Thursday, March 26


US Dollar, DXY, S&P 500, Treasury Yields, ADP Data – Asia Pacific Market Open

  • US Dollar and Treasury yields soar, S&P 500 sinks on ADP report
  • The rosy data sets a high expectation for Friday’s non-farm payrolls
  • The DXY Dollar Index is increasingly showing signs of reversing

Recommended by Daniel Dubrovsky

Get Your Free USD Forecast

Asia-Pacific Market Briefing – ADP Employment Report Sets High Expectations for NFPs

The US Dollar outperformed its major counterparts on Thursday, with the DXY Dollar Index gaining 0.85 percent. If the currency maintains its position, the US Dollar will be heading for its best week since the middle of September. Meanwhile, the Australian Dollar underperformed. This meant AUD/USD sank 1.35% in the worst single-day performance since December 15th.

The catalyst for the currency’s rise could be traced to December’s ADP employment report. Private US businesses reportedly added about 235k jobs, much higher than the 150k consensus. This painted a rosy picture for the jobs market ahead of the highly anticipated non-farm payrolls report due over the remaining 24 hours.

Looking at the daily chart below, the US Dollar can be seen soaring alongside front-end government bond yields. This is a sign that markets likely priced out some dovish expectations in the Federal Reserve towards the latter half of this year. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 can be seen sinking alongside a rising US Dollar as markets turned to risk aversion.

US Dollar Soars With Bond Yields on ADP Data as S&P 500 Sinks

Chart Created in TradingView

Friday’s Asia Pacific Trading Session – Eyes on Sentiment

The disappointing Wall Street trading session could set a sour tone for markets during Friday’s Asia-Pacific trading hours. That is leaving indices like the Nikkei 225 and ASX 200 vulnerable. But, keep in mind that until NFPs are behind us, some traders may be reluctant to take major bets, opening the door to choppy ranges in the short term. Still, volatility risk could continue to work against the sentiment-sensitive Australian Dollar.

US Dollar Technical Analysis

The DXY US Dollar Index closed at its highest since early December as prices moved further above the critical 103.93 – 104.33 support zone. This also meant that the currency confirmed a breakout above the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), exposing the 50-day equivalent. Key resistance seems to be the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 106.12. Meanwhile, positive RSI divergence has been showing that downside momentum was fading. That can at times precede a turn higher.

Recommended by Daniel Dubrovsky

Get Your Free Top Trading Opportunities Forecast

DXY Daily Chart

Chart Created in TradingView

— Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Senior Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Daniel, follow him on Twitter:@ddubrovskyFX

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newHeadSnapshot()return this.newSnapshot.headSnapshotget newElement()return this.newSnapshot.elementmergeHead()this.copyNewHeadStylesheetElements(),this.copyNewHeadScriptElements(),this.removeCurrentHeadProvisionalElements(),this.copyNewHeadProvisionalElements()replaceBody()this.preservingPermanentElements(()=>this.activateNewBody(),this.assignNewBody())get trackedElementsAreIdentical()return this.currentHeadSnapshot.trackedElementSignature==this.newHeadSnapshot.trackedElementSignaturecopyNewHeadStylesheetElements()for(const element of this.newHeadStylesheetElements)document.head.appendChild(element)copyNewHeadScriptElements()for(const element of this.newHeadScriptElements)document.head.appendChild(this.createScriptElement(element))removeCurrentHeadProvisionalElements()for(const element of this.currentHeadProvisionalElements)document.head.removeChild(element)copyNewHeadProvisionalElements()for(const element of this.newHeadProvisionalElements)document.head.appendChild(element)activateNewBody()document.adoptNode(this.newElement),this.activateNewBodyScriptElements()activateNewBodyScriptElements()for(const inertScriptElement of this.newBodyScriptElements)var activatedScriptElement=this.createScriptElement(inertScriptElement);inertScriptElement.replaceWith(activatedScriptElement)assignNewBody()document.body&&this.newElement instanceof HTMLBodyElement?document.body.replaceWith(this.newElement):document.documentElement.appendChild(this.newElement)get newHeadStylesheetElements()return this.newHeadSnapshot.getStylesheetElementsNotInSnapshot(this.currentHeadSnapshot)get newHeadScriptElements()return this.newHeadSnapshot.getScriptElementsNotInSnapshot(this.currentHeadSnapshot)get currentHeadProvisionalElements()return this.currentHeadSnapshot.provisionalElementsget newHeadProvisionalElements()return this.newHeadSnapshot.provisionalElementsget newBodyScriptElements()return this.newElement.querySelectorAll("script")class SnapshotCacheconstructor(size)this.keys=[],this.snapshots=,this.size=sizehas(location2)return toCacheKey(location2)in this.snapshotsget(location2)var snapshot;if(this.has(location2))return snapshot=this.read(location2),this.touch(location2),snapshotput(location2,snapshot)return this.write(location2,snapshot),this.touch(location2),snapshotclear()this.snapshots=read(location2)return this.snapshots[toCacheKey(location2)]write(location2,snapshot)this.snapshots[toCacheKey(location2)]=snapshottouch(location2)var location2=toCacheKey(location2),index=this.keys.indexOf(location2);-1setTimeout(()=>resolve(),0))(),snapshot=snapshot.clone(),this.snapshotCache.put(location2,snapshot),snapshot)getCachedSnapshotForLocation(location2)return this.snapshotCache.get(location2)get snapshot()return PageSnapshot.fromElement(this.element)get shouldCacheSnapshot()return this.snapshot.isCacheablefunction extendURLWithDeprecatedProperties(url)Object.defineProperties(url,deprecatedLocationPropertyDescriptors)const deprecatedLocationPropertyDescriptors=absoluteURL:get()return this.toString(),session=new class Sessionconstructor()this.navigator=new Navigator(this),this.history=new History(this),this.view=new PageView(this,document.documentElement),this.adapter=new BrowserAdapter(this),this.pageObserver=new PageObserver(this),this.cacheObserver=new CacheObserver,this.linkClickObserver=new LinkClickObserver(this),this.formSubmitObserver=new FormSubmitObserver(this),this.scrollObserver=new ScrollObserver(this),this.streamObserver=new StreamObserver(this),this.frameRedirector=new FrameRedirector(document.documentElement),this.drive=!0,this.enabled=!0,this.progressBarDelay=500,this.started=!1start()this.starteddisable()this.enabled=!1stop()this.started&&(this.pageObserver.stop(),this.cacheObserver.stop(),this.linkClickObserver.stop(),this.formSubmitObserver.stop(),this.scrollObserver.stop(),this.streamObserver.stop(),this.frameRedirector.stop(),this.history.stop(),this.started=!1)registerAdapter(adapter)this.adapter=adaptervisit(location2,options=)this.navigator.proposeVisit(expandURL(location2),options)connectStreamSource(source)this.streamObserver.connectStreamSource(source)disconnectStreamSource(source)this.streamObserver.disconnectStreamSource(source)renderStreamMessage(message)document.documentElement.appendChild(StreamMessage.wrap(message).fragment)clearCache()this.view.clearSnapshotCache()setProgressBarDelay(delay)this.progressBarDelay=delayget location()return this.history.locationget restorationIdentifier()return this.history.restorationIdentifierhistoryPoppedToLocationWithRestorationIdentifier(location2,restorationIdentifier)this.enabled?this.navigator.startVisit(location2,restorationIdentifier,action:"restore",historyChanged:!0):this.adapter.pageInvalidated()scrollPositionChanged(position)this.history.updateRestorationData(scrollPosition:position)willFollowLinkToLocation(link,location2)return this.elementDriveEnabled(link)&&locationIsVisitable(location2,this.snapshot.rootLocation)&&this.applicationAllowsFollowingLinkToLocation(link,location2)followedLinkToLocation(link,location2)convertLinkWithMethodClickToFormSubmission(link)var linkMethod=link.getAttribute("data-turbo-method");if(linkMethod)"undefined",form.hidden=!0,link.hasAttribute("data-turbo-confirm")&&form.setAttribute("data-turbo-confirm",link.getAttribute("data-turbo-confirm"));linkMethod=this.getTargetFrameForLink(link);return linkMethod?(form.setAttribute("data-turbo-frame",linkMethod),form.addEventListener("turbo:submit-start",()=>form.remove())):form.addEventListener("submit",()=>form.remove()),document.body.appendChild(form),dispatch("submit",cancelable:!0,target:form)return!1allowsVisitingLocationWithAction(location2,action)visitProposedToLocation(location2,options)extendURLWithDeprecatedProperties(location2),this.adapter.visitProposedToLocation(location2,options)visitStarted(visit2)extendURLWithDeprecatedProperties(visit2.location),visit2.silentvisitCompleted(visit2)this.notifyApplicationAfterPageLoad(visit2.getTimingMetrics())locationWithActionIsSamePage(location2,action)return this.navigator.locationWithActionIsSamePage(location2,action)visitScrolledToSamePageLocation(oldURL,newURL)this.notifyApplicationAfterVisitingSamePageLocation(oldURL,newURL)willSubmitForm(form,submitter)var action=getAction(form,submitter);return this.elementDriveEnabled(form)&&(!submitterformSubmitted(form,submitter)this.navigator.submitForm(form,submitter)pageBecameInteractive()this.view.lastRenderedLocation=this.location,this.notifyApplicationAfterPageLoad()pageLoaded()this.history.assumeControlOfScrollRestoration()pageWillUnload()this.history.relinquishControlOfScrollRestoration()receivedMessageFromStream(message)this.renderStreamMessage(message)viewWillCacheSnapshot()this.notifyApplicationBeforeCachingSnapshot()allowsImmediateRender(element,resume)return!this.notifyApplicationBeforeRender(element,resume).defaultPreventedviewRenderedSnapshot(snapshot,isPreview)this.view.lastRenderedLocation=this.history.location,this.notifyApplicationAfterRender()viewInvalidated()this.adapter.pageInvalidated()frameLoaded(frame)this.notifyApplicationAfterFrameLoad(frame)frameRendered(fetchResponse,frame)this.notifyApplicationAfterFrameRender(fetchResponse,frame)applicationAllowsFollowingLinkToLocation(link,location2)return!this.notifyApplicationAfterClickingLinkToLocation(link,location2).defaultPreventedapplicationAllowsVisitingLocation(location2)return!this.notifyApplicationBeforeVisitingLocation(location2).defaultPreventednotifyApplicationAfterClickingLinkToLocation(link,location2)return dispatch("turbo:click",target:link,detail:url:location2.href,cancelable:!0)notifyApplicationBeforeVisitingLocation(location2)return dispatch("turbo:before-visit",detail:url:location2.href,cancelable:!0)notifyApplicationAfterVisitingLocation(location2,action)return markAsBusy(document.documentElement),dispatch("turbo:visit",detail:url:location2.href,action:action)notifyApplicationBeforeCachingSnapshot()return dispatch("turbo:before-cache")notifyApplicationBeforeRender(newBody,resume)return dispatch("turbo:before-render",detail:newBody:newBody,resume:resume,cancelable:!0)notifyApplicationAfterRender()return dispatch("turbo:render")notifyApplicationAfterPageLoad(timing=)return clearBusyState(document.documentElement),dispatch("turbo:load",detail:url:this.location.href,timing:timing)notifyApplicationAfterVisitingSamePageLocation(oldURL,newURL)dispatchEvent(new HashChangeEvent("hashchange",oldURL:oldURL.toString(),newURL:newURL.toString()))notifyApplicationAfterFrameLoad(frame)return dispatch("turbo:frame-load",target:frame)notifyApplicationAfterFrameRender(fetchResponse,frame)return dispatch("turbo:frame-render",detail:fetchResponse:fetchResponse,target:frame,cancelable:!0)elementDriveEnabled(element)getActionForLink(link)link=link.getAttribute("data-turbo-action");return isAction(link)?link:"advance"getTargetFrameForLink(link)var frame=link.getAttribute("data-turbo-frame");return frameget snapshot()return this.view.snapshot;var prototype=session["navigator"];function start()session.start()function registerAdapter(adapter)session.registerAdapter(adapter)function visit(location2,options)session.visit(location2,options)function connectStreamSource(source)session.connectStreamSource(source)function disconnectStreamSource(source)session.disconnectStreamSource(source)function renderStreamMessage(message)session.renderStreamMessage(message)function clearCache()session.clearCache()function setProgressBarDelay(delay)session.setProgressBarDelay(delay)function setConfirmMethod(confirmMethod)FormSubmission.confirmMethod=confirmMethodvar Turbo=Object.freeze(__proto__:null,navigator:prototype,session:session,PageRenderer:PageRenderer,PageSnapshot:PageSnapshot,start:start,registerAdapter:registerAdapter,visit:visit,connectStreamSource:connectStreamSource,disconnectStreamSource:disconnectStreamSource,renderStreamMessage:renderStreamMessage,clearCache:clearCache,setProgressBarDelay:setProgressBarDelay,setConfirmMethod:setConfirmMethod);class SnapshotSubstitutionconstructor(element)this.visitCachedSnapshot=(element:element2)=>varid,clone=this;null!=(element2=element2.querySelector("#"+id))&&element2.replaceWith(clone),this.clone=element.cloneNode(!0),this.id=element.idfunction getFrameElementById(id)if(null!=id)id=document.getElementById(id);if(id instanceof FrameElement)return idfunction activateElement(element,currentURL)if(element)var src=element.getAttribute("src");if(null!=src&&null!=currentURL&&function urlsAreEqual(left,right)return expandURL(left).href==expandURL(right).href(src,currentURL))throw new Error(`Matching element has a source URL which references itself`);if((element=element.ownerDocument!==document?document.importNode(element,!0):element)instanceof FrameElement)return element.connectedCallback(),element.disconnectedCallback(),elementconst StreamActions=after()this.targetElements.forEach(e=>var _a;return null==(_a=e.parentElement)?void 0:_a.insertBefore(this.templateContent,e.nextSibling)),append()this.removeDuplicateTargetChildren(),this.targetElements.forEach(e=>e.append(this.templateContent)),before()this.targetElements.forEach(e=>var _a;return null==(_a=e.parentElement)?void 0:_a.insertBefore(this.templateContent,e)),prepend()this.removeDuplicateTargetChildren(),this.targetElements.forEach(e=>e.prepend(this.templateContent)),remove()this.targetElements.forEach(e=>e.remove()),replace()this.targetElements.forEach(e=>e.replaceWith(this.templateContent)),update()this.targetElements.forEach(e=>e.innerHTML="",e.append(this.templateContent));class StreamElement extends HTMLElementconnectedCallback()return __async$3(this,null,function*()tryyield this.render()catch(error)console.error(error)finallythis.disconnect())render()return __async$3(this,null,function*()var _a;return null!=(_a=this.renderPromise)?_a:this.renderPromise=__async$3(this,null,function*()this.dispatchEvent(this.beforeRenderEvent)&&(yield nextAnimationFrame(),this.performAction())))disconnect()trythis.remove()catch(_a)removeDuplicateTargetChildren()this.duplicateChildren.forEach(c=>c.remove())get duplicateChildren()var _a,existingChildren=this.targetElements.flatMap(e=>[...e.children]).filter(c=>!!c.id);const newChildrenIds=[...null==(_a=this.templateContent)?void 0:_a.children].filter(c=>!!c.id).map(c=>c.id);return existingChildren.filter(c=>newChildrenIds.includes(c.id))get performAction()if(this.action)var actionFunction=StreamActions[this.action];if(actionFunction)return actionFunction;this.raise("unknown action")this.raise("action attribute is missing")get targetElements()return this.target?this.targetElementsById:this.targets?this.targetElementsByQuery:void this.raise("target or targets attribute is missing")get templateContent()return this.templateElement.content.cloneNode(!0)get templateElement()if(this.firstElementChild instanceof HTMLTemplateElement)return this.firstElementChild;this.raise("first child element must be a

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