FUNDAMENTAL
OVERVIEW
The S&P 500 has been surging
like crazy as traders kept on unwinding the bearish war-led bets amid US-Iran
deal optimism. The US-Iran war has been pushing the market lower on negative
growth expectations and as those expectations now get repriced on the positive
side, the S&P 500 has lots of room to reach new record highs. The playbook
is very similar to April 2025.
Looking ahead, everything
now hinges on US-Iran talks expected to start tomorrow. Trump delivered some
upbeat remarks tonight mentioning that we’re going to be watching an amazing
two days ahead.
If negotiations were to
break down again, we might see a short-term selloff, but as long as the
ceasefire holds, the downside will likely remain limited. On the other hand, a
peace deal might extend the rally into new record highs, although there’s also
a good argument for an initial “sell the fact” type of reaction.
S&P 500
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAME
S&P 500 – daily
On
the daily chart, we can see that
the S&P 500 is now back near the
all-time high. This is where we can expect the sellers to step in with a
defined risk above the all-time high to position for a pullback into the 6,750
support. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break higher to increase
the bullish bets into new record highs.
S&P 500
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAME
S&P 500 – 4 hour
On
the 4 hour chart, we have a
couple of trendlines that could act as support. If we get a pullback, we can
expect the dip-buyers to lean on the trendlines with a defined risk below them
to keep pushing into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a
downside breaks to pile in for new lows.
S&P 500 TECHNICAL
ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAME
S&P 500 – 1 hour
On the 1 hour chart, there’s
not much we can add here as from a risk management perspective, the buyers will
have a better risk to reward setup around the trendlines, while the sellers will
need the price to break below them to open the door for new lows. The red lines
define the average daily range for today.
UPCOMING CATALYSTS
Tomorrow we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures, but the focus remains
on the second round of US-Iran negotiations expected in the next two days.
