S&P 500, Dow, Volatility, Dollar, Yields, Inflation and Recession Talking Points:
- The Market Perspective: S&P 500 Bearish Below 3,800; USDCNH Bearish Below 7.0000
- The first week of the year registered a 1.5 percent gain for the S&P 500 and -3.0 percent drop from the VIX, lining up to seasonal norms
- While the market’s sidled higher with a backdrop of tempered rate expectations, there is significant contrast in recession risks and risk from extremely complacent conditions
Recommended by John Kicklighter
Get Your Free Top Trading Opportunities Forecast
Seasonal norms won out this past week, which is incredible considering the threat of an impending recession grew considerably more tangible and market complacency has pushed to blatantly extreme levels. Looking back at the performance of the various benchmark risk assets that I monitor for a global perspective, it was clear that the bid wasn’t siloed to specific asset or regions. Global indices, emerging markets, high yield fixed income, carry trade and some speculative-oriented commodities posted notable gains. In some cases, the bullish interest comes with the technical context of a recovery from significantly depressed levels – like the Nasdaq 100 which is only 5 percent away from tipping into new multi-year lows. For such markets, nuanced changes in key themes can foster a rebound that can subsist as a counter-trend ‘bounce’ without spurring the commitment necessary for a long-term bull trend. On the other hand, we have certain measures that flagrantly defy traditional fundamentals and will draw much greater scrutiny – as with the UK’s FTSE 100 at multi-year highs and within easy reach of records.
Focusing in on my preferred ‘imperfect’ benchmark for risk, the S&P 500, there was a nascent charge that doesn’t raise the specter of a definitive trend. The index finally managed to clear out an exceptionally narrow 13-day trading range that was the hold over of holiday conditions. The break may also be at least be a partial by-product of those seasonal conditions as well. Breaking down the S&P 500’s average weekly performance over the calendar year, the first week has averaged the strongest overall gain of the entire 52-week period back to 1900. A 1.0 percent averaged gain isn’t far off the 1.5 percent advance that was largely earned on Friday’s session. Whether this was more a genuine break (one I would consider backed by ‘conviction’) or capital flows associated with reinvesting capital to start the year will be put to the test in the week ahead. We broke the narrow, near three week range, but the midpoint of the August – October range and range low from November 11th to December 14th at 3,910 is still overhead.
| Change in | Longs | Shorts | OI |
| Daily | -14% | 15% | -3% |
| Weekly | -8% | 7% | -1% |
Chart of the S&P 500 with Volume and 100-Day SMA (Daily)
Chart Created on Tradingview Platform
The market’s next leg – in sentiment as much as the US indices – will draw increasingly on the market’s fundamental convictions as the tide in liquidity levels out. The pace for which we anchor back into predictable themes depends on circumstances, but I like to also evaluate markets according to potential. There is a possibility that speculative markets resolve to the bulls to continue the recovery from 2022’s broader losses as much as there is a probability that the bears regain control over the yoke as the systemic themes continue to paint a negative picture. The outcome depends on the path of key events as well as the prioritization of the masses. That said, I believe there to be a skew in the ‘potential’ of the different outcomes. Should bullish interests (say in the S&P 500) win out, it is more likely to be based in nuance such as a ‘mild recession’ or ‘slightly lower oppressive interest rates’. That would likely lead to slower and choppier gains, especially with the market’s sense of implied risk so low. Conversely, an eruption of fear could amplify a market that is poorly positioned to absorb the bears. Consider the VVIX ‘Volatility of Volatility’ Index. It dove to its lowest level since March 2017. I would say that is remarkably complacent.
Chart of the VVIX Volatility of Volatility Index Overlaid with the VIX (Weekly)
Chart Created on Tradingview Platform
A big consideration for what shape the markets take in the week and weeks ahead is what the top fundamental focus shakes out to be. This past week, we were presented the unique opportunity to test two of the leading considerations on the macro spectrum: rate speculation versus growth forecasting. The Friday morning US nonfarm payrolls seemed to give a light push in favor of Fed prognostication when the 226,000 net increase modestly beat expectations, dampening economic concerns; while the average hourly earnings growth decelerated to 4.6 percent year-over-year to modestly ease terminal rate projections. Perhaps if it were not for the NFPs, the reaction to the ISM service sector activity report could have been very different. Representing a timely look at the largest component of economic activity and employment in the US, the ISM reading dropped 6.9 points and into ‘contractionary’ territory. Such an event lines up very well to past recessions, but that didn’t seem to hit the market’s radar. With a perspective that Fed expectations were already easing, this would amplify the move. But are slightly lower Fed rates really a greater boon for markets than a recession is a threat?
Chart of ISM Service and Manufacturing Surveys, S&P 500 and US Recessions (Monthly)
Chart Created by John Kicklighter
For something like the US Dollar, the push and pull of an interest rates versus growth question is not as pressing. It can certainly respond to both themes in its role as the world’s most liquid currency – and the many guises it dons given that position. Considering the Fed Fund futures implied June dropped to 4.95 percent with US 2-year yields posting their biggest single-day slide since November 10th’s CPI release, the implications for the Greenback as a recent carry benefactor were straightforward. This currency is more sensitive to the particulars of Fed yield curve forecasting so long as the more systemic matters of global sentiment don’t crowd out our senses. Should risk aversion kick back in, the bid for a safe haven like the Dollar will start to conflict with a likely further slide in rate projections. The more intense a sentiment swoon, the scales will tip for the USD to act as a liquidity provider of last resort. It would take quite the dive to escalate our fears to that scale, but it is certainly within the scenarios we could face ahead as liquidity is topped off.
Chart of the DXY Dollar Index with 200-Day SMA Overlaid with US 2-Year Yield (Daily)
Chart Created on Tradingview Platform
Ultimately, the US doesn’t have the lock up on dictating global sentiment. Then again, its scale does give it greater sway when its own conditions are developing significantly. What’s more, the economic calendar for the coming week seems to be disproportionately weighted towards US influence. For interest rate speculation, we have the market’s favorite inflation indicator, the CPI, due for release on Thursday. Fed Chairman Powell will also be speaking on Tuesday, but his comments could just as readily spill into an economic assessment considering how frequently he has mentioned that side of the coin of late. Friday’s bank earnings and University of Michigan consumer sentiment report, though, are much more likely to start with a growth perspective.
Top Macro Economic Event Risk Next Week
Calendar Created by John Kicklighter
`show()this.visiblehide()this.visible&&!this.hiding&&(this.hiding=!0,this.fadeProgressElement(()=>this.uninstallProgressElement(),this.stopTrickling(),this.visible=!1,this.hiding=!1))setValue(value)this.value=value,this.refresh()installStylesheetElement()document.head.insertBefore(this.stylesheetElement,document.head.firstChild)installProgressElement()this.progressElement.style.width="0",this.progressElement.style.opacity="1",document.documentElement.insertBefore(this.progressElement,document.body),this.refresh()fadeProgressElement(callback)this.progressElement.style.opacity="0",setTimeout(callback,1.5*ProgressBar.animationDuration)uninstallProgressElement()this.progressElement.parentNode&&document.documentElement.removeChild(this.progressElement)startTrickling()(this.trickleInterval=window.setInterval(this.trickle,ProgressBar.animationDuration))stopTrickling()window.clearInterval(this.trickleInterval),delete this.trickleIntervalrefresh()requestAnimationFrame(()=>this.progressElement.style.width=10+90*this.value+"%")createStylesheetElement()var element=document.createElement("style");return element.type="text/css",element.textContent=ProgressBar.defaultCSS,elementcreateProgressElement()var element=document.createElement("div");return element.className="turbo-progress-bar",elementProgressBar.animationDuration=300;class HeadSnapshot extends Snapshot{constructor(){super(...arguments),this.detailsByOuterHTML=this.children.filter(element=>!function elementIsNoscript(element)element=element.tagName.toLowerCase();return"noscript"==element(element)).map(element=>function elementWithoutNonce(element)element.hasAttribute("nonce")&&element.setAttribute("nonce","");return element(element)).reduce((result,element)=>var outerHTML=element["outerHTML"],details=outerHTML in result?result[outerHTML]:type:function elementType(element)return function elementIsScript(element)element=element.tagName.toLowerCase();return"script"==element(element)?"script":function elementIsStylesheet(element)"link"==tagName&&"stylesheet"==element.getAttribute("rel")(element)?"stylesheet":void 0(element),tracked:function elementIsTracked(element)return"reload"==element.getAttribute("data-turbo-track")(element),elements:[];return Object.assign(Object.assign(,result),[outerHTML]:Object.assign(Object.assign(,details),elements:[...details.elements,element])),)}get trackedElementSignature()return Object.keys(this.detailsByOuterHTML).filter(outerHTML=>this.detailsByOuterHTML[outerHTML].tracked).join("")getScriptElementsNotInSnapshot(snapshot)return this.getElementsMatchingTypeNotInSnapshot("script",snapshot)getStylesheetElementsNotInSnapshot(snapshot)return this.getElementsMatchingTypeNotInSnapshot("stylesheet",snapshot)getElementsMatchingTypeNotInSnapshot(matchedType,snapshot)return Object.keys(this.detailsByOuterHTML).filter(outerHTML=>!(outerHTML in snapshot.detailsByOuterHTML)).map(outerHTML=>this.detailsByOuterHTML[outerHTML]).filter((type)=>type==matchedType).map((elements:[element])=>element)get provisionalElements()return Object.keys(this.detailsByOuterHTML).reduce((result,outerHTML)=>vartype:outerHTML,tracked,elements=this.detailsByOuterHTML[outerHTML];return null!=outerHTML,[])getMetaValue(name)name=this.findMetaElementByName(name);return name?name.getAttribute("content"):nullfindMetaElementByName(name)return Object.keys(this.detailsByOuterHTML).reduce((result,outerHTML)=>var[outerHTML]=this.detailsByOuterHTML[outerHTML]["elements"];return function elementIsMetaElementWithName(element,name)var tagName=element.tagName.toLowerCase();return"meta"==tagName&&element.getAttribute("name")==name(outerHTML,name)?outerHTML:result,void 0)}class PageSnapshot extends Snapshotconstructor(element,headSnapshot)super(element),this.headSnapshot=headSnapshotstatic fromHTMLString(html="")return this.fromDocument(parseHTMLDocument(html))static fromElement(element)return this.fromDocument(element.ownerDocument)static fromDocument(head,body)return new this(body,new HeadSnapshot(head))clone()return new PageSnapshot(this.element.cloneNode(!0),this.headSnapshot)get headElement()return this.headSnapshot.elementget rootLocation()var _a;return expandURL(null!=(_a=this.getSetting("root"))?_a:"/")get cacheControlValue()return this.getSetting("cache-control")get isPreviewable()return"no-preview"!=this.cacheControlValueget isCacheable()return"no-cache"!=this.cacheControlValueget isVisitable()return"reload"!=this.getSetting("visit-control")getSetting(name)return this.headSnapshot.getMetaValue("turbo-"+name)(prototype=TimingMetric=TimingMetric||).visitStart="visitStart",prototype.requestStart="requestStart",prototype.requestEnd="requestEnd",prototype.visitEnd="visitEnd",(prototype=VisitState=VisitState||).initialized="initialized",prototype.started="started",prototype.canceled="canceled",prototype.failed="failed";const defaultOptions=action:"advance",historyChanged:!(prototype.completed="completed"),visitCachedSnapshot:()=>,willRender:!0;(prototype=SystemStatusCode=SystemStatusCode||)[prototype.networkFailure=0]="networkFailure",prototype[prototype.timeoutFailure=-1]="timeoutFailure",prototype[prototype.contentTypeMismatch=-2]="contentTypeMismatch";class Visitconstructor(delegate,location2,restorationIdentifier,options=)get adapter()return this.delegate.adapterget view()return this.delegate.viewget history()return this.delegate.historyget restorationData()return this.history.getRestorationDataForIdentifier(this.restorationIdentifier)get silent()return this.isSamePagestart()this.state==VisitState.initialized&&(this.recordTimingMetric(TimingMetric.visitStart),this.state=VisitState.started,this.adapter.visitStarted(this),this.delegate.visitStarted(this))cancel()this.state==VisitState.started&&(this.request&&this.request.cancel(),this.cancelRender(),this.state=VisitState.canceled)complete()this.state==VisitState.started&&(this.recordTimingMetric(TimingMetric.visitEnd),this.state=VisitState.completed,this.adapter.visitCompleted(this),this.delegate.visitCompleted(this),this.followRedirect())fail()this.state==VisitState.started&&(this.state=VisitState.failed,this.adapter.visitFailed(this))changeHistory()issueRequest()this.hasPreloadedResponse()?this.simulateRequest():this.shouldIssueRequest()&&!this.request&&(this.request=new FetchRequest(this,FetchMethod.get,this.location),this.request.perform())simulateRequest()this.response&&(this.startRequest(),this.recordResponse(),this.finishRequest())startRequest()this.recordTimingMetric(TimingMetric.requestStart),this.adapter.visitRequestStarted(this)recordResponse(response=this.response)(this.response=response)&&(response=response["statusCode"],isSuccessful(response)?this.adapter.visitRequestCompleted(this):this.adapter.visitRequestFailedWithStatusCode(this,response))finishRequest()this.recordTimingMetric(TimingMetric.requestEnd),this.adapter.visitRequestFinished(this)loadResponse()if(this.response)conststatusCode,responseHTML=this.response;this.render(()=>__async$3(this,null,function*()this.cacheSnapshot(),this.view.renderPromise&&(yield this.view.renderPromise),isSuccessful(statusCode)&&null!=responseHTML?(yield this.view.renderPage(PageSnapshot.fromHTMLString(responseHTML),!1,this.willRender),this.adapter.visitRendered(this),this.complete()):(yield this.view.renderError(PageSnapshot.fromHTMLString(responseHTML)),this.adapter.visitRendered(this),this.fail())))getCachedSnapshot()var snapshot=this.view.getCachedSnapshotForLocation(this.location)getPreloadedSnapshot()if(this.snapshotHTML)return PageSnapshot.fromHTMLString(this.snapshotHTML)hasCachedSnapshot()return null!=this.getCachedSnapshot()loadCachedSnapshot()const snapshot=this.getCachedSnapshot();if(snapshot)const isPreview=this.shouldIssueRequest();this.render(()=>__async$3(this,null,function*()this.cacheSnapshot(),this.isSamePage?this.adapter.visitRendered(this):(this.view.renderPromise&&(yield this.view.renderPromise),yield this.view.renderPage(snapshot,isPreview,this.willRender),this.adapter.visitRendered(this),isPreview))followRedirect()var _a;this.redirectedToLocation&&!this.followedRedirect&&null!=(_a=this.response)&&_a.redirected&&(this.adapter.visitProposedToLocation(this.redirectedToLocation,action:"replace",response:this.response),this.followedRedirect=!0)goToSamePageAnchor()this.isSamePage&&this.render(()=>__async$3(this,null,function*()this.cacheSnapshot(),this.adapter.visitRendered(this)))requestStarted()this.startRequest()requestPreventedHandlingResponse(request,response)requestSucceededWithResponse(request,response)return __async$3(this,null,function*()var responseHTML=yield response.responseHTML,redirected,statusCode=response;null==responseHTML?this.recordResponse(statusCode:SystemStatusCode.contentTypeMismatch,redirected:redirected):(this.redirectedToLocation=response.redirected?response.location:void 0,this.recordResponse(statusCode:statusCode,responseHTML:responseHTML,redirected:redirected)))requestFailedWithResponse(request,response)return __async$3(this,null,function*()var responseHTML=yield response.responseHTML,redirected,statusCode=response;null==responseHTML?this.recordResponse(statusCode:SystemStatusCode.contentTypeMismatch,redirected:redirected):this.recordResponse(statusCode:statusCode,responseHTML:responseHTML,redirected:redirected))requestErrored(request,error)this.recordResponse(statusCode:SystemStatusCode.networkFailure,redirected:!1)requestFinished()this.finishRequest()performScroll()scrollToRestoredPosition()var scrollPosition=this.restorationData["scrollPosition"];if(scrollPosition)return this.view.scrollToPosition(scrollPosition),!0scrollToAnchor()var anchor=getAnchor(this.location);if(null!=anchor)return this.view.scrollToAnchor(anchor),!0recordTimingMetric(metric)this.timingMetrics[metric]=(new Date).getTime()getTimingMetrics()return Object.assign(,this.timingMetrics)getHistoryMethodForAction(action)switch(action)case"replace":return history.replaceState;case"advance":case"restore":return history.pushStatehasPreloadedResponse()return"object"==typeof this.responseshouldIssueRequest()return!this.isSamePage&&("restore"==this.action?!this.hasCachedSnapshot():this.willRender)cacheSnapshot()render(callback)return __async$3(this,null,function*()this.cancelRender(),yield new Promise(resolve=>this.frame=requestAnimationFrame(()=>resolve())),yield callback(),delete this.frame,this.performScroll())cancelRender()this.frame&&(cancelAnimationFrame(this.frame),delete this.frame)function isSuccessful(statusCode)return 200<=statusCode&&statusCode<300class BrowserAdapterconstructor(session2)this.progressBar=new ProgressBar,this.showProgressBar=()=>this.progressBar.show(),this.session=session2visitProposedToLocation(location2,options)this.navigator.startVisit(location2,uuid(),options)visitStarted(visit2)visit2.loadCachedSnapshot(),visit2.issueRequest(),visit2.changeHistory(),visit2.goToSamePageAnchor()visitRequestStarted(visit2)"restore"!=visit2.action?this.showVisitProgressBarAfterDelay():this.showProgressBar()visitRequestCompleted(visit2)visit2.loadResponse()visitRequestFailedWithStatusCode(visit2,statusCode)switch(statusCode)case SystemStatusCode.networkFailure:case SystemStatusCode.timeoutFailure:case SystemStatusCode.contentTypeMismatch:return this.reload();default:return visit2.loadResponse()visitRequestFinished(visit2)this.progressBar.setValue(1),this.hideVisitProgressBar()visitCompleted(visit2)pageInvalidated()this.reload()visitFailed(visit2)visitRendered(visit2)formSubmissionStarted(formSubmission)this.progressBar.setValue(0),this.showFormProgressBarAfterDelay()formSubmissionFinished(formSubmission)this.progressBar.setValue(1),this.hideFormProgressBar()showVisitProgressBarAfterDelay()this.visitProgressBarTimeout=window.setTimeout(this.showProgressBar,this.session.progressBarDelay)hideVisitProgressBar()this.progressBar.hide(),null!=this.visitProgressBarTimeout&&(window.clearTimeout(this.visitProgressBarTimeout),delete this.visitProgressBarTimeout)showFormProgressBarAfterDelay()null==this.formProgressBarTimeout&&(this.formProgressBarTimeout=window.setTimeout(this.showProgressBar,this.session.progressBarDelay))hideFormProgressBar()this.progressBar.hide(),null!=this.formProgressBarTimeout&&(window.clearTimeout(this.formProgressBarTimeout),delete this.formProgressBarTimeout)reload()window.location.reload()get navigator()return this.session.navigatorclass CacheObserverconstructor()this.started=!1start()(this.started=!0,addEventListener("turbo:before-cache",this.removeStaleElements,!1))stop()this.started&&(this.started=!1,removeEventListener("turbo:before-cache",this.removeStaleElements,!1))removeStaleElements()for(const element of[...document.querySelectorAll('[data-turbo-cache="false"]')])element.remove()class FormSubmitObserverconstructor(delegate)this.started=!1,this.submitCaptured=()=>removeEventListener("submit",this.submitBubbled,!1),addEventListener("submit",this.submitBubbled,!1),this.submitBubbled=event=>void 0,form&&"dialog"!=((null==submitter?void 0:submitter.getAttribute("formmethod")),this.delegate=delegatestart()this.startedstop()this.started&&(removeEventListener("submit",this.submitCaptured,!0),this.started=!1)class FrameRedirectorconstructor(element)this.element=element,this.linkInterceptor=new LinkInterceptor(this,element),this.formInterceptor=new FormInterceptor(this,element)start()this.linkInterceptor.start(),this.formInterceptor.start()stop()this.linkInterceptor.stop(),this.formInterceptor.stop()shouldInterceptLinkClick(element,url)return this.shouldRedirect(element)linkClickIntercepted(element,url)var frame=this.findFrameElement(element);frame&&frame.delegate.linkClickIntercepted(element,url)shouldInterceptFormSubmission(element,submitter)return this.shouldSubmit(element,submitter)formSubmissionIntercepted(element,submitter)var frame=this.findFrameElement(element,submitter);frame&&(frame.removeAttribute("reloadable"),frame.delegate.formSubmissionIntercepted(element,submitter))shouldSubmit(form,submitter)var action=getAction(form,submitter),meta=this.element.ownerDocument.querySelector('meta[name="turbo-root"]'),meta=expandURL(null!=(meta=null==meta?void 0:meta.content)?meta:"/");return this.shouldRedirect(form,submitter)&&locationIsVisitable(action,meta)shouldRedirect(element,submitter)submitter=this.findFrameElement(element,submitter);return!!submitter&&submitter!=element.closest("turbo-frame")findFrameElement(element,submitter)submitter=(null==submitter?void 0:submitter.getAttribute("data-turbo-frame"))class Historyconstructor(delegate)this.restorationIdentifier=uuid(),this.restorationData=,this.started=!1,this.pageLoaded=!1,this.onPopState=event=>)["turbo"],event&&(this.location=new URL(window.location.href),event=event["restorationIdentifier"],this.restorationIdentifier=event,this.delegate.historyPoppedToLocationWithRestorationIdentifier(this.location,event))),this.onPageLoad=event=>__async$3(this,null,function*()yield function nextMicrotask()return Promise.resolve()(),this.pageLoaded=!0),this.delegate=delegatestart()stop()this.started&&(removeEventListener("popstate",this.onPopState,!1),removeEventListener("load",this.onPageLoad,!1),this.started=!1)push(location2,restorationIdentifier)this.update(history.pushState,location2,restorationIdentifier)replace(location2,restorationIdentifier)this.update(history.replaceState,location2,restorationIdentifier)update(method,location2,restorationIdentifier=uuid())method.call(history,turbo:restorationIdentifier:restorationIdentifier,"",location2.href),this.location=location2,this.restorationIdentifier=restorationIdentifiergetRestorationDataForIdentifier(restorationIdentifier)return this.restorationData[restorationIdentifier]updateRestorationData(additionalData)var restorationIdentifier=this["restorationIdentifier"],restorationData=this.restorationData[restorationIdentifier];this.restorationData[restorationIdentifier]=Object.assign(Object.assign(,restorationData),additionalData)assumeControlOfScrollRestoration()(this.previousScrollRestoration=null!=(_a=history.scrollRestoration)?_a:"auto",history.scrollRestoration="manual")relinquishControlOfScrollRestoration()this.previousScrollRestoration&&(history.scrollRestoration=this.previousScrollRestoration,delete this.previousScrollRestoration)shouldHandlePopState()return this.pageIsLoaded()pageIsLoaded()"complete"==document.readyStateclass LinkClickObserverconstructor(delegate)this.started=!1,this.clickCaptured=()=>removeEventListener("click",this.clickBubbled,!1),addEventListener("click",this.clickBubbled,!1),this.clickBubbled=event=>,this.delegate=delegatestart()(addEventListener("click",this.clickCaptured,!0),this.started=!0)stop()this.started&&(removeEventListener("click",this.clickCaptured,!0),this.started=!1)clickEventIsSignificant(event)event.altKeyfindLinkFromClickTarget(target)if(target instanceof Element)return target.closest("a[href]:not([target^=_]):not([download])")getLocationForLink(link)return expandURL(link.getAttribute("href")function isAction(action)"restore"==actionclass Navigator{constructor(delegate)this.delegate=delegateproposeVisit(location2,options=)this.delegate.allowsVisitingLocationWithAction(location2,options.action)&&(locationIsVisitable(location2,this.view.snapshot.rootLocation)?this.delegate.visitProposedToLocation(location2,options):window.location.href=location2.toString())startVisit(locatable,restorationIdentifier,options=)this.stop(),this.currentVisit=new Visit(this,expandURL(locatable),restorationIdentifier,Object.assign(referrer:this.location,options)),this.currentVisit.start()submitForm(form,submitter)this.stop(),this.formSubmission=new FormSubmission(this,form,submitter,!0),this.formSubmission.start()stop()this.formSubmission&&(this.formSubmission.stop(),delete this.formSubmission),this.currentVisit&&(this.currentVisit.cancel(),delete this.currentVisit)get adapter()return this.delegate.adapterget view()return this.delegate.viewget history()return this.delegate.historyformSubmissionStarted(formSubmission)"function"==typeof this.adapter.formSubmissionStarted&&this.adapter.formSubmissionStarted(formSubmission)formSubmissionSucceededWithResponse(formSubmission,fetchResponse)return __async$3(this,null,function*()var responseHTML,statusCode,redirected,action;formSubmission==this.formSubmission&&(responseHTML=yield fetchResponse.responseHTML)&&(formSubmission.method!=FetchMethod.get&&this.view.clearSnapshotCache(),statusCode,redirected=fetchResponse,action=this.getActionForFormSubmission(formSubmission),this.proposeVisit(fetchResponse.location,action:action,response:statusCode:statusCode,responseHTML:responseHTML,redirected:redirected)))formSubmissionFailedWithResponse(formSubmission,fetchResponse)return __async$3(this,null,function*()var responseHTML=yield fetchResponse.responseHTML;responseHTML&&(responseHTML=PageSnapshot.fromHTMLString(responseHTML),fetchResponse.serverError?yield this.view.renderError(responseHTML):yield this.view.renderPage(responseHTML),this.view.scrollToTop(),this.view.clearSnapshotCache()))formSubmissionErrored(formSubmission,error)console.error(error)formSubmissionFinished(formSubmission)"function"==typeof this.adapter.formSubmissionFinished&&this.adapter.formSubmissionFinished(formSubmission)visitStarted(visit2)this.delegate.visitStarted(visit2)visitCompleted(visit2)this.delegate.visitCompleted(visit2)locationWithActionIsSamePage(location2,action)null!=anchor&&anchor!==currentAnchor)visitScrolledToSamePageLocation(oldURL,newURL)this.delegate.visitScrolledToSamePageLocation(oldURL,newURL)get location()return this.history.locationget restorationIdentifier()return this.history.restorationIdentifiergetActionForFormSubmission(formSubmission)varformElement:formSubmission,submitter=formSubmission,submitter=getAttribute("data-turbo-action",submitter,formSubmission);return isAction(submitter)?submitter:"advance"}(prototype=PageStage=PageStage||)[prototype.initial=0]="initial",prototype[prototype.loading=1]="loading",prototype[prototype.interactive=2]="interactive",prototype[prototype.complete=3]="complete";class PageObserverconstructor(delegate)this.stage=PageStage.initial,this.started=!1,this.interpretReadyState=()=>var readyState=this["readyState"];"interactive"==readyState?this.pageIsInteractive():"complete"==readyState&&this.pageIsComplete(),this.pageWillUnload=()=>this.delegate.pageWillUnload(),this.delegate=delegatestart()stop()this.started&&(document.removeEventListener("readystatechange",this.interpretReadyState,!1),removeEventListener("pagehide",this.pageWillUnload,!1),this.started=!1)pageIsInteractive()this.stage==PageStage.loading&&(this.stage=PageStage.interactive,this.delegate.pageBecameInteractive())pageIsComplete()this.pageIsInteractive(),this.stage==PageStage.interactive&&(this.stage=PageStage.complete,this.delegate.pageLoaded())get readyState()return document.readyStateclass ScrollObserverconstructor(delegate)this.started=!1,this.onScroll=()=>this.updatePosition(x:window.pageXOffset,y:window.pageYOffset),this.delegate=delegatestart()stop()this.started&&(removeEventListener("scroll",this.onScroll,!1),this.started=!1)updatePosition(position)this.delegate.scrollPositionChanged(position)class StreamObserverconstructor(delegate)this.sources=new Set,this.started=!1,this.inspectFetchResponse=event=>var response=function fetchResponseFromEvent(event)event=null==(event=event.detail)?void 0:event.fetchResponse;if(event instanceof FetchResponse)return event(event);response&&function fetchResponseIsStream(response)response=null!=(response=response.contentType)?response:"";return response.startsWith(StreamMessage.contentType)(response)&&(event.preventDefault(),this.receiveMessageResponse(response)),this.receiveMessageEvent=event=>this.started&&"string"==typeof event.data&&this.receiveMessageHTML(event.data),this.delegate=delegatestart()this.startedstop()this.started&&(this.started=!1,removeEventListener("turbo:before-fetch-response",this.inspectFetchResponse,!1))connectStreamSource(source)(this.sources.add(source),source.addEventListener("message",this.receiveMessageEvent,!1))disconnectStreamSource(source)this.streamSourceIsConnected(source)&&(this.sources.delete(source),source.removeEventListener("message",this.receiveMessageEvent,!1))streamSourceIsConnected(source)return this.sources.has(source)receiveMessageResponse(response)return __async$3(this,null,function*()var html=yield response.responseHTML;html&&this.receiveMessageHTML(html))receiveMessageHTML(html)this.delegate.receivedMessageFromStream(new StreamMessage(html))class ErrorRenderer extends Rendererrender()return __async$3(this,null,function*()this.replaceHeadAndBody(),this.activateScriptElements())replaceHeadAndBody()vardocumentElement,head,body=document;documentElement.replaceChild(this.newHead,head),documentElement.replaceChild(this.newElement,body)activateScriptElements()for(const replaceableElement of this.scriptElements)var element,parentNode=replaceableElement.parentNode;parentNode&&(element=this.createScriptElement(replaceableElement),parentNode.replaceChild(element,replaceableElement))get newHead()return this.newSnapshot.headSnapshot.elementget scriptElements()return[...document.documentElement.querySelectorAll("script")]class PageRenderer extends Rendererget shouldRender()return this.newSnapshot.isVisitable&&this.trackedElementsAreIdenticalprepareToRender()this.mergeHead()render()return __async$3(this,null,function*()this.willRender&&this.replaceBody())finishRendering()this.focusFirstAutofocusableElement()get currentHeadSnapshot()return this.currentSnapshot.headSnapshotget newHeadSnapshot()return this.newSnapshot.headSnapshotget newElement()return this.newSnapshot.elementmergeHead()this.copyNewHeadStylesheetElements(),this.copyNewHeadScriptElements(),this.removeCurrentHeadProvisionalElements(),this.copyNewHeadProvisionalElements()replaceBody()this.preservingPermanentElements(()=>this.activateNewBody(),this.assignNewBody())get trackedElementsAreIdentical()return this.currentHeadSnapshot.trackedElementSignature==this.newHeadSnapshot.trackedElementSignaturecopyNewHeadStylesheetElements()for(const element of this.newHeadStylesheetElements)document.head.appendChild(element)copyNewHeadScriptElements()for(const element of this.newHeadScriptElements)document.head.appendChild(this.createScriptElement(element))removeCurrentHeadProvisionalElements()for(const element of this.currentHeadProvisionalElements)document.head.removeChild(element)copyNewHeadProvisionalElements()for(const element of this.newHeadProvisionalElements)document.head.appendChild(element)activateNewBody()document.adoptNode(this.newElement),this.activateNewBodyScriptElements()activateNewBodyScriptElements()for(const inertScriptElement of this.newBodyScriptElements)var activatedScriptElement=this.createScriptElement(inertScriptElement);inertScriptElement.replaceWith(activatedScriptElement)assignNewBody()document.body&&this.newElement instanceof HTMLBodyElement?document.body.replaceWith(this.newElement):document.documentElement.appendChild(this.newElement)get newHeadStylesheetElements()return this.newHeadSnapshot.getStylesheetElementsNotInSnapshot(this.currentHeadSnapshot)get newHeadScriptElements()return this.newHeadSnapshot.getScriptElementsNotInSnapshot(this.currentHeadSnapshot)get currentHeadProvisionalElements()return this.currentHeadSnapshot.provisionalElementsget newHeadProvisionalElements()return this.newHeadSnapshot.provisionalElementsget newBodyScriptElements()return this.newElement.querySelectorAll("script")class SnapshotCacheconstructor(size)this.keys=[],this.snapshots=,this.size=sizehas(location2)return toCacheKey(location2)in this.snapshotsget(location2)var snapshot;if(this.has(location2))return snapshot=this.read(location2),this.touch(location2),snapshotput(location2,snapshot)return this.write(location2,snapshot),this.touch(location2),snapshotclear()this.snapshots=read(location2)return this.snapshots[toCacheKey(location2)]write(location2,snapshot)this.snapshots[toCacheKey(location2)]=snapshottouch(location2)var location2=toCacheKey(location2),index=this.keys.indexOf(location2);-1setTimeout(()=>resolve(),0))(),snapshot=snapshot.clone(),this.snapshotCache.put(location2,snapshot),snapshot)getCachedSnapshotForLocation(location2)return this.snapshotCache.get(location2)get snapshot()return PageSnapshot.fromElement(this.element)get shouldCacheSnapshot()return this.snapshot.isCacheablefunction extendURLWithDeprecatedProperties(url)Object.defineProperties(url,deprecatedLocationPropertyDescriptors)const deprecatedLocationPropertyDescriptors=absoluteURL:get()return this.toString(),session=new class Sessionconstructor()this.navigator=new Navigator(this),this.history=new History(this),this.view=new PageView(this,document.documentElement),this.adapter=new BrowserAdapter(this),this.pageObserver=new PageObserver(this),this.cacheObserver=new CacheObserver,this.linkClickObserver=new LinkClickObserver(this),this.formSubmitObserver=new FormSubmitObserver(this),this.scrollObserver=new ScrollObserver(this),this.streamObserver=new StreamObserver(this),this.frameRedirector=new FrameRedirector(document.documentElement),this.drive=!0,this.enabled=!0,this.progressBarDelay=500,this.started=!1start()this.starteddisable()this.enabled=!1stop()this.started&&(this.pageObserver.stop(),this.cacheObserver.stop(),this.linkClickObserver.stop(),this.formSubmitObserver.stop(),this.scrollObserver.stop(),this.streamObserver.stop(),this.frameRedirector.stop(),this.history.stop(),this.started=!1)registerAdapter(adapter)this.adapter=adaptervisit(location2,options=)this.navigator.proposeVisit(expandURL(location2),options)connectStreamSource(source)this.streamObserver.connectStreamSource(source)disconnectStreamSource(source)this.streamObserver.disconnectStreamSource(source)renderStreamMessage(message)document.documentElement.appendChild(StreamMessage.wrap(message).fragment)clearCache()this.view.clearSnapshotCache()setProgressBarDelay(delay)this.progressBarDelay=delayget location()return this.history.locationget restorationIdentifier()return this.history.restorationIdentifierhistoryPoppedToLocationWithRestorationIdentifier(location2,restorationIdentifier)this.enabled?this.navigator.startVisit(location2,restorationIdentifier,action:"restore",historyChanged:!0):this.adapter.pageInvalidated()scrollPositionChanged(position)this.history.updateRestorationData(scrollPosition:position)willFollowLinkToLocation(link,location2)return this.elementDriveEnabled(link)&&locationIsVisitable(location2,this.snapshot.rootLocation)&&this.applicationAllowsFollowingLinkToLocation(link,location2)followedLinkToLocation(link,location2)var action=this.getActionForLink(link);this.convertLinkWithMethodClickToFormSubmission(link)convertLinkWithMethodClickToFormSubmission(link)var linkMethod=link.getAttribute("data-turbo-method");if(linkMethod)"undefined",form.hidden=!0,link.hasAttribute("data-turbo-confirm")&&form.setAttribute("data-turbo-confirm",link.getAttribute("data-turbo-confirm"));linkMethod=this.getTargetFrameForLink(link);return linkMethod?(form.setAttribute("data-turbo-frame",linkMethod),form.addEventListener("turbo:submit-start",()=>form.remove())):form.addEventListener("submit",()=>form.remove()),document.body.appendChild(form),dispatch("submit",cancelable:!0,target:form)return!1allowsVisitingLocationWithAction(location2,action)visitProposedToLocation(location2,options)extendURLWithDeprecatedProperties(location2),this.adapter.visitProposedToLocation(location2,options)visitStarted(visit2)visitCompleted(visit2)this.notifyApplicationAfterPageLoad(visit2.getTimingMetrics())locationWithActionIsSamePage(location2,action)return this.navigator.locationWithActionIsSamePage(location2,action)visitScrolledToSamePageLocation(oldURL,newURL)this.notifyApplicationAfterVisitingSamePageLocation(oldURL,newURL)willSubmitForm(form,submitter)var action=getAction(form,submitter);return this.elementDriveEnabled(form)&&(!submitterformSubmitted(form,submitter)this.navigator.submitForm(form,submitter)pageBecameInteractive()this.view.lastRenderedLocation=this.location,this.notifyApplicationAfterPageLoad()pageLoaded()this.history.assumeControlOfScrollRestoration()pageWillUnload()this.history.relinquishControlOfScrollRestoration()receivedMessageFromStream(message)this.renderStreamMessage(message)viewWillCacheSnapshot()allowsImmediateRender(element,resume)return!this.notifyApplicationBeforeRender(element,resume).defaultPreventedviewRenderedSnapshot(snapshot,isPreview)this.view.lastRenderedLocation=this.history.location,this.notifyApplicationAfterRender()viewInvalidated()this.adapter.pageInvalidated()frameLoaded(frame)this.notifyApplicationAfterFrameLoad(frame)frameRendered(fetchResponse,frame)this.notifyApplicationAfterFrameRender(fetchResponse,frame)applicationAllowsFollowingLinkToLocation(link,location2)return!this.notifyApplicationAfterClickingLinkToLocation(link,location2).defaultPreventedapplicationAllowsVisitingLocation(location2)return!this.notifyApplicationBeforeVisitingLocation(location2).defaultPreventednotifyApplicationAfterClickingLinkToLocation(link,location2)return dispatch("turbo:click",target:link,detail:url:location2.href,cancelable:!0)notifyApplicationBeforeVisitingLocation(location2)return dispatch("turbo:before-visit",detail:url:location2.href,cancelable:!0)notifyApplicationAfterVisitingLocation(location2,action)return markAsBusy(document.documentElement),dispatch("turbo:visit",detail:url:location2.href,action:action)notifyApplicationBeforeCachingSnapshot()return dispatch("turbo:before-cache")notifyApplicationBeforeRender(newBody,resume)return dispatch("turbo:before-render",detail:newBody:newBody,resume:resume,cancelable:!0)notifyApplicationAfterRender()return dispatch("turbo:render")notifyApplicationAfterPageLoad(timing=)return clearBusyState(document.documentElement),dispatch("turbo:load",detail:url:this.location.href,timing:timing)notifyApplicationAfterVisitingSamePageLocation(oldURL,newURL)dispatchEvent(new HashChangeEvent("hashchange",oldURL:oldURL.toString(),newURL:newURL.toString()))notifyApplicationAfterFrameLoad(frame)return dispatch("turbo:frame-load",target:frame)notifyApplicationAfterFrameRender(fetchResponse,frame)return dispatch("turbo:frame-render",detail:fetchResponse:fetchResponse,target:frame,cancelable:!0)elementDriveEnabled(element)getActionForLink(link)link=link.getAttribute("data-turbo-action");return isAction(link)?link:"advance"getTargetFrameForLink(link)var frame=link.getAttribute("data-turbo-frame");return frameget snapshot()return this.view.snapshot;var prototype=session["navigator"];function start()session.start()function registerAdapter(adapter)session.registerAdapter(adapter)function visit(location2,options)session.visit(location2,options)function connectStreamSource(source)session.connectStreamSource(source)function disconnectStreamSource(source)session.disconnectStreamSource(source)function renderStreamMessage(message)session.renderStreamMessage(message)function clearCache()session.clearCache()function setProgressBarDelay(delay)session.setProgressBarDelay(delay)function setConfirmMethod(confirmMethod)FormSubmission.confirmMethod=confirmMethodvar Turbo=Object.freeze(__proto__:null,navigator:prototype,session:session,PageRenderer:PageRenderer,PageSnapshot:PageSnapshot,start:start,registerAdapter:registerAdapter,visit:visit,connectStreamSource:connectStreamSource,disconnectStreamSource:disconnectStreamSource,renderStreamMessage:renderStreamMessage,clearCache:clearCache,setProgressBarDelay:setProgressBarDelay,setConfirmMethod:setConfirmMethod);class SnapshotSubstitutionconstructor(element)this.visitCachedSnapshot=(element:element2)=>varid,clone=this;null!=(element2=element2.querySelector("#"+id))&&element2.replaceWith(clone),this.clone=element.cloneNode(!0),this.id=element.idfunction getFrameElementById(id)if(null!=id)id=document.getElementById(id);if(id instanceof FrameElement)return idfunction activateElement(element,currentURL)if(element)var src=element.getAttribute("src");if(null!=src&&null!=currentURL&&function urlsAreEqual(left,right)return expandURL(left).href==expandURL(right).href(src,currentURL))throw new Error(`Matching element has a source URL which references itself`);if((element=element.ownerDocument!==document?document.importNode(element,!0):element)instanceof FrameElement)return element.connectedCallback(),element.disconnectedCallback(),elementconst StreamActions=after()this.targetElements.forEach(e=>var _a;return null==(_a=e.parentElement)?void 0:_a.insertBefore(this.templateContent,e.nextSibling)),append()this.removeDuplicateTargetChildren(),this.targetElements.forEach(e=>e.append(this.templateContent)),before()this.targetElements.forEach(e=>var _a;return null==(_a=e.parentElement)?void 0:_a.insertBefore(this.templateContent,e)),prepend()this.removeDuplicateTargetChildren(),this.targetElements.forEach(e=>e.prepend(this.templateContent)),remove()this.targetElements.forEach(e=>e.remove()),replace()this.targetElements.forEach(e=>e.replaceWith(this.templateContent)),update()this.targetElements.forEach(e=>e.innerHTML="",e.append(this.templateContent));class StreamElement extends HTMLElementconnectedCallback()return __async$3(this,null,function*()tryyield this.render()catch(error)console.error(error)finallythis.disconnect())render()return __async$3(this,null,function*()var _a;return null!=(_a=this.renderPromise)?_a:this.renderPromise=__async$3(this,null,function*()this.dispatchEvent(this.beforeRenderEvent)&&(yield nextAnimationFrame(),this.performAction())))disconnect()trythis.remove()catch(_a)removeDuplicateTargetChildren()this.duplicateChildren.forEach(c=>c.remove())get duplicateChildren()var _a,existingChildren=this.targetElements.flatMap(e=>[...e.children]).filter(c=>!!c.id);const newChildrenIds=[...null==(_a=this.templateContent)?void 0:_a.children].filter(c=>!!c.id).map(c=>c.id);return existingChildren.filter(c=>newChildrenIds.includes(c.id))get performAction()if(this.action)var actionFunction=StreamActions[this.action];if(actionFunction)return actionFunction;this.raise("unknown action")this.raise("action attribute is missing")get targetElements()return this.target?this.targetElementsById:this.targets?this.targetElementsByQuery:void this.raise("target or targets attribute is missing")get templateContent()return this.templateElement.content.cloneNode(!0)get templateElement()if(this.firstElementChild instanceof HTMLTemplateElement)return this.firstElementChild;this.raise("first child element must be a
