Traders/markets are bracing for Nvidia (NVDA) Q3 earnings after the close, and the stakes couldn’t be higher. With the stock heavily weighted in major indices, this report will likely dictate the short-term direction of the entire tech sector (and arguably the market).
THE NUMBERS TO BEAT (Consensus Estimates):
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Revenue: $54.9 Billion (Implies +56% YoY growth. $35.08B in Q3 2024)
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EPS: $1.25 – $1.26 (Implies +54% YoY growth). $0.81 in Q3 2024
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Data Center Revenue: Watching for $48B+ (The core AI driver)
ANALYST CHATTER & EXPECTATIONS:
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Priced for Perfection: Analysts warn that a simple “beat” isn’t enough. NVDA needs to “crush and raise.” The “whisper number” on the Street is likely higher than the official consensus, with some buy-side expectations pushing toward $56B in revenue.
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The “Blackwell” Factor: All eyes are on CEO Jensen Huang’s commentary regarding the Blackwell GB200 chip. Supply constraints have been the bottleneck; investors need confirmation that production yields are improving and that demand remains “insatiable” through 2026.
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The Guidance Game: Q3 numbers are history. The stock moves on Q4 guidance. Wall Street wants to see a forecast of $60B – $61.5B for the current quarter. CNBC has been talking about $64B..
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Big Tech Spending: With Microsoft, Meta, and Alphabet signaling massive capex spend last month, the read-through is positive for Nvidia. The question is: How much of that cash landed in Nvidia’s accounts this quarter?
Options markets are pricing in a massive swing. Traders are expecting a move of +/- 7-8% by Friday. That’s roughly a $300 Billion swing in market cap—equivalent to the entire value of Netflix or Coca-Cola—hinging on a single PDF release.
BOTTOM LINE:
The AI trade faces its stress test tonight. If Nvidia signals that the “AI Supercycle” has legs for another 18 months, the rally continues. If they hint at slowing growth or margin compression, brace for volatility.
The price of Nvidia is down -12.11% from the high. It was down aa much at -15.68% on November 7th.
TECHNICALLY SPEAKING:
Technically, the price is below the three major hourly MAs with the:
- 50 hour MA at $18.55
- 200 hour MA at $190.13
- 100 hour MA at $193.25
If the technicals are to shift higher, getting and staying above those levels is needed. BTW a move above the 100 hour MA impies a gain of 3.41% from current levels.
Absent moves above those levels, the sellers in the short term are more in control.
Targets on the downside come in at $176.76. That would be a decline of -5.43%.
Move below that and the next major target is the 38.2% of the 2025 trading range at $164.22. A move to the 38.2% would imply a decline of -12.24 from current levels. That would be imply more of a disaster.
