The CHF weakened initially (USDCHF moved higher) after the SNB signaled a willingness to intervene following its decision to keep rates unchanged on Thursday. The pair extended to a high of 0.7957, stalling just ahead of a downward-sloping trendline on the 4-hour chart.
However, the upside momentum could not be sustained. Broad-based USD selling during the North American session triggered a rotation lower, pushing the price back below the 100-hour MA. A rebound during the Asian session lifted the pair back above that level (currently near 0.7885), but once again, buyers failed to maintain control.
The pair has since rotated lower, dipping just below yesterday’s low before finding support near the rising 200-hour MA at 0.7869.
With price now trading between the 100- and 200-hour moving averages, the short-term bias is neutral, and those MAs are the key directional barometers:
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Below the 200-hour MA (0.7869): Opens the door for a move toward a key swing area near 0.7837 (a level that held as support on Wednesday and has prior price memory). A break below that targets the 38.2% retracement at 0.7822.
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Above the 100-hour MA (0.7885): Shifts the bias back to the upside, with a retest of the 0.7900 natural resistance level. A break above that would increase bullish momentum and expose higher levels.
In short, the market is in consolidation mode, with the battle between the 100- and 200-hour MAs setting up the next directional move.
