Author: FX

UOB Global Economics & Markets Research, through Associate Economist Jester Koh, judges that Singapore’s GDP exposure to the Middle East conflict is modest under a short-lived shock scenario. Exports to key regional economies are about 2% of total exports, and UOB keeps its 2026 GDP growth forecast at 3.6%, while flagging potential secondary demand effects via weaker global consumption and investment.Growth impact seen as contained for now”We assess the direct impact on Singapore’s GDP growth from the latest escalation in the Middle East conflict to be limited at this juncture, assuming the conflict stays heightened only for a short period…

BNY’s Head of Markets Macro Strategy Bob Savage notes a sharp divergence between CNY forwards and spot, suggesting hedge unwinding alongside asset outflows. CNY has outperformed peers, yet the bank questions its safe haven role as spot flows show large outflows tied to expatriation. PBoC officials reiterate they will not use depreciation for competitiveness and aim to keep the renminbi broadly stable.Forward strength versus spot outflows”CNY has strongly outperformed its peers, but we also struggle to see a strong case for how the currency can serve as a safe haven.””The past two days have seen very large outflows, and this…

The USD/CHF pair retreats on Friday during the North American session, down 0.53% as the Greenback weakens following a dismal jobs report, and a break to four day low beneath the 0.7800 figure. At the time of writing, the pair trades at 0.7771, yet it remains to end the week with gains of more than 1%.USD/CHF Price Forecast: Technical outlookThe technical picture shows USD/CHF remaining downward biased as the pair failed to clear 0.7800, opening the door for further downside. Momentum has begun to shift slightly negatively, as depicted by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), about to clear its neutral…

Beth Hammack, President of the Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Cleveland, said that inflation is too high, adding that inflationary pressures are broad-based at the United States (US) Monetary Policy Forum in New York City on Friday.Key quotes:Inflation is ‘too high,’ pressures are broad based.Fed rate policy likely on hold for quite some time.Fed policy is in good position to navigate inflation, job challenges.Remains committed to meeting Fed’s job, inflation mandates.Inflation problem is broader than just tariffs.It would take a lot to dethrone dollar’s global role.Not hearing from contacts notable move away from dollar.Stablecoins could bolster demand for dollar.Euro still…

OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong report that USD/MYR is consolidating near recent highs after an early-week run-up, supported by broader USD strength and soggy risk sentiment. Geopolitical headlines around Iran and energy markets are seen as key drivers. They warn that further escalation could trigger risk-off flows, weakening high-beta Asian FX including MYR, with clear resistance and support levels outlined.High-beta MYR vulnerable to risk-off flows”USD/MYR. Consolidation near recent highs. USD/MYR consolidated this week after the run-up in early week. Combination of USD strength, soggy risk sentiments weighed on Asian FX, including MYR.””For now, geopolitical headlines dominate and…

The Middle East crisis has escalated into an all-out war after the US and Israel assassinated the Supreme Leader of Iran on February 28. Iran not only targeted Israel but also attacked United States (US) military bases around the Persian Gulf. The Strait of Hormuz has been blocked by Iranian forces, cutting off Asia’s primary source of oil. As demand for safety skyrocketed, the biggest beneficiary was not who you are guessing; it was the Greenback, which took investors’ focus away from the bright metal as the US Dollar Index (DXY) traded around the 99.70 price region during the week,…

Silver (XAG/USD) trades modestly higher on Friday as the US Dollar (USD) and Treasury yields ease following softer-than-expected US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data. Despite the intraday bounce, the white metal remains on track for its first weekly decline in three weeks.At the time of writing, XAG/USD is trading around $84.27, up nearly 2.73% on the day after rebounding from a daily low near $80.17.Meanwhile, the escalating US-Iran conflict continues to offer some underlying support to safe-haven assets, helping limit deeper losses in Silver.However, rising Oil prices driven by supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz are fueling global inflation concerns.…

Inflation is “too high” and price pressures are broad basedRate policy likely to remain on hold for quite some timeFed policy is in a good position to navigate inflation and labor challengesRemains committed to meeting the Fed’s inflation mandateThe inflation problem extends beyond tariffsIt would take a lot to dethrone the dollar’s global roleNot hearing from contacts about a notable shift away from the dollarStablecoins could bolster demand for the dollarThe euro is not yet ready to replace the dollarThe dollar’s global role is supported by U.S. fundamentals, legal system, and credibilitySummary: The remarks carry a cautious but confident tone,…

It is Fed Collins turn to speak aa the clock ticks to the blackout period ahead of the Fed decision on March 18 starting after the close. Expects theFed rate target to hold steady for some timeNow is time for the Fed to be patient and deliberative with rate policyTo cut rates again, policymakers need clear evidence that inflation is ebbingSees no urgent need to change the current monetary policy stanceJob market appears relatively stableOutlook for inflation remains uncertain with upside risksExpects inflation to ease slowly toward the 2% targetFed policy is currently well positionedLatest developments on tariffs could bring…

U.S. officials are set to launch a $20 billion reinsurance facility designed to support Gulf shipping and help restart maritime cargo coverage. The program is expected to be unveiled on Friday by DFC Chief Executive Ben Black and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. According to the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation, the initiative will partner with U.S. insurance companies that have already been identified to participate in the program, helping provide additional insurance capacity for vessels operating in the region.The problem is how many warships are available to usher the ships through the Straits of Hormuz and at what risk?Nevertheless, oil…