Have you noticed USD pairs bouncing around lately?
While economic data releases often drive these movements, political drama can also cause serious dollar volatility.
What’s this drama? 
President Donald Trump intensified his criticism of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Monday, calling him “a major loser” for not cutting interest rates and warning that the U.S. economy could slow unless Powell acts swiftly.
In a post on Truth Social, Trump urged Powell to implement “pre-emptive” rate cuts, arguing that inflation is minimal and that Powell has repeatedly been slow to respond to economic changes.
These remarks are part of a broader escalation in Trump’s public attacks on Powell, expressing strong dissatisfaction with the Fed Chair’s leadership, even suggesting his departure is overdue!
One of the President’s top economic advisors, Kevin Hassett, confirmed that the President’s team is seriously looking into whether they have the legal power to remove Powell from his job. Hassett told reporters they are “studying that matter.”
This public clash goes beyond mere political drama. It directly challenges the long-held principle of Federal Reserve independence and raises questions about the future direction of U.S. monetary policy.
For forex traders, understanding this conflict is important, as it introduces a layer of political risk that could significantly impact the value of the U.S. dollar, and has real consequences for those of us watching charts.
Let’s break down the drama, explain why this matters to forex traders, and outline potential scenarios and their likely effects on the USD.
Meet the Players
Donald Trump
As the current U.S. President, Trump has publicly criticized Powell’s leadership and the Fed’s interest rate decisions. He wants Powell out!
Jerome Powell
He’s the current Chair of the Fed, appointed to lead the central bank. Traditionally, the Fed operates independently from political pressure to make the best economic decisions for the country, not just for the party in power.
The Federal Reserve (Fed): Think of the Fed as the central bank of the United States. Its main job is to manage the country’s money supply and credit conditions to achieve two goals: keep prices stable (control inflation) and maximize employment. A key tool it uses is setting interest rates.
Why the Conflict?
The President actually chose Powell to lead the Fed back in 2017. However, the President has often criticized Powell, especially when the Fed’s decisions didn’t match what the President wanted for the economy or his political goals.
In other words, the core of the disagreement often revolves around interest rates:
Trump’s View: “Lower those rates! Lower! LOWER! Did I mention LOWER?”
He generally favors lower interest rates. Lower rates make borrowing cheaper, which can stimulate economic activity, business investment, and potentially boost the stock market, outcomes often seen as politically favorable.
He has accused Powell of keeping rates too high, hindering economic growth.
The Fed’s View (under Powell): “The data says it’s not yet time to lower rates.”
The Fed adjusts interest rates based on economic data. The Fed had raised rates significantly to combat high inflation. While this can slow down the economy, the Fed argues it’s necessary to prevent prices from spiraling out of control (maintain price stability).
Last week, Powell suggested that the President’s policies on international trade could cause problems. Powell warned that these policies might lead to prices going up (higher inflation) while also causing fewer jobs to be created (slowing job growth).
Such an outcome would make it harder for the Fed to lower rates (which is what Trump wants).
The “Firing” Threat and the Constitutional Question
Trump has stated he wouldn’t reappoint Powell when his term ends and has even floated the idea of trying to fire him before that.
This is where things get complicated:
Fed Independence: The law is designed to protect the Fed Chair from being fired simply for political reasons or policy disagreements. The President can technically remove a Fed Chair “for cause,” but the definition of “cause” is legally murky and generally understood to mean misconduct, not just differing economic views.
There’s also some debate about whether the President could legally remove Powell from his position as Chairman while letting him stay as a regular member of the Fed’s board.
Potential Crisis: If Trump were to attempt to fire Powell and Powell refused to leave (arguing there was no “cause”), it could trigger a major legal and constitutional battle.
It would almost certainly lead to a looong fight in the courts. This uncertainty would likely rattle financial markets.
Trump Determined to Challenge Fed Independence!
The President seems determined to push the boundaries of his authority over the Fed.
Powell’s term as Chairman lasts until May 2026, and he has made it clear he won’t quit willingly. However, the President might try to force him out.
There are a few ways, legally and politically, his administration might try to do this if it decides to increase the pressure.
Both the Federal Reserve and the White House chose not to give official statements on this matter.
Is Trump trying to make the Federal Reserve more like Japan’s central bank? Japan’s central bank (the Bank of Japan, or BOJ) has a formal agreement with the government to work together on shared economic goals. Even though the BOJ is still technically independent, it closely coordinates with the government to support the country’s growth. Trump’s repeated calls for interest rate cuts raise the question: Is he hoping for a similar setup, where the central bank aligns its policies more closely with his government’s growth and trade goals?
Practical Limits: Why Firing Powell Might Not Change Policy
Despite all this talk, removing Powell might not actually change the Fed’s policies immediately.
Decisions about interest rates are made by a committee of 12 members (the Federal Open Market Committee, or FOMC), not just by the Chairman alone.
So, even if Powell were removed, the committee’s overall stance on policy might not change right away.
Why Should Forex Traders Care?
This political tussle isn’t just background noise. It has real potential implications for the forex market, particularly the U.S. dollar:
Uncertainty:
- Financial markets hate uncertainty.
- A fight over the Fed’s leadership injects significant doubt about the future direction of U.S. monetary policy.
- Will interest rates be dictated by economic data OR political pressure? This uncertainty can make investors nervous and potentially lead them to sell USD in favor of perceived safer currencies (like JPY or CHF).
Fed Credibility:
- The Fed’s independence is crucial for its credibility.
- If markets believe the Fed is bending to political will, they might lose confidence in its ability to manage inflation effectively.
- This loss of confidence could weaken the USD long-term.
Interest Rate Expectations:
- The core of the conflict is about interest rates.
- If markets believe Trump might succeed in forcing lower rates (either by replacing Powell or pressuring him), this could weaken the USD (lower rates generally make a currency less attractive to investors seeking yield).
- On the other hand, if Powell holds firm and maintains the Fed’s independence and current policy path, it could potentially support the USD, especially if inflation remains a concern.
Possible Scenarios and USD Impact
Given the fluidity of the situation, forex traders need to consider several potential paths forward and their likely implications for the U.S. dollar.
The following scenarios represent plausible outcomes based on current events:
Scenario 1: Status Quo (Powell Remains, Tension Simmers)
Description:
- Trump continues criticizing Powell, but takes no direct action to remove him before his term ends.
- The Fed, under Powell, continues to assert its independence and bases policy decisions on incoming economic data and its dual mandate.
- Legal ambiguity regarding removal powers might persist, particularly pending the Supreme Court ruling on related cases.
USD Impact: Moderately Negative, High Volatility around statements.
- This scenario likely entails ongoing noise and uncertainty, acting as a persistent moderate drag on the USD.
- While the USD might react more to economic data than the political noise, markets may react negatively to specific instances of harsh rhetoric, leading to bouts of volatility.
Scenario 2: Escalation (Trump Attempts Removal, Legal Battle Ensues)
Description:
- The President takes the unprecedented step of attempting to formally remove Chair Powell, likely citing “cause” based on policy disagreements or other justifications.
- Powell refuses to step down, triggering an immediate legal challenge that rapidly proceeds through the court system, potentially reaching the Supreme Court. This creates a period of intense institutional crisis.
USD Impact: Highly Negative, Extreme Volatility.
- The constitutional uncertainty and questions about Fed credibility would likely spook investors, leading to a sell-off of the USD against major currencies like the euro (EUR), Japanese yen (JPY), and Swiss franc (CHF).
- This would likely provoke severe financial market turmoil. Volatility would reach extreme levels, and the risk of substantial capital flight would be high.
- Expect sharp sell-offs across U.S. asset classes (stocks, bonds) and a significant, rapid decline in the USD as global confidence in U.S. institutions plummets.
- While the ultimate legal outcome is uncertain, the immediate damage to the Fed’s credibility and the perception of US stability would be profound and potentially long-lasting
Scenario 3: De-escalation (Trump Backs Down or Focus Shifts)
Description:
- For various reasons, perhaps due to severe market backlash, advice from within the administration or allies (like potential replacement candidate Kevin Warsh, who reportedly advised against firing Powell ), or a strategic shift in political focus, President Trump significantly reduces or ceases his public attacks on Powell and the Fed.
- The explicit threat of removal recedes.
USD Impact: Neutral to Mildly Positive, Reduced Volatility.
- This could trigger a relief rally in U.S. assets and the USD, as immediate institutional risks diminish. Market volatility would likely decrease.
- However, if the de-escalation is perceived as merely tactical or temporary, some underlying concerns about the Fed’s long-term independence might linger, potentially capping the USD’s recovery.
- Removing the political uncertainty premium could allow the USD to trade more closely based on economic fundamentals. If fundamentals are strong, the USD could rally.
Scenario 4: Powell Replaced (Post-Term or Resignation)
Description:
- Although Chair Powell has stated he will not resign if asked and intends to serve his full term, sustained and intense political pressure could theoretically alter the situation, leading to an earlier departure.
- Alternatively, he might complete his term ending in May 2026 under a cloud of constant criticism.
- In either case, the focus shifts to his successor. President Trump might nominate someone perceived as more aligned with his policy preferences.
USD Impact: Uncertain/Volatile, likely Negative initially, dependent on succession.
- The market reaction would be highly uncertain and likely volatile.
- If Powell’s departure is widely seen as being forced due to political pressure, the initial impact on the USD would likely be very negative, signaling a loss of Fed independence.
- The following impact depends heavily on the perceived credibility and independence of the successor.
- A nominee viewed as highly credible and committed to the Fed’s traditional mandate might eventually stabilize sentiment, but a successor seen as primarily political or lacking independence would likely lead to a persistent negative impact on the USD.
- Finding a successor who is both credible to markets and guaranteed to follow presidential directives on rates might prove difficult.
Scenario 5: The “Shadow Fed”
Description:
- Instead of attempting a direct removal, the administration publicly identifies a preferred successor to Powell well before his term ends in May 2026.
- This “shadow chair” begins publicly commenting on monetary policy, potentially contradicting Powell’s statements and signaling a future policy shift.
- This tactic aims to undermine Powell’s credibility and influence market expectations without triggering a direct legal confrontation over removal powers.
USD Impact: Moderately to Significantly Negative, Increased Volatility and Uncertainty
- This strategy would likely inject significant uncertainty and confusion into markets.
- It could create conflicting signals about the true direction of future monetary policy, potentially leading to increased volatility in USD pairs.
- If the shadow chair is perceived as credible and likely to implement looser policy, it could weaken the USD by raising inflation expectations and lowering yield forecasts.
- However, the effectiveness depends on the market’s perception of both Powell’s resilience and the shadow chair’s influence.
- It could erode Fed credibility over time without the immediate shock of a removal attempt.
Scenario Summary Table:
| Scenario Name | Key Features | Market Volatility Level | Likely USD Impact | Rationale / Key Driver |
| Status Quo | Continued Trump criticism & pressure; No removal attempt; Powell remains; Fed maintains independence stance. | Moderate to High | Moderately Negative | Persistent uncertainty; Lingering institutional risk. |
| Escalation | Trump attempts removal; Powell resists; Legal battle ensues; Fed policy uncertain. | Extreme | Highly Negative | Crisis of confidence; Severe institutional damage. |
| De-escalation | Trump reduces attacks; Removal threat recedes; Fed operates more normally. | Reduced | Neutral to Mildly Positive | Relief; Reduced institutional risk premium. |
| Powell Departs | Powell leaves (resignation/term end under pressure); Focus on successor’s credibility & independence. | High / Uncertain | Uncertain / Likely Negative | Succession uncertainty; Perceived loss of independence. |
| “Shadow Fed” | Admin publicly names preferred successor (“shadow chair”) before Powell’s term ends; Shadow chair publicly comments/critiques policy. | High / Uncertain | Moderately to Significantly Negative | Undermines Powell’s credibility; Creates policy confusion; Erodes Fed independence perception. |
The Bottom Line for Forex Traders
While day-to-day economic data releases remain important, this political conflict over the Federal Reserve’s leadership is a significant risk factor to monitor.
For forex traders, this translates into heightened uncertainty and potential volatility for the U.S. dollar.
Pay attention to:
- Statements from Trump regarding Powell and the Fed.
- Responses from Powell and other Fed officials emphasizing independence.
- Legal analyses or developments regarding the President’s power to remove a Fed Chair.
Increased rhetoric or concrete actions suggesting a challenge to Fed independence could significantly weaken the U.S. dollar.
But any signs that the Fed’s independence will be respected could remove a layer of uncertainty, potentially supporting the currency.
Stay informed, as this political drama could directly impact your USD trades!
