Chonlatee Sangsawang
2024 is being called the biggest election year in history, with half of the world participating in regional, legislative and presidential elections. Geopolitical tensions were already some of the biggest investing risks going into the new year and many of the coming results will determine how those pressures will be exacerbated or resolved. Complicating the situation is growing mistrust in the integrity of elections themselves, as well as the potential for online misinformation and algorithm manipulation during the campaign trail. In some countries, there is also a widespread risk of doctored results or mass protests in response to them.
Asia: The first big presidential election will take place in Taiwan on Jan. 13. U.S. policymakers will be closely watching the results for the tone on relations with China, which just pledged “reunification” with the self-governing island during Xi Jinping’s year-end address. Elsewhere in Asia, Indians will go to the polls in April and May to decide whether Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party will secure a third term. The country is rapidly becoming a global manufacturing powerhouse, helping investors turn bullish on the world’s most populous nation.
Europe: European Russia is the most populated part of Russia, which has been in direct conflict with Ukraine over the last two years. Everything from energy to commodities has been impacted by the war with its neighbor, but neither side has shown any signs of achieving victory or motivation to compromise. No surprises are in store, but Russians will go to the polls on March 17, while Ukraine’s planned presidential vote on March 31 is likely to be postponed with the nation currently under martial law. Establishment parties are also bracing for some disruption during the European Parliament election slated for June, while the U.K. economy will be on watch with Rishi Sunak promising to call a general election at some point in 2024.
Americas: The presidential election cycle in the U.S. begins in earnest this month with the first caucuses in Iowa and primaries in New Hampshire. The campaign season will get lots of airtime, with debates and soundbites covering the economy, immigration, infrastructure and foreign policy. The vote on Nov. 5. will not only decide the next president of the United States, but also features Senate and House races, as well as gubernatorial elections. South of the border, Mexico will hold a presidential vote in June that could impact cooperation on trade and border security with its northern neighbor, while Venezuela heads to the polls in December for a predictable election outcome as the country gears up for battle with energy-rich Guyana.
