this.templateContent)),before()this.targetElements.forEach(e=>var _a;return null==(_a=e.parentElement)?void 0:_a.insertBefore(this.templateContent,e)),prepend()this.removeDuplicateTargetChildren(),this.targetElements.forEach(e=>e.prepend(this.templateContent)),remove()this.targetElements.forEach(e=>e.remove()),replace()this.targetElements.forEach(e=>e.replaceWith(this.templateContent)),update()this.targetElements.forEach(e=>e.innerHTML="",e.append(this.templateContent));class StreamElement extends HTMLElementconnectedCallback()return __async$3(this,null,function*()tryyield this.render()catch(error)console.error(error)finallythis.disconnect())render()return __async$3(this,null,function*()var _a;return null!=(_a=this.renderPromise)?_a:this.renderPromise=__async$3(this,null,function*()this.dispatchEvent(this.beforeRenderEvent)&&(yield nextAnimationFrame(),this.performAction())))disconnect()trythis.remove()catch(_a)removeDuplicateTargetChildren()this.duplicateChildren.forEach(c=>c.remove())get duplicateChildren()var _a,existingChildren=this.targetElements.flatMap(e=>[...e.children]).filter(c=>!!c.id);const newChildrenIds=[...null==(_a=this.templateContent)?void 0:_a.children].filter(c=>!!c.id).map(c=>c.id);return existingChildren.filter(c=>newChildrenIds.includes(c.id))get performAction()if(this.action)var actionFunction=StreamActions[this.action];if(actionFunction)return actionFunction;this.raise("unknown action")this.raise("action attribute is missing")get targetElements()return this.target?this.targetElementsById:this.targets?this.targetElementsByQuery:void this.raise("target or targets attribute is missing")get templateContent()return this.templateElement.content.cloneNode(!0)get templateElement()if(this.firstElementChild instanceof HTMLTemplateElement)return this.firstElementChild;this.raise("first child element must be a
