Author: FX
Commerzbank’s FX analysts note that Singapore’s 2026 Budget emphasizes supply-side support, SME internationalisation and capital-market development, including fresh funding for the Equity Market Development Programme and Anchor Fund. The Singapore Dollar has outperformed most Asian peers, with USD/SGD nearing a 10-year low as the Straits Times Index hits record highs.Fiscal support and strong currency performance”Prime Minister Lawrence Wong unveiled the 2026 Budget yesterday, with a focus on supply-side support and capital market development.””In FX, USD-SGD was little changed at 1.2630 yesterday.””The pair is approaching the 10-year low of 1.2580.””This year, SGD is the second best performing Asian currency behind MYR…
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Markets spent the week whipsawing between conflicting economic signals, leaving most major currencies trapped in choppy, directionless trading as traders struggled to find conviction. The dollar opened Monday nursing losses from softer inflation expectations, only to stage a brief comeback Tuesday after disappointing retail sales initially triggered selling. Wednesday’s blockbuster jobs report—130,000 payrolls versus just 40,000 expected—sparked another round trip as the headline beat clashed with massive downward revisions showing 2025 added just 181,000 jobs instead of the initially reported 584,000. Friday’s cooler-than-expected CPI capped the week with fresh volatility, pushing inflation expectations back toward earlier Fed rate cuts. Beyond…
MUFG’s Lin Li and Khang Sek Lee note that China’s January CPI slowdown was heavily distorted by Chinese New Year base effects, with food and services dragging headline inflation. PPI deflation narrowed on stronger global metals prices and tech-related demand. They expect reflation to remain gradual despite anti-involution measures, while the PBOC’s “moderately loose” stance and upcoming easing should keep USD/CNY on a mild downward path in 2026.Base effects mask underlying reflation trend”Looking beyond the January prints, we think the reflation will likely remain gradual despite the ongoing anti-involution campaign.””In China, the PBOC has reinforced a clear easing bias for…
Standard Chartered’s Senior Economist Tommy Wu raises Hong Kong’s 2026 GDP growth forecast to 3.2% from 2.5%, citing robust Q4 momentum, stronger financial activity and improving consumer sentiment. The bank expects a modest housing market rebound but remains cautiously optimistic due to structural shifts and global risks. HIBOR is seen lower in H1 before gradually rising again by Q4.Growth upgraded but risks still present”We raise our 2026 GDP growth forecast to 3.2% (from 2.5%), given the robust growth momentum in Q4.””We expect the financial industry to capitalise on Hong Kong’s regained impetus, notably in IPO fundraising and Renminbi internationalisation.””Consumer sentiment…
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UOB economists Julia Goh and Loke Siew Ting note Malaysia’s 4Q25 GDP grew 6.3% year-on-year, the fastest since 4Q22, lifting full-year 2025 growth to 5.2%. They project real GDP growth to slow to 4.5% in 2026 as base effects and external uncertainties weigh, though domestic demand, investment, tourism and AI-related activity are expected to keep overall expansion solid.Domestic demand cushions slower 2026 GDP”Going forward, we expect real GDP growth to moderate to 4.5% in 2026 (from 5.2% in 2025, MOF est: 4.0%-4.5%) amid persistent external uncertainties and base effects.””Domestic demand should remain the key anchor, supported by continued government policy…
Silver (XAG/USD) price advances on Friday, bouncing off daily lows around $74 and posting gains of over 2.50%, yet it is poised to end the week on a negative note. A softer-than-expected US inflation report pushed the white metal higher, and it trades at $77.20 a troy ounce ahead of the weekend.XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlookSilver is down 0.85% in the week, after beginning the week at around $80.00. Nevertheless, US stocks plunged on Thursday, pushing XAG downward, which has recently moved in sympathy with equities.The Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggests that the precious metal is poised to trade sideways,…
The US House voted against tariffs this week and the Senate is expected to follow suit. They will surely be vetoed by President Trump but that move gives some cover to the Supreme Court ahead of its big decision on tariffs.The court today announced that Feb 20, 24 and 25 will all be ‘decision days’ or days when they will render opinions. As a reminder, they don’t pre-announce which cases they will be ruling on, so it could be tariffs and it could be one of the other dozens of cases before the court.Officials have until June to make a…
Commerzbank analysts explain that India’s new CPI series shows January inflation at 2.8% year-on-year, back within the RBI’s 2–6% target band. The reweighted basket reduces food’s share and should damp volatility. With inflation contained and growth supported by fiscal policy and trade deals, RBI is expected to keep the policy rate unchanged at 5.25%.Inflation reweighting and policy implications”January CPI rose 2.8% yoy in the new CPI series with 2024 as the base year vs 1.3% in December under the old series with the base year of 2014.””Under the new CPI series, inflation returned to the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI)…