Friday, June 26


EUR/USD Forecasts – Prices, Charts, and Analysis

  • US dollar may slip lower into the weekend.
  • US earnings start in earnest today with a handful of banks on tap.

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Get Your Free USD Forecast

The US dollar rallied by over one big figure yesterday after the latest US inflation data release. Core inflation y/y fell from 4.3% to 4.1% in September, as expected, while headline inflation y/y remained unchanged at 3.7%, one-tenth of a percentage point above market estimates of 3.6%.

DailyFX Calendar

Headline US inflation remained unchanged at 3.7% with the shelter costs contributing to around half of the monthly rise while a rise in gasoline prices was also a major contributor to the all items monthly rise. According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, ‘while the major energy component indexes were mixed in September, the energy index rose 1.5 percent over the month.’

Core US inflation fell on the month and slipped to its lowest level since September 2021 and has fallen from a peak of 6.6% over the last 14 months.

US Core Inflation

The miss in headline inflation pushed US bond yields higher but future rate hike expectations only moved by a handful of percentage points. The closely followed CME FedWatch tool still suggests that Fed Funds will remain untouched until mid-2024 when the Fed will start cutting interest rates.

CME FedWatch Tool

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The US dollar had been on the back foot over the week, prior to yesterday’s move, and the likelihood is that Thursday’s move is more a case of overreacting than the belief that the greenback will rally again. One poor data point, a 0.1% miss, does not signal a turnaround in the US dollar’s fortune.

US Dollar Index Daily Price Chart – October 13, 2023

EUR/USD has been a beneficiary of recent US dollar weakness and has twice touched an area of prior resistance we indicated on the daily chart around 1.0635. The pair now trades around 1.0550 and is nearing an old horizontal support level at 1.0516, and this needs to hold otherwise the pair is likely to attempt to break big-figure support at 1.05 again.

EUR/USD Daily Price Chart – October 13, 2023

While the recent US dollar move has provided fx traders with a much-needed boost of volatility, US Q3 earnings start in earnest with a clutch of US banks reporting before the US stock market opens. Today BlackRock (BLK), Citigroup (CITI), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), and Wells Fargo (WFC) open their books and their performance over the last three months may give more of a clue to the health of the US economy. A boost in pre-weekend volatility is likely.

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What is your view on the US Dollar – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1.

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BrowserAdapter{constructor(session2)this.progressBar=new ProgressBar,this.showProgressBar=()=>this.progressBar.show(),this.session=session2visitProposedToLocation(location2,options)visitStarted(visit2)this.location=visit2.location,visit2.loadCachedSnapshot(),visit2.issueRequest(),visit2.goToSamePageAnchor()visitRequestStarted(visit2)visitRequestCompleted(visit2)visit2.loadResponse()visitRequestFailedWithStatusCode(visit2,statusCode)switch(statusCode)case SystemStatusCode.networkFailure:case SystemStatusCode.timeoutFailure:case SystemStatusCode.contentTypeMismatch:return this.reload(reason:"request_failed",context:statusCode:statusCode);default:return 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elements=document.querySelectorAll(this.deprecatedSelector);return elements.length&&console.warn(`The $this.deprecatedSelector selector is deprecated and will be removed in a future version. 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_a;this.previousScrollRestorationrelinquishControlOfScrollRestoration()this.previousScrollRestoration&&(history.scrollRestoration=this.previousScrollRestoration,delete this.previousScrollRestoration)shouldHandlePopState()return this.pageIsLoaded()pageIsLoaded()class Navigator{constructor(delegate)this.delegate=delegateproposeVisit(location2,options=)this.delegate.allowsVisitingLocationWithAction(location2,options.action)&&(locationIsVisitable(location2,this.view.snapshot.rootLocation)?this.delegate.visitProposedToLocation(location2,options):window.location.href=location2.toString())startVisit(locatable,restorationIdentifier,options=)this.stop(),this.currentVisit=new Visit(this,expandURL(locatable),restorationIdentifier,Object.assign(referrer:this.location,options)),this.currentVisit.start()submitForm(form,submitter)this.stop(),this.formSubmission=new FormSubmission(this,form,submitter,!0),this.formSubmission.start()stop()this.formSubmission&&(this.formSubmission.stop(),delete this.formSubmission),this.currentVisit&&(this.currentVisit.cancel(),delete this.currentVisit)get adapter()return this.delegate.adapterget view()return this.delegate.viewget history()return this.delegate.historyformSubmissionStarted(formSubmission)"function"==typeof this.adapter.formSubmissionStarted&&this.adapter.formSubmissionStarted(formSubmission)formSubmissionSucceededWithResponse(formSubmission,fetchResponse)return __async$3(this,null,function*())formSubmissionFailedWithResponse(formSubmission,fetchResponse)return __async$3(this,null,function*()var responseHTML=yield fetchResponse.responseHTML;responseHTML&&(responseHTML=PageSnapshot.fromHTMLString(responseHTML),fetchResponse.serverError?yield this.view.renderError(responseHTML,this.currentVisit):yield 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PageObserverconstructor(delegate)this.stage=PageStage.initial,this.started=!1,this.interpretReadyState=()=>var readyState=this["readyState"];"interactive"==readyState?this.pageIsInteractive():"complete"==readyState&&this.pageIsComplete(),this.pageWillUnload=()=>this.delegate.pageWillUnload(),this.delegate=delegatestart()this.startedstop()this.started&&(document.removeEventListener("readystatechange",this.interpretReadyState,!1),removeEventListener("pagehide",this.pageWillUnload,!1),this.started=!1)pageIsInteractive()this.stage==PageStage.loading&&(this.stage=PageStage.interactive,this.delegate.pageBecameInteractive())pageIsComplete()this.pageIsInteractive(),this.stage==PageStage.interactive&&(this.stage=PageStage.complete,this.delegate.pageLoaded())get readyState()return document.readyStateclass ScrollObserverconstructor(delegate)this.started=!1,this.onScroll=()=>this.updatePosition(x:window.pageXOffset,y:window.pageYOffset),this.delegate=delegatestart()(addEventListener("scroll",this.onScroll,!1),this.onScroll(),this.started=!0)stop()this.started&&(removeEventListener("scroll",this.onScroll,!1),this.started=!1)updatePosition(position)this.delegate.scrollPositionChanged(position)class StreamMessageRenderer{render(fragment)Bardo.preservingPermanentElements(this,function getPermanentElementMapForFragment(fragment)var permanentElementsInDocument=queryPermanentElementsAll(document.documentElement),permanentElementMap=;for(const permanentElementInDocument of permanentElementsInDocument)var id=permanentElementInDocument["id"];for(const streamElement of fragment.querySelectorAll("turbo-stream"))var elementInStream=getPermanentElementById(streamElement.templateElement.content,id);elementInStream&&(permanentElementMap[id]=[permanentElementInDocument,elementInStream])return 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__async$3(this,null,function*()this.replaceHeadAndBody(),this.activateScriptElements())replaceHeadAndBody()vardocumentElement,head=document;documentElement.replaceChild(this.newHead,head),this.renderElement(this.currentElement,this.newElement)activateScriptElements()for(const replaceableElement of this.scriptElements)var element,parentNode=replaceableElement.parentNode;parentNode&&(element=activateScriptElement(replaceableElement),parentNode.replaceChild(element,replaceableElement))get newHead()return this.newSnapshot.headSnapshot.elementget scriptElements()return document.documentElement.querySelectorAll("script")class PageRenderer extends Renderer{static renderElement(currentElement,newElement)document.body&&newElement instanceof HTMLBodyElement?document.body.replaceWith(newElement):document.documentElement.appendChild(newElement)get shouldRender()return this.newSnapshot.isVisitable&&this.trackedElementsAreIdenticalget reloadReason()return this.newSnapshot.isVisitable?this.trackedElementsAreIdentical?void 0:reason:"tracked_element_mismatch":reason:"turbo_visit_control_is_reload"prepareToRender()return __async$3(this,null,function*()yield this.mergeHead())render()return __async$3(this,null,function*()this.willRender&&(yield this.replaceBody()))finishRendering()get currentHeadSnapshot()return this.currentSnapshot.headSnapshotget newHeadSnapshot()return this.newSnapshot.headSnapshotget newElement()return this.newSnapshot.elementmergeHead()return __async$3(this,null,function*()var mergedHeadElements=this.mergeProvisionalElements(),newStylesheetElements=this.copyNewHeadStylesheetElements();this.copyNewHeadScriptElements(),yield mergedHeadElements,yield newStylesheetElements)replaceBody()return __async$3(this,null,function*()yield this.preservingPermanentElements(()=>__async$3(this,null,function*()this.activateNewBody(),yield this.assignNewBody())))get trackedElementsAreIdentical()return this.currentHeadSnapshot.trackedElementSignature==this.newHeadSnapshot.trackedElementSignaturecopyNewHeadStylesheetElements(){return __async$3(this,null,function*()var loadingElements=[];for(const element of this.newHeadStylesheetElements)loadingElements.push(function waitForLoad(element,timeoutInMilliseconds=2e3)return new Promise(resolve=>const onComplete=()=>element.removeEventListener("error",onComplete),element.removeEventListener("load",onComplete),resolve();element.addEventListener("load",onComplete,once:!0),element.addEventListener("error",onComplete,once:!0),setTimeout(resolve,timeoutInMilliseconds))(element)),document.head.appendChild(element);yield Promise.all(loadingElements))}copyNewHeadScriptElements()for(const element of this.newHeadScriptElements)document.head.appendChild(activateScriptElement(element))mergeProvisionalElements()return __async$3(this,null,function*()document.head.removeChild(element);for(const element of newHeadElements)document.head.appendChild(element))isCurrentElementInElementList(element,elementList)for(var[index,newElement]of elementList.entries())if("TITLE"==element.tagName)if("TITLE"!=newElement.tagName)continue;if(element.innerHTML==newElement.innerHTML)return elementList.splice(index,1),!0if(newElement.isEqualNode(element))return elementList.splice(index,1),!0return!1removeCurrentHeadProvisionalElements()for(const element of this.currentHeadProvisionalElements)document.head.removeChild(element)copyNewHeadProvisionalElements()for(const element of this.newHeadProvisionalElements)document.head.appendChild(element)activateNewBody()document.adoptNode(this.newElement),this.activateNewBodyScriptElements()activateNewBodyScriptElements()for(const inertScriptElement of this.newBodyScriptElements)var activatedScriptElement=activateScriptElement(inertScriptElement);inertScriptElement.replaceWith(activatedScriptElement)assignNewBody()return __async$3(this,null,function*()yield this.renderElement(this.currentElement,this.newElement))get newHeadStylesheetElements()return this.newHeadSnapshot.getStylesheetElementsNotInSnapshot(this.currentHeadSnapshot)get newHeadScriptElements()return this.newHeadSnapshot.getScriptElementsNotInSnapshot(this.currentHeadSnapshot)get currentHeadProvisionalElements()return this.currentHeadSnapshot.provisionalElementsget newHeadProvisionalElements()return this.newHeadSnapshot.provisionalElementsget newBodyScriptElements()return this.newElement.querySelectorAll("script")}class SnapshotCacheconstructor(size)this.keys=[],this.snapshots=,this.size=sizehas(location2)return toCacheKey(location2)in this.snapshotsget(location2)var snapshot;if(this.has(location2))return snapshot=this.read(location2),this.touch(location2),snapshotput(location2,snapshot)return this.write(location2,snapshot),this.touch(location2),snapshotclear()this.snapshots=read(location2)return this.snapshots[toCacheKey(location2)]write(location2,snapshot)this.snapshots[toCacheKey(location2)]=snapshottouch(location2)var location2=toCacheKey(location2),index=this.keys.indexOf(location2);-1setTimeout(()=>resolve(),0))(),snapshot=snapshot.clone(),this.snapshotCache.put(location2,snapshot),snapshot)getCachedSnapshotForLocation(location2)return this.snapshotCache.get(location2)get snapshot()return PageSnapshot.fromElement(this.element)class Preloader{constructor(delegate)this.selector="a[data-turbo-preload]",this.delegate=delegateget snapshotCache()return this.delegate.navigator.view.snapshotCachestart()if("loading"===document.readyState)return document.addEventListener("DOMContentLoaded",()=>this.preloadOnLoadLinksForView(document.body));this.preloadOnLoadLinksForView(document.body)preloadOnLoadLinksForView(element)for(const link of element.querySelectorAll(this.selector))this.preloadURL(link)preloadURL(link){return __async$3(this,null,function*()var location2=new URL(link.href);if(!this.snapshotCache.has(location2))tryvar responseText=yield(yield fetch(location2.toString(),headers:"VND.PREFETCH":"true",Accept:"text/html")).text(),snapshot=PageSnapshot.fromHTMLString(responseText);this.snapshotCache.put(location2,snapshot)catch(_))}}function extendURLWithDeprecatedProperties(url)Object.defineProperties(url,deprecatedLocationPropertyDescriptors)const deprecatedLocationPropertyDescriptors=absoluteURL:get()return this.toString();const StreamActions=after()this.targetElements.forEach(e=>var _a;return null==(_a=e.parentElement)?void 0:_a.insertBefore(this.templateContent,e.nextSibling)),append()this.removeDuplicateTargetChildren(),this.targetElements.forEach(e=>e.append(this.templateContent)),before()this.targetElements.forEach(e=>var _a;return null==(_a=e.parentElement)?void 0:_a.insertBefore(this.templateContent,e)),prepend()this.removeDuplicateTargetChildren(),this.targetElements.forEach(e=>e.prepend(this.templateContent)),remove()this.targetElements.forEach(e=>e.remove()),replace()this.targetElements.forEach(e=>e.replaceWith(this.templateContent)),update()this.targetElements.forEach(targetElement=>targetElement.innerHTML="",targetElement.append(this.templateContent)),session=new class Sessionconstructor()this.navigator=new Navigator(this),this.history=new History(this),this.preloader=new Preloader(this),this.view=new PageView(this,document.documentElement),this.adapter=new BrowserAdapter(this),this.pageObserver=new PageObserver(this),this.cacheObserver=new CacheObserver,this.linkClickObserver=new LinkClickObserver(this,window),this.formSubmitObserver=new FormSubmitObserver(this,document),this.scrollObserver=new ScrollObserver(this),this.streamObserver=new StreamObserver(this),this.formLinkClickObserver=new FormLinkClickObserver(this,document.documentElement),this.frameRedirector=new FrameRedirector(this,document.documentElement),this.streamMessageRenderer=new StreamMessageRenderer,this.drive=!0,this.enabled=!0,this.progressBarDelay=500,this.started=!1,this.formMode="on"start()(this.pageObserver.start(),this.cacheObserver.start(),this.formLinkClickObserver.start(),this.linkClickObserver.start(),this.formSubmitObserver.start(),this.scrollObserver.start(),this.streamObserver.start(),this.frameRedirector.start(),this.history.start(),this.preloader.start(),this.started=!0,this.enabled=!0)disable()this.enabled=!1stop()this.started&&(this.pageObserver.stop(),this.cacheObserver.stop(),this.formLinkClickObserver.stop(),this.linkClickObserver.stop(),this.formSubmitObserver.stop(),this.scrollObserver.stop(),this.streamObserver.stop(),this.frameRedirector.stop(),this.history.stop(),this.started=!1)registerAdapter(adapter)this.adapter=adaptervisit(location2,options=)var frameElement=options.frame?document.getElementById(options.frame):null;frameElement instanceof FrameElement?(frameElement.src=location2.toString(),frameElement.loaded):this.navigator.proposeVisit(expandURL(location2),options)connectStreamSource(source)this.streamObserver.connectStreamSource(source)disconnectStreamSource(source)this.streamObserver.disconnectStreamSource(source)renderStreamMessage(message)this.streamMessageRenderer.render(StreamMessage.wrap(message))clearCache()this.view.clearSnapshotCache()setProgressBarDelay(delay)this.progressBarDelay=delaysetFormMode(mode)this.formMode=modeget location()return this.history.locationget restorationIdentifier()return this.history.restorationIdentifierhistoryPoppedToLocationWithRestorationIdentifier(location2,restorationIdentifier)this.enabled?this.navigator.startVisit(location2,restorationIdentifier,action:"restore",historyChanged:!0):this.adapter.pageInvalidated(reason:"turbo_disabled")scrollPositionChanged(position)this.history.updateRestorationData(scrollPosition:position)willSubmitFormLinkToLocation(link,location2)return this.elementIsNavigatable(link)&&locationIsVisitable(location2,this.snapshot.rootLocation)submittedFormLinkToLocation()willFollowLinkToLocation(link,location2,event)return this.elementIsNavigatable(link)&&locationIsVisitable(location2,this.snapshot.rootLocation)&&this.applicationAllowsFollowingLinkToLocation(link,location2,event)followedLinkToLocation(link,location2)var action=this.getActionForLink(link),link=link.hasAttribute("data-turbo-stream");this.visit(location2.href,action:action,acceptsStreamResponse:link)allowsVisitingLocationWithAction(location2,action)visitProposedToLocation(location2,options)extendURLWithDeprecatedProperties(location2),this.adapter.visitProposedToLocation(location2,options)visitStarted(visit2)this.notifyApplicationAfterVisitingLocation(visit2.location,visit2.action)visitCompleted(visit2)clearBusyState(document.documentElement),this.notifyApplicationAfterPageLoad(visit2.getTimingMetrics())locationWithActionIsSamePage(location2,action)return this.navigator.locationWithActionIsSamePage(location2,action)visitScrolledToSamePageLocation(oldURL,newURL)this.notifyApplicationAfterVisitingSamePageLocation(oldURL,newURL)willSubmitForm(form,submitter)var action=getAction(form,submitter);return this.submissionIsNavigatable(form,submitter)&&locationIsVisitable(expandURL(action),this.snapshot.rootLocation)formSubmitted(form,submitter)this.navigator.submitForm(form,submitter)pageBecameInteractive()this.view.lastRenderedLocation=this.location,this.notifyApplicationAfterPageLoad()pageLoaded()this.history.assumeControlOfScrollRestoration()pageWillUnload()this.history.relinquishControlOfScrollRestoration()receivedMessageFromStream(message)this.renderStreamMessage(message)viewWillCacheSnapshot()var _a;null!=(_a=this.navigator.currentVisit)&&_a.silentallowsImmediateRender(element,options)vardefaultPrevented:element,detail:render:options=this.notifyApplicationBeforeRender(element,options);return this.view.renderer&&options&&(this.view.renderer.renderElement=options),!elementviewRenderedSnapshot(_snapshot,_isPreview)this.view.lastRenderedLocation=this.history.location,this.notifyApplicationAfterRender()preloadOnLoadLinksForView(element)this.preloader.preloadOnLoadLinksForView(element)viewInvalidated(reason)this.adapter.pageInvalidated(reason)frameLoaded(frame)this.notifyApplicationAfterFrameLoad(frame)frameRendered(fetchResponse,frame)this.notifyApplicationAfterFrameRender(fetchResponse,frame)applicationAllowsFollowingLinkToLocation(link,location2,ev)return!this.notifyApplicationAfterClickingLinkToLocation(link,location2,ev).defaultPreventedapplicationAllowsVisitingLocation(location2)return!this.notifyApplicationBeforeVisitingLocation(location2).defaultPreventednotifyApplicationAfterClickingLinkToLocation(link,location2,event)return dispatch("turbo:click",target:link,detail:url:location2.href,originalEvent:event,cancelable:!0)notifyApplicationBeforeVisitingLocation(location2)return dispatch("turbo:before-visit",detail:url:location2.href,cancelable:!0)notifyApplicationAfterVisitingLocation(location2,action)return dispatch("turbo:visit",detail:url:location2.href,action:action)notifyApplicationBeforeCachingSnapshot()return dispatch("turbo:before-cache")notifyApplicationBeforeRender(newBody,options)return dispatch("turbo:before-render",detail:Object.assign(newBody:newBody,options),cancelable:!0)notifyApplicationAfterRender()return dispatch("turbo:render")notifyApplicationAfterPageLoad(timing=)return dispatch("turbo:load",detail:url:this.location.href,timing:timing)notifyApplicationAfterVisitingSamePageLocation(oldURL,newURL)dispatchEvent(new HashChangeEvent("hashchange",oldURL:oldURL.toString(),newURL:newURL.toString()))notifyApplicationAfterFrameLoad(frame)return dispatch("turbo:frame-load",target:frame)notifyApplicationAfterFrameRender(fetchResponse,frame)return dispatch("turbo:frame-render",detail:fetchResponse:fetchResponse,target:frame,cancelable:!0)submissionIsNavigatable(form,submitter)this.elementIsNavigatable(submitter),"optin"==this.formMode?submitter&&null!=form.closest('[data-turbo="true"]'):submitter&&this.elementIsNavigatable(form))elementIsNavigatable(element)getActionForLink(link)get snapshot()return this.view.snapshot;var prototype=new class Cacheconstructor(session2)this.session=session2clear()this.session.clearCache()resetCacheControl()this.setCacheControl("")exemptPageFromCache()this.setCacheControl("no-cache")exemptPageFromPreview()this.setCacheControl("no-preview")setCacheControl(value)!function setMetaContent(name,content)("turbo-cache-control",value)(session),navigator$1=session["navigator"];function start()session.start()function registerAdapter(adapter)session.registerAdapter(adapter)function visit(location2,options)session.visit(location2,options)function connectStreamSource(source)session.connectStreamSource(source)function disconnectStreamSource(source)session.disconnectStreamSource(source)function renderStreamMessage(message)session.renderStreamMessage(message)function clearCache()console.warn("Please replace `Turbo.clearCache()` with `Turbo.cache.clear()`. The top-level function is deprecated and will be removed in a future version of Turbo.`"),session.clearCache()function setProgressBarDelay(delay)session.setProgressBarDelay(delay)function setConfirmMethod(confirmMethod)FormSubmission.confirmMethod=confirmMethodfunction setFormMode(mode)session.setFormMode(mode)var Turbo=Object.freeze(__proto__:null,navigator:navigator$1,session:session,cache:prototype,PageRenderer:PageRenderer,PageSnapshot:PageSnapshot,FrameRenderer:FrameRenderer,start:start,registerAdapter:registerAdapter,visit:visit,connectStreamSource:connectStreamSource,disconnectStreamSource:disconnectStreamSource,renderStreamMessage:renderStreamMessage,clearCache:clearCache,setProgressBarDelay:setProgressBarDelay,setConfirmMethod:setConfirmMethod,setFormMode:setFormMode,StreamActions:StreamActions);class TurboFrameMissingError extends Errorfunction getFrameElementById(id)if(null!=id)id=document.getElementById(id);if(id instanceof FrameElement)return idfunction activateElement(element,currentURL)if(element)var src=element.getAttribute("src");if(null!=src&&null!=currentURL&&function urlsAreEqual(left,right)return expandURL(left).href==expandURL(right).href(src,currentURL))throw new Error(`Matching element has a source URL which references itself`);if((element=element.ownerDocument!==document?document.importNode(element,!0):element)instanceof FrameElement)return element.connectedCallback(),element.disconnectedCallback(),elementclass StreamElement extends HTMLElementstatic renderElement(newElement)return __async$3(this,null,function*()yield newElement.performAction())connectedCallback()return __async$3(this,null,function*()tryyield this.render()catch(error)console.error(error)finallythis.disconnect())render()return __async$3(this,null,function*()var _a;return null!=(_a=this.renderPromise)?_a:this.renderPromise=__async$3(this,null,function*()var event=this.beforeRenderEvent;this.dispatchEvent(event)&&(yield nextAnimationFrame(),yield event.detail.render(this))))disconnect()trythis.remove()catch(_a)removeDuplicateTargetChildren()this.duplicateChildren.forEach(c=>c.remove())get duplicateChildren()var _a,existingChildren=this.targetElements.flatMap(e=>[...e.children]).filter(c=>!!c.id);const newChildrenIds=[...(null==(_a=this.templateContent)?void 0:_a.children)get performAction()if(this.action)var actionFunction=StreamActions[this.action];if(actionFunction)return actionFunction;this.raise("unknown action")this.raise("action attribute is missing")get targetElements()return this.target?this.targetElementsById:this.targets?this.targetElementsByQuery:void this.raise("target or targets attribute is missing")get templateContent()return this.templateElement.content.cloneNode(!0)get templateElement()var template;return null===this.firstElementChild?(template=this.ownerDocument.createElement("template"),this.appendChild(template),template):this.firstElementChild instanceof HTMLTemplateElement?this.firstElementChild:void this.raise("first child element must be a

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