FUNDAMENTAL
OVERVIEW
Silver prices jumped yesterday
after the announcement of a two-week ceasefire as easing financial conditions
supported a broader risk-on sentiment. However, those gains were later wiped
out when Israel launched an attack on Lebanon, triggering backlash, with Iran
insisting that Lebanon was included in the ceasefire agreement.
For now, the ceasefire is
still holding, at least until tomorrow, when the US-Iran negotiations are set
to take place in Islamabad. The talks could also be extended if both sides
agree.
There’s still a risk that
the conflict could restart at any moment, since the US and Iran have not officially
ended the hostilities. Nonetheless, the short-term bias has turned more bullish
for silver, as traders reprice the hawkish expectations. If the negotiations were
to fail and the war were to resume, we can expect silver to drop back towards
the monthly lows.
SILVER TECHNICAL
ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAME
Silver – daily
On the daily chart, we can
see that silver bounced on the major trendline and pulled back into the swing
low around the 78.00 level. That’s where the sellers stepped in with a defined
risk above the level to position for a drop into the next major trendline around
the 53.00 handle. The buyers will want to see the price breaking higher to increase
the bullish bets into the 96.35 level next.
SILVER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4
HOUR TIMEFRAME
Silver – 4 hour
On the 4 hour chart, we have
an upward trendline defining the bullish momentum. If the pullback extends
further, we can expect the buyers to lean on the trendline with a defined risk
below it to keep pushing into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will
look for a break to increase the bearish bets into the monthly lows.
SILVER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAME
Silver – 1 hour
On the 1 hour chart, we
have a minor support zone around the 73.00 handle. The buyers are stepping in
around these levels with a defined risk below the support to keep targeting new
highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break to increase the
bearish bets into the trendline. The red lines define the average daily range for today.
UPCOMING CATALYSTS
Today we get the US PCE price index and the latest US Jobless Claims
figures. Tomorrow, we conclude the week with the US CPI report and the
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey. As a reminder, we have also
the US-Iran negotiations in Islamabad tomorrow which is going to be more
important than the economic data.
