Over the weekend I posted on comments from head of the New York Federal Reserve, John Williams:
ICYMI, Williams was asked, in an interview:
- To sum up then, if the data were to reveal itself over the next two months in a way consistent with what we’ve seen over the last few months, which I would characterize as some goods inflation filtering through, maybe not as much or as fast as people had thought, and the labor market that doesn’t appear to be getting any stronger, but again, hard to read because of changes in supply and demand. Would you be prepared to support resuming rate normalization as soon as your next meeting?
Now Williams is a central banker, so his answer was long and detailed. In summary, Williams said the Bank is nearing its goals, but rate cuts depend on data. … Williams emphasized being data-driven, not committing to a timeline, and carefully weighing risks before easing policy. And then he finished with this, which is what is going to get the headlines, bolding is mine:
- And so I think that I go into this with very much an open mind.
While we don’t have a comments section here at investingLive (I’m told one is on the way, so I’m hanging in there!) I thought I’d provide my own comment on this post while we wait.
In a nutshell, Williams said that if the data pointed to a need for a cut he’d be supportive. This is important. Important because
its
not
really
news.
Is it?
Find me a central banker who would say that “if data showed X was necessary, I still wouldn’t do it.” OK, yeah, the Turkish central bank went through that stage because Turkey’s President was firing any one the officials there who didn’t support rate cuts in the face of rising inflation. But, apart from that basket case, you’d find it very difficult to find another example.
What Williams said is just regular central bank speak, “if data supports X then of course we would do X. ” In this case, if the data supports the case for a rate cut, then a rate cut we would get! Like I said, not news. The implication for us is to watch the data that will come ahead of the September (16th and 17th) meeting. Bear this in mind:
I posted earlier on the debate inside the Federal Reserve on the impact of tariffs on inflation. Its not what you think:
