The strongest to the weakest of the major currencies
The NZD is the strongest and the USD is the weakest as the North American session begins. The NZD got a boost from the better China data which showed that growth increased at the fastest pace in 8 months with the manufacturing PMI rising to 52.6 which was the highest level in a decade.
The news sent the USDCNH through its 200 day MA at 0.69127. On Monday, the price tested its 100 day moving average near the 6.99029 level. The high price reached 6.98914.
USDCNH falls below the 200 day MA
Meanwhile for the NZDUSD, it surged above its 200 day MA and ran. Looking at the hourly chart, the price is approaching the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the February high. That level comes in at 0.62855. The price high just reached 0.62748. A swing area between 0.62521 and 0.62688 is now close intraday support (see yellow area in the chart below).
Recall the RBNZ raise rates by 50 basis points back on February 21. The price of the NZDUSD consolidated in a sideways range below the 200 hour MA until breaking lower and below the 100 day MA on Friday. Today, the pair moved above a cluster of MAs including the 100/200 hour MAs and the 200 and 100 day MAs. Bullish.
NZDUSD moves higher
Later today the US PMI data will be released (S&P Global and the ISM data at 9:45 AM ET and 10 AM ET).
The EURUSD is also making a break for it to the upside. The EURUSD is up nearly 1.0% at the start of the US session helped by higher than expected CPI data out of Germany (arrows at 0.8% versus 0.5% expected). The manufacturing PMI data showed Italy and Spain was better and back above 50 level. Germany, France and UK stayed below the 50 level. Nagel had more hawkish comments.
Meanwhile in the UK, BOE Bailey was more neutral in his speech today.
A snapshot of other markets at the start of the North American session shows:
- spot gold is trading up $14.73 or 0.81% at $1841.42.
- Spot silver is up $0.25 or 1.20% at $21.14
- WTI crude oil is trading at $76.49. The private data showed another big building crude stocks:
Private weekly inventory data showed a large building crude
The expectations are for crude stocks to show an increase of about 0.5 million when it is released at 10:30 AM ET.
- Bitcoin is trading at $23,716
In the premarket for US stocks, the major indices are trading higher after declines yesterday:
- Dow Industrial Average up 62.3 points after yesterday’s -232.39 point fall
- S&P index is up 7.1 points after yesterday’s -12.07 point fall
- NASDAQ index is up 36 points after yesterday’s -11.44 point fall
In the US debt market, the yields are mixed with a tilt to more negative yield move. The 2 year is higher, the 30 year is lower.
US yields are mixed
In the European debt market, yields are mostly higher with the UK 10 year bucking the trend (it is lower) after Bailey’s more neutral comments today:
European yields are mostly higher
