The Federal Reserve meeting minutes of 4 the July 2023 meeting:
- Uncertainty of U.S. economic outlook remains elevated; future Federal Reserve policy decisions to be driven by the totality of data from the July 25-26 meeting.
- Most participants said inflation risks could require further interest rate hikes.
- A number of participants warned of risks of accidentally tightening policy too much.
- A couple of participants favored holding interest rates steady at the July meeting.
- A number of participants saw economic risks becoming more balanced.
- Most participants saw continued ‘significant’ upside inflation risks.
- Participants said inflation was ‘unacceptably high,’ and more evidence is needed to be confident that price pressures are ebbing.
- Participants said a gradual slowdown in economic activity appeared to be happening.
- Participants still saw below-trend growth and a softer labor market as necessary for restoring economic balance.
- Amid uncertainty about monetary policy lags, participants said rate hikes are working as intended.
- The banking system is ‘sound and resilient,’ but tighter credit conditions are likely to weigh on the economy.
- Staff no longer see the economy entering a mild recession this year and now predict below-trend growth in 2024 and 2025.
- Participants said the labor market is still ‘very tight,’ although signs are emerging that labor demand is in better balance.
