Crude oil prices have pushed back above the $72.50 level, with WTI now trading roughly 7.8% higher on the day, as geopolitical risk continues to dominate price action. The latest advance follows a corrective pullback earlier in the North American session that saw prices dip toward the $70 area before buyers stepped back in and drove the market higher once again.
Earlier in the day, crude extended to a session high of $75.33, reflecting an aggressive risk premium being priced into the market as a result of the start of the Iranian war. More recently, there has been a reports that Iran’s Revolutionary Guard indicated that the Strait of Hormuz had been effectively closed, accompanied by warnings that vessels attempting to transit the waterway could be targeted and set on fire. Given that roughly one-fifth of global oil and gas shipments pass through the Strait, even the threat of disruption has been enough to trigger sharp price volatility.
Adding to supply concerns, separate reports suggest that more than 1,100 oil tankers and commercial vessels operating within or near the Strait are experiencing significant navigation disruptions, including GPS interference, leaving ships unable to safely maneuver. These developments have heightened fears of near-term logistical bottlenecks and potential physical supply constraints, reinforcing the upside momentum in crude prices.
From a technical perspective, the rebound carries important implications. The renewed move higher has pushed prices back above the previously broken 38.2% retracement of the strong trend move that began at Thursday’s low of $63.60 and extended to today’s high at $75.33. That retracement level comes in at $70.85.
During the North American session, the low price reached $70.08, placing it squarely within what can be defined as a key correction zone — the area between the 38.2% and 50% retracement levels, spanning $69.47 to $70.85. The market’s ability to hold within and ultimately rebound from this zone is technically constructive and signals that buyers continue to defend pullbacks.
As long as prices remain above the $69.47 support level, the broader short-term bias stays tilted to the upside, with buyers maintaining control. Holding this zone keeps the recent rally structure intact and suggests that geopolitical headlines, combined with supportive technical positioning, remain capable of driving further upside volatility in the near term.
In the video above I talk about the technicals that are driving the price of crude oil and what would hurt the bullish bias at least in the short term.
