The week in one sentence: Speculative positioning turned more constructive in the week to August 18. WTI recorded the largest increase, followed by a sharp narrowing in CAD net shorts. VIX and JPY positioning moved the other way, while Gold remained the clearest crowded long despite a softer spot price.
WTI: Positioning rebounds with prices
Speculative net longs in the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) increased by nearly 23K contracts to around 122.1K contracts, marking the strongest weekly rise since late July. WTI traded with decent gains over the reporting week, confirming the more constructive flow, although net positioning remains near the 13th percentile of its 5-year range.
CAD: Short covering accelerates
Canadian Dollar (CAD) net shorts narrowed by almost 15.2K contracts to around 158.2K contracts, the strongest weekly improvement since early May. In the meantime, USD/CAD declined modestly, meaning CAD strengthened as positioning improved. Additionally, net positioning remains depressed near the 9th percentile.
JPY and AUD diverge
The Japanese Yen’s positioning deteriorated by around 10.8K contracts as longs fell and shorts increased. In the meantime, USD/JPY navigated with humble gains, confirming Yen weakness. Australian Dollar (AUD) net shorts widened by nearly 5K contracts despite a decent advance in AUD/USD, creating a price-positioning divergence. The British Pound (GBP) and the Euro (EUR) positioning improved modestly by around 1.6K contracts and just over 900 contracts, respectively.
VIX: Bearish pressure deepens
VIX positioning deteriorated by around 14.5K contracts, the most since June 2. Gross longs rose by around 5.4K contracts, but a nearly 20K-contract increase in gross shorts more than offset this move. The VIX clinched a strong pullback, so
price and positioning moved together. Furthermore, net shorts reached almost 89.5K contracts, leaving the net position near the 8th percentile.
Coffee: Price and positioning confirm
Coffee (KC1!) net length increased by roughly 3.2K contracts, reaching over 30.3K contracts. The improvement came through a nearly 3.9K-contract reduction in gross shorts, more than offsetting a 662-contract decline in gross longs. Meanwhile, Coffee prices rose markedly over the reporting week, providing the strongest price confirmation outside WTI and lifting net positioning towards the 29th percentile.
Gold and the positioning extremes
Non-commercial net longs in Gold increased by more than 4.2K contracts to nearly 222.2K contracts, but prices fell slightly, creating a modest divergence. Exposure remains near the 96th percentile, the clearest crowded long in the report. At the other end, EUR net positioning is near the 4th percentile, VIX near the 8th, CAD near the 9th and WTI around the 13th.
