Trump posted this on Truth Social:
With a little more time, we can easily OPEN THE HORMUZ STRAIT, TAKE THE OIL, & MAKE A FORTUNE. IT WOULD BE A “GUSHER” FOR THE WORLD??? President DONALD J. TRUMP
Trump initially pitched a 4-6 week timeline for this war and then repeatedly said they were ahead of schedule. Today marks the end of the fifth week and now Trump is talking about “a little more time”. Officials have floated 2-3 more weeks but this sounds like he’s nudging the discourse towards something longer.
The idea of ‘taking the oil’ is the sort of thing that sparks a forever war, as you have to secure all those facilities and fields.
Yesterday, the US also escalated the conflict by bombing Iran’s largest bridge, along with Trump warning that more is coming. Monday at 8 pm ET is his ‘deadline’ for opening Hormuz or bombing Iran’s energy infrastructure. There is also a build up of US ground troops and special forces that numbers in the 10-20K range in the region. That’s not nearly enough for a proper ground invasion or ‘taking the oil’
In terms of the fight, a notable development today was that an F-15 was shot down in Iran.
An ejection seat from the plane has been found by residents in Southern Iran, the whereabouts or status of the pilot and weapons officer is currently unknown, with unconfirmed reports that one or both of the crewmembers have been captured by members of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
A pair of prisoners of war could complicate negotiations but I wouldn’t rule out that the US was able to extract the pilots either.
On the US fiscal side, Trump is out with a budget proposal that would raise military spending by 40%.
S&P 500 futures are down 20 points, or 0.3% in today’s holiday-thinned session.
