- Prior was +98K (revised to 95K)
Details:
- Goods -3K versus +2K last month
- Services +47K versus +96K last month
- Small business K vs +53K prior
- Medium businesses K vs +29K last month
- Large businesses K vs +25K last month
Wages:
- Wages for job stayers 4.4% vs 4.4% last month
- Wages for job changers 7.0% vs 6.6% last month
For me, this survey has been more credible than non-farm payrolls for at least the last year but it doesn’t get the same attention in markets and — at the moment — the market isn’t overly focused on jobs. The red flag in this report is rising wages for job changers, that’s a sign of second-round inflation effects.
“Job-changers are highly sensitive to real-time economic conditions, and their rapid pay growth implies supply constraints in parts of the labor market. Typical hiring patterns, meanwhile, are changing as employers react to shifting macro-economic conditions,” said ADP chief economist Nela Richardson.
In terms of sectors:
- Education/health +36K
- Financial services +10K
- Construction +1K
- Trade/transport/utilities -8K
- Leisure/hospitality -11K
That’s too much government-adjacent work and not enough of the rest. The decline in hospitality might be an unwind from the World Cup.
