STOCK MARKET WEEK AHEAD OUTLOOK: BEARISH TO NEUTRAL
- S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 close the week higher despite rising Treasury yields
- The Fed’s hawkish monetary policy outlook remains a key risk for stocks
- Powell’s testimony before Congress and the February U.S. employment report will take the spotlight next week
Recommended by Diego Colman
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U.S. bond yields extended their recent rally this past week despite a moderate pullback on Friday, rising across most maturities amid a hawkish repricing of the Fed’s monetary policy outlook in the wake of hotter-than-expected economic data. At one point on Thursday, the entire Treasury curve topped 4.0% as expectations for the FOMC’s terminal rate drifted upwards and traders started to brace for a “higher-for-longer” interest rate regime in response to sticky inflation.
Counterintuitively, both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 managed to close the week with solid gains, up about 1.9% and 2.6%, respectively, shrugging off volatility in the fixed income space and surprising investors who had anticipated more subdued performance due to Fed jitters.
However, the strength in equity markets could reverse early next week, ahead of the release of a key U.S. macro report on Friday, March 10: the February U.S. employment report. Fed chairman Powell’s semi-annual testimony before Congress could also rattle positive sentiment if he embraces a forceful tone following the latest string of strong macro numbers.
2023 FED FUNDS FUTURES & US TREASURY YIELDS CHART
Traders may be tempted to start trimming exposure to risk assets and stay on the sidelines in the coming days to avoid stepping into “hawkish rhetoric” or, more importantly, a “hawkish datapoint” that could provide confirmation that the U.S. economy is holding up remarkably well and will likely require additional monetary tightening. This scenario could lead to some selling on Wall Street, biasing both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 to the downside in the very near term.
Focusing on the incoming nonfarm payrolls survey (NFP), U.S. employers are forecast to have added 200,000 workers last month, after hiring a whopping 517,000 people in January. Nevertheless, persistently low jobless claims in recent weeks, coupled with a sturdy rebound in the ISM services’ employment index, suggest labor market data could handily exceed consensus estimates.
US EMPLOYMENT REPORT EXPECTATIONS
Source: DailyFX Economic Calendar
Another hot NFP report will raise the risks that the Fed will ultimately do more to slow the economy to prevent elevated wage growth and demand pressures from exacerbating inflationary forces, which are showing tentative signs of regaining momentum. This means policymakers could start frontloading hikes again, while simultaneously signaling a higher peak rate of around 6.0%. Obviously, this would be a negative outcome for the stock market capable of undermining equities in the near term.
| Change in | Longs | Shorts | OI |
| Daily | -14% | 7% | -5% |
| Weekly | -11% | 12% | -1% |
NASDAQ 100 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
After finding technical support and rebounding off its 200-day simple moving average, the Nasdaq 100 has charged higher, with bulls now eyeing short-term trendline resistance near 12,400. If traders manage to push the tech index above this barrier in the coming sessions, buying interest could pick momentum, paving the way for a move towards 12,675, followed by 12,870, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the November 2021/October 2022 slump. On the flip side, if sellers regain decisive control of the market and trigger a bearish reversal, initial support appears at 11,900/11,820. If this area is taken out, bears could launch an attack on 11,655, the 50% Fib retracement of the October 2022/February 2023 rally.
NASDAQ 100 TECHNICAL CHART
Nasdaq 100 Chart Prepared Using TradingView
Written by Diego Colman, Contributing Strategist for DailyFX
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this.formProgressBarTimeout)reload()window.location.reload()get navigator()return this.session.navigatorclass CacheObserverconstructor()this.started=!1start()this.startedstop()this.started&&(this.started=!1,removeEventListener("turbo:before-cache",this.removeStaleElements,!1))removeStaleElements()for(const element of[...document.querySelectorAll('[data-turbo-cache="false"]')])element.remove()class FormSubmitObserverconstructor(delegate)this.started=!1,this.submitCaptured=()=>removeEventListener("submit",this.submitBubbled,!1),addEventListener("submit",this.submitBubbled,!1),this.submitBubbled=event=>var form,submitter;event.defaultPrevented,this.delegate=delegatestart()this.startedstop()this.started&&(removeEventListener("submit",this.submitCaptured,!0),this.started=!1)class FrameRedirectorconstructor(element)this.element=element,this.linkInterceptor=new LinkInterceptor(this,element),this.formInterceptor=new FormInterceptor(this,element)start()this.linkInterceptor.start(),this.formInterceptor.start()stop()this.linkInterceptor.stop(),this.formInterceptor.stop()shouldInterceptLinkClick(element,url)return this.shouldRedirect(element)linkClickIntercepted(element,url)var frame=this.findFrameElement(element);frame&&frame.delegate.linkClickIntercepted(element,url)shouldInterceptFormSubmission(element,submitter)return this.shouldSubmit(element,submitter)formSubmissionIntercepted(element,submitter)var frame=this.findFrameElement(element,submitter);frame&&(frame.removeAttribute("reloadable"),frame.delegate.formSubmissionIntercepted(element,submitter))shouldSubmit(form,submitter)var action=getAction(form,submitter),meta=this.element.ownerDocument.querySelector('meta[name="turbo-root"]'),meta=expandURL(null!=(meta=null==meta?void 0:meta.content)?meta:"/");return this.shouldRedirect(form,submitter)&&locationIsVisitable(action,meta)shouldRedirect(element,submitter)submitter=this.findFrameElement(element,submitter);return!!submitter&&submitter!=element.closest("turbo-frame")findFrameElement(element,submitter)submitter=(null==submitter?void 0:submitter.getAttribute("data-turbo-frame"))class Historyconstructor(delegate)this.restorationIdentifier=uuid(),this.restorationData=,this.started=!1,this.pageLoaded=!1,this.onPopState=event=>,this.onPageLoad=event=>__async$3(this,null,function*()yield function nextMicrotask()return Promise.resolve()(),this.pageLoaded=!0),this.delegate=delegatestart()stop()this.started&&(removeEventListener("popstate",this.onPopState,!1),removeEventListener("load",this.onPageLoad,!1),this.started=!1)push(location2,restorationIdentifier)this.update(history.pushState,location2,restorationIdentifier)replace(location2,restorationIdentifier)this.update(history.replaceState,location2,restorationIdentifier)update(method,location2,restorationIdentifier=uuid())method.call(history,turbo:restorationIdentifier:restorationIdentifier,"",location2.href),this.location=location2,this.restorationIdentifier=restorationIdentifiergetRestorationDataForIdentifier(restorationIdentifier)updateRestorationData(additionalData)var restorationIdentifier=this["restorationIdentifier"],restorationData=this.restorationData[restorationIdentifier];this.restorationData[restorationIdentifier]=Object.assign(Object.assign(,restorationData),additionalData)assumeControlOfScrollRestoration()(this.previousScrollRestoration=null!=(_a=history.scrollRestoration)?_a:"auto",history.scrollRestoration="manual")relinquishControlOfScrollRestoration()this.previousScrollRestoration&&(history.scrollRestoration=this.previousScrollRestoration,delete this.previousScrollRestoration)shouldHandlePopState()return this.pageIsLoaded()pageIsLoaded()"complete"==document.readyStateclass LinkClickObserverconstructor(delegate)this.started=!1,this.clickCaptured=()=>removeEventListener("click",this.clickBubbled,!1),addEventListener("click",this.clickBubbled,!1),this.clickBubbled=event=>event.target,(target=this.findLinkFromClickTarget(target))&&(location2=this.getLocationForLink(target),this.delegate.willFollowLinkToLocation(target,location2)&&(event.preventDefault(),this.delegate.followedLinkToLocation(target,location2)))),this.delegate=delegatestart()(addEventListener("click",this.clickCaptured,!0),this.started=!0)stop()this.started&&(removeEventListener("click",this.clickCaptured,!0),this.started=!1)clickEventIsSignificant(event)1var readyState=this["readyState"];"interactive"==readyState?this.pageIsInteractive():"complete"==readyState&&this.pageIsComplete(),this.pageWillUnload=()=>this.delegate.pageWillUnload(),this.delegate=delegatestart()(this.stage==PageStage.initial&&(this.stage=PageStage.loading),document.addEventListener("readystatechange",this.interpretReadyState,!1),addEventListener("pagehide",this.pageWillUnload,!1),this.started=!0)stop()this.started&&(document.removeEventListener("readystatechange",this.interpretReadyState,!1),removeEventListener("pagehide",this.pageWillUnload,!1),this.started=!1)pageIsInteractive()this.stage==PageStage.loading&&(this.stage=PageStage.interactive,this.delegate.pageBecameInteractive())pageIsComplete()this.pageIsInteractive(),this.stage==PageStage.interactive&&(this.stage=PageStage.complete,this.delegate.pageLoaded())get readyState()return document.readyStateclass 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newHeadSnapshot()return this.newSnapshot.headSnapshotget newElement()return this.newSnapshot.elementmergeHead()this.copyNewHeadStylesheetElements(),this.copyNewHeadScriptElements(),this.removeCurrentHeadProvisionalElements(),this.copyNewHeadProvisionalElements()replaceBody()this.preservingPermanentElements(()=>this.activateNewBody(),this.assignNewBody())get trackedElementsAreIdentical()return this.currentHeadSnapshot.trackedElementSignature==this.newHeadSnapshot.trackedElementSignaturecopyNewHeadStylesheetElements()for(const element of this.newHeadStylesheetElements)document.head.appendChild(element)copyNewHeadScriptElements()for(const element of this.newHeadScriptElements)document.head.appendChild(this.createScriptElement(element))removeCurrentHeadProvisionalElements()for(const element of this.currentHeadProvisionalElements)document.head.removeChild(element)copyNewHeadProvisionalElements()for(const element of 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this.newElement.querySelectorAll("script")class SnapshotCacheconstructor(size)this.keys=[],this.snapshots=,this.size=sizehas(location2)return toCacheKey(location2)in this.snapshotsget(location2)var snapshot;if(this.has(location2))return snapshot=this.read(location2),this.touch(location2),snapshotput(location2,snapshot)return this.write(location2,snapshot),this.touch(location2),snapshotclear()this.snapshots=read(location2)return this.snapshots[toCacheKey(location2)]write(location2,snapshot)this.snapshots[toCacheKey(location2)]=snapshottouch(location2)var location2=toCacheKey(location2),index=this.keys.indexOf(location2);-1setTimeout(()=>resolve(),0))(),snapshot=snapshot.clone(),this.snapshotCache.put(location2,snapshot),snapshot)getCachedSnapshotForLocation(location2)return this.snapshotCache.get(location2)get snapshot()return PageSnapshot.fromElement(this.element)get shouldCacheSnapshot()return this.snapshot.isCacheablefunction extendURLWithDeprecatedProperties(url)Object.defineProperties(url,deprecatedLocationPropertyDescriptors)const deprecatedLocationPropertyDescriptors=absoluteURL:get()return this.toString(),session=new class Sessionconstructor()this.navigator=new Navigator(this),this.history=new History(this),this.view=new PageView(this,document.documentElement),this.adapter=new BrowserAdapter(this),this.pageObserver=new PageObserver(this),this.cacheObserver=new CacheObserver,this.linkClickObserver=new LinkClickObserver(this),this.formSubmitObserver=new FormSubmitObserver(this),this.scrollObserver=new ScrollObserver(this),this.streamObserver=new StreamObserver(this),this.frameRedirector=new FrameRedirector(document.documentElement),this.drive=!0,this.enabled=!0,this.progressBarDelay=500,this.started=!1start()this.starteddisable()this.enabled=!1stop()this.started&&(this.pageObserver.stop(),this.cacheObserver.stop(),this.linkClickObserver.stop(),this.formSubmitObserver.stop(),this.scrollObserver.stop(),this.streamObserver.stop(),this.frameRedirector.stop(),this.history.stop(),this.started=!1)registerAdapter(adapter)this.adapter=adaptervisit(location2,options=)this.navigator.proposeVisit(expandURL(location2),options)connectStreamSource(source)this.streamObserver.connectStreamSource(source)disconnectStreamSource(source)this.streamObserver.disconnectStreamSource(source)renderStreamMessage(message)document.documentElement.appendChild(StreamMessage.wrap(message).fragment)clearCache()this.view.clearSnapshotCache()setProgressBarDelay(delay)this.progressBarDelay=delayget location()return this.history.locationget restorationIdentifier()return this.history.restorationIdentifierhistoryPoppedToLocationWithRestorationIdentifier(location2,restorationIdentifier)this.enabled?this.navigator.startVisit(location2,restorationIdentifier,action:"restore",historyChanged:!0):this.adapter.pageInvalidated()scrollPositionChanged(position)this.history.updateRestorationData(scrollPosition:position)willFollowLinkToLocation(link,location2)return this.elementDriveEnabled(link)&&locationIsVisitable(location2,this.snapshot.rootLocation)&&this.applicationAllowsFollowingLinkToLocation(link,location2)followedLinkToLocation(link,location2)var action=this.getActionForLink(link);this.convertLinkWithMethodClickToFormSubmission(link)convertLinkWithMethodClickToFormSubmission(link)var linkMethod=link.getAttribute("data-turbo-method");if(linkMethod)"undefined",form.hidden=!0,link.hasAttribute("data-turbo-confirm")&&form.setAttribute("data-turbo-confirm",link.getAttribute("data-turbo-confirm"));linkMethod=this.getTargetFrameForLink(link);return linkMethod?(form.setAttribute("data-turbo-frame",linkMethod),form.addEventListener("turbo:submit-start",()=>form.remove())):form.addEventListener("submit",()=>form.remove()),document.body.appendChild(form),dispatch("submit",cancelable:!0,target:form)return!1allowsVisitingLocationWithAction(location2,action)this.applicationAllowsVisitingLocation(location2)visitProposedToLocation(location2,options)extendURLWithDeprecatedProperties(location2),this.adapter.visitProposedToLocation(location2,options)visitStarted(visit2)visitCompleted(visit2)this.notifyApplicationAfterPageLoad(visit2.getTimingMetrics())locationWithActionIsSamePage(location2,action)return this.navigator.locationWithActionIsSamePage(location2,action)visitScrolledToSamePageLocation(oldURL,newURL)this.notifyApplicationAfterVisitingSamePageLocation(oldURL,newURL)willSubmitForm(form,submitter)this.elementDriveEnabled(submitter))&&locationIsVisitable(expandURL(action),this.snapshot.rootLocation)formSubmitted(form,submitter)this.navigator.submitForm(form,submitter)pageBecameInteractive()this.view.lastRenderedLocation=this.location,this.notifyApplicationAfterPageLoad()pageLoaded()this.history.assumeControlOfScrollRestoration()pageWillUnload()this.history.relinquishControlOfScrollRestoration()receivedMessageFromStream(message)this.renderStreamMessage(message)viewWillCacheSnapshot()var _a;null!=(_a=this.navigator.currentVisit)&&_a.silentallowsImmediateRender(element,resume)return!this.notifyApplicationBeforeRender(element,resume).defaultPreventedviewRenderedSnapshot(snapshot,isPreview)this.view.lastRenderedLocation=this.history.location,this.notifyApplicationAfterRender()viewInvalidated()this.adapter.pageInvalidated()frameLoaded(frame)this.notifyApplicationAfterFrameLoad(frame)frameRendered(fetchResponse,frame)this.notifyApplicationAfterFrameRender(fetchResponse,frame)applicationAllowsFollowingLinkToLocation(link,location2)return!this.notifyApplicationAfterClickingLinkToLocation(link,location2).defaultPreventedapplicationAllowsVisitingLocation(location2)return!this.notifyApplicationBeforeVisitingLocation(location2).defaultPreventednotifyApplicationAfterClickingLinkToLocation(link,location2)return dispatch("turbo:click",target:link,detail:url:location2.href,cancelable:!0)notifyApplicationBeforeVisitingLocation(location2)return dispatch("turbo:before-visit",detail:url:location2.href,cancelable:!0)notifyApplicationAfterVisitingLocation(location2,action)return markAsBusy(document.documentElement),dispatch("turbo:visit",detail:url:location2.href,action:action)notifyApplicationBeforeCachingSnapshot()return dispatch("turbo:before-cache")notifyApplicationBeforeRender(newBody,resume)return dispatch("turbo:before-render",detail:newBody:newBody,resume:resume,cancelable:!0)notifyApplicationAfterRender()return dispatch("turbo:render")notifyApplicationAfterPageLoad(timing=)return clearBusyState(document.documentElement),dispatch("turbo:load",detail:url:this.location.href,timing:timing)notifyApplicationAfterVisitingSamePageLocation(oldURL,newURL)dispatchEvent(new HashChangeEvent("hashchange",oldURL:oldURL.toString(),newURL:newURL.toString()))notifyApplicationAfterFrameLoad(frame)return dispatch("turbo:frame-load",target:frame)notifyApplicationAfterFrameRender(fetchResponse,frame)return dispatch("turbo:frame-render",detail:fetchResponse:fetchResponse,target:frame,cancelable:!0)elementDriveEnabled(element)getActionForLink(link)link=link.getAttribute("data-turbo-action");return isAction(link)?link:"advance"getTargetFrameForLink(link)var frame=link.getAttribute("data-turbo-frame");return frameget snapshot()return this.view.snapshot;var prototype=session["navigator"];function start()session.start()function registerAdapter(adapter)session.registerAdapter(adapter)function visit(location2,options)session.visit(location2,options)function connectStreamSource(source)session.connectStreamSource(source)function disconnectStreamSource(source)session.disconnectStreamSource(source)function renderStreamMessage(message)session.renderStreamMessage(message)function clearCache()session.clearCache()function setProgressBarDelay(delay)session.setProgressBarDelay(delay)function setConfirmMethod(confirmMethod)FormSubmission.confirmMethod=confirmMethodvar Turbo=Object.freeze(__proto__:null,navigator:prototype,session:session,PageRenderer:PageRenderer,PageSnapshot:PageSnapshot,start:start,registerAdapter:registerAdapter,visit:visit,connectStreamSource:connectStreamSource,disconnectStreamSource:disconnectStreamSource,renderStreamMessage:renderStreamMessage,clearCache:clearCache,setProgressBarDelay:setProgressBarDelay,setConfirmMethod:setConfirmMethod);class SnapshotSubstitutionconstructor(element)this.visitCachedSnapshot=(element:element2)=>varid,clone=this;null!=(element2=element2.querySelector("#"+id))&&element2.replaceWith(clone),this.clone=element.cloneNode(!0),this.id=element.idfunction getFrameElementById(id)if(null!=id)id=document.getElementById(id);if(id instanceof FrameElement)return idfunction activateElement(element,currentURL)if(element)var src=element.getAttribute("src");if(null!=src&&null!=currentURL&&function urlsAreEqual(left,right)return expandURL(left).href==expandURL(right).href(src,currentURL))throw new Error(`Matching element has a source URL which references itself`);if((element=element.ownerDocument!==document?document.importNode(element,!0):element)instanceof FrameElement)return element.connectedCallback(),element.disconnectedCallback(),elementconst StreamActions=after()this.targetElements.forEach(e=>var _a;return null==(_a=e.parentElement)?void 0:_a.insertBefore(this.templateContent,e.nextSibling)),append()this.removeDuplicateTargetChildren(),this.targetElements.forEach(e=>e.append(this.templateContent)),before()this.targetElements.forEach(e=>var _a;return null==(_a=e.parentElement)?void 0:_a.insertBefore(this.templateContent,e)),prepend()this.removeDuplicateTargetChildren(),this.targetElements.forEach(e=>e.prepend(this.templateContent)),remove()this.targetElements.forEach(e=>e.remove()),replace()this.targetElements.forEach(e=>e.replaceWith(this.templateContent)),update()this.targetElements.forEach(e=>e.innerHTML="",e.append(this.templateContent));class StreamElement extends HTMLElementconnectedCallback()return __async$3(this,null,function*()tryyield this.render()catch(error)console.error(error)finallythis.disconnect())render()return __async$3(this,null,function*()var _a;return null!=(_a=this.renderPromise)?_a:this.renderPromise=__async$3(this,null,function*()this.dispatchEvent(this.beforeRenderEvent)&&(yield nextAnimationFrame(),this.performAction())))disconnect()trythis.remove()catch(_a)removeDuplicateTargetChildren()this.duplicateChildren.forEach(c=>c.remove())get duplicateChildren()var _a,existingChildren=this.targetElements.flatMap(e=>[...e.children]).filter(c=>!!c.id);const newChildrenIds=[...null==(_a=this.templateContent)?void 0:_a.children].filter(c=>!!c.id).map(c=>c.id);return existingChildren.filter(c=>newChildrenIds.includes(c.id))get performAction()if(this.action)var actionFunction=StreamActions[this.action];if(actionFunction)return actionFunction;this.raise("unknown action")this.raise("action attribute is missing")get targetElements()return this.target?this.targetElementsById:this.targets?this.targetElementsByQuery:void this.raise("target or targets attribute is missing")get templateContent()return this.templateElement.content.cloneNode(!0)get templateElement()if(this.firstElementChild instanceof HTMLTemplateElement)return this.firstElementChild;this.raise("first child element must be a
