Indian Rupee flattens against US Dollar ahead of US market opening

The Indian Rupee (INR) opens flat near Monday’s low at around 90.80 against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday. The USD/INR pair trades broadly stable as strong dollar demand by Indian importers continues to support the downside, while the upside remains capped amid fears of the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) intervention.

The outlook of the Indian Rupee remains grim as the Indian stock market struggles to attract foreign investment despite the confirmation of a trade deal between the United States (US) and India.

So far in February, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) have remained net sellers, and have pared their stake worth Rs. 2,345.69 crore. On Monday, FIIs sold shares worth Rs. 972.13 crore.

Globally, investors await the second round of talks between the US and Iran in Geneva during the day. Investors will closely track the US-Iran meeting to assess the outlook of the Oil price, with the assumption that an absence of a deal between both nations could prompt energy prices. This scenario will be unfavorable for the Indian Rupee, given that the economy relies heavily on imported oil to fulfill its energy needs.

Meanwhile, the sideways performance by the US Dollar ahead of the opening of US markets after an extended weekend is also keeping the USD/INR pair confined. During the press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades flat near 97.15.

Going forward, the major trigger for the US Dollar will be market expectations for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook. According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders are confident that the Fed will not cut interest rates in the March and April monetary policy meetings.

Dovish Fed prospects have remained confined even as the US inflation has cooled in January. The data showed on Friday that the headline and core inflation dropped to 2.4% and 2.5%, on an annualized basis, respectively.

This week, major triggers for the US Dollar will be Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes of the January meeting and preliminary Q4 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data. In the January policy meeting, the Fed held interest rates steady in the range of 3.50%-3.75%, and indicated that the bar for another interest rate cut is very high.

Technical Analysis: USD/INR wobbles near 20-day EMA

USD/INR trades flat at around 90.9035 in the opening session. Price sits marginally above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 90.8822. The 20-day EMA has flattened after easing in recent sessions, pointing to consolidation.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 51.19 is neutral, reflecting balanced momentum with a mild recovery from prior weakness.

As long as the price stays below the 20-day EMA, the door for further downside towards the psychological level of 90.00 remains open. On the upside, the price could rise to the February 2 low of 91.25 once it breaks decisively above the average.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

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