- Prior 5.2%
- Employment change 25k vs 35k expected
- Prior 84k
- Average weekly earnings +3.8% vs +3.6% 3m/y expected
- Prior +3.9%; revised to +4.1%
- Average weekly earnings (ex bonus) +3.6% vs +3.5% 3m/y expected
- Prior +3.8%
- March payrolls change -11k
- Prior 20k; revised to -6k
The standout number is the one in the headline, which sees the jobless rate fall back to its lowest since August last year. It is a bit of an anomaly considering that payrolls data is continuing to decline further, with a negative revision to February as well. ONS continues to put out a caveat though that it is still experiencing data quality issues and advises caution in interpreting the survey numbers.
The claimant count for March does show an increase from 17.1k (revised) in February to a provisional estimate of 26.8k, which likely will be revised further next month.
The good news at least is that there continues to be some improvement in the Labour Force Survey (LFS) response rate. And that is enough to see ONS publish a bulletin update alongside the report today here.
All in all, it’s a bit of a tough one to try and use this one statistical outlier of a data point to try and conclude much about the UK labour market outlook. But from the trend in payrolls data, one can argue that actual conditions are softening but on a gradual basis.
As for wages data, we are seeing some cooling there with real wages also dipping further to the lowest in the three months to June 2023. But with cost-push inflation set to enter into the picture, that will keep the BOE on their toes in terms of balancing their policy outlook for the months ahead.
