Author: FX

Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee noted on Friday during an interview with Yahoo Finance that although interest rates are poised to come down further, moves on policy rates are contingent on further taming of services inflation.Key highlightsCPI data had some encouraging bits, and some concerns.We’re still seeing pretty-high services inflation.I hope we’ve seen the peak impact of tariffs.Strong January job data hopefully a sign of stability. Job market has been steady and only modest cooling.I think interest rates can still go down a fair bit more.We just need to see the progress on inflation.Rates can still…

The US Dollar (USD) lost major ground over the week, briefly gaining some strength after better-than-expected United States (US) jobs data, as the January Nonfarm Payrolls report showed 130K new jobs were added. Also, the Unemployment Rate fell to 4.3% from 4.4%. The US released a softer-than-expected January Consumer Price Index (CPI) report on Friday, weighing on the USD.The US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading near 96.80, declining from 97.15 highs following the release of soft inflation CPI data that fueled bets on a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut later in the year. Next week, the spotlight heads to Friday…

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee spoke with Yahoo Finance today and had some notable comments:Encouraging and concerning parts in latest CPIWe are still seeing pretty high services inflationHopes we’ve seen the peak impact of tariffsThe job market has been steady, only modest coolingRates can still go down but need to see progress on inflationConsumers should hold up if the jobs market is stable and inflation easesI don’t know how restrictive Fed policy isHigh services inflation is worrisomeWe are not on a path back to 2% inflation, stuck around 3%December CPI came in slightly cooler than expected, with headline inflation rising…

Standard Chartered’s Senior Economist Tommy Wu raises Taiwan’s 2026 GDP growth forecast to 8.0% from 3.8%, citing strong Q4-2025 expansion and robust global semiconductor demand. The bank expects economic momentum to stay firm through 2026, supported by booming ICT and electronics exports and a recent US trade deal, while growth remains uneven and income disparity may widen.AI-driven export boom lifts outlook”We raise our 2026 GDP growth forecast to 8.0% (from 3.8%) following strong Q4-2025 growth of 12.7% y/y and 2025 growth of 8.7%. The forecast upgrade in part reflects Q4’s strong q/q growth momentum (at 5.4%). While we expect some…

Gold (XAU/USD) price makes a U-turn on Friday and trims some of Thursday’s losses, rising nearly 2% following the release of a softer-than-expected inflation report in the US, which increased speculation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could lower rates. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades above the $5,000 milestone.XAU/USD rallies nearly 2% after cooler US inflation data fuels renewed expectations of a June rate reductionThe US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in January fell below estimates of 2.5%, coming at 2.4% YoY, down from December’s 2.7%. Initially, the print is good news for…

We are done with the big banks and Big Tech. Now we get the real economy. Next week’s earnings calendar is a tug-of-war between the resilient service-spending consumer and the battered industrial/goods sector.Here is the playbook for the week.Walmart (WMT)Thursday (Before Open) If “General Merch” (electronics, clothes, home goods) is positive, the consumer is feeling confident. If growth is purely from Grocery (inflation-driven necessities), the consumer is gasping for air. On inflation, watch for comments on deflation in goods. If Walmart mentions “rolling back prices” aggressively to move inventory, that’s a disinflationary signal for the Fed (and bearish for margins).2.…

US stocks have turned around nicely today led by the Russell 2000, which is up 1.8%. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are both up 0.6% and eyes are on software stocks. The IGV software ETF is up 2.3% after an utterly bruising performance so far this year.IGV ETF dailyI’m careful not to lean too hard on this index because 20% of it is Microsoft and I see it as more of a disrupter than a disruptee. That said, it’s been beaten up as well.If you look at the chart, it’s found some support at last week’s lows and if that…

It’s not a proper investing theme until there is an acronym.I’ve been writing for a few weeks about old economy stocks making a comeback but it’s been tough to frame exactly the kinds of companies that are best built for what’s coming. The market is frightened by disruption and that’s why software stocks have seen a massive re-rating lower, with many falling 30-50% in a few weeks. There’s a cottage industry developing in commentating on which software companies will actually be disrupted by AI but to me, it’s tough to say in the software and tech space as the essential…

National Bank Of Canada’s Ethan Currie and Taylor Schleich stress that the U.S. fiscal trajectory remains unsustainable despite additional tariff revenues. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) now projects more cumulative deficits versus its prior outlook, with the One, Big, Beautiful Bill and stricter immigration policy worsening the picture. Political uncertainty over future tariff policy adds another layer of risk to the U.S. macro backdrop.Unsustainable deficits and tariff uncertainty”This won’t come as news, but the U.S. federal government is on an unsustainable fiscal path.””And even though tariffs were promised to be a source of fiscal consolidation, the broader deficit / debt…

Sector Overview: A Mixed Day Across the MarketThe stock market today showcases a complex landscape, with varied performances across sectors. Leading the charge, the healthcare sector is basking in green, while technology shows a mix of highs and lows.📈 Healthcare: Eli Lilly (LLY) surged by 1.40%, riding on positive sentiments, while Merck (MRK) continues its upward trend with a 1.92% increase. Collectively, these gains underscore robust investor confidence in drug manufacturers.📉 Technology: Mixed emotions run through technology stocks, with Oracle (ORCL) experiencing a promising 1.69% rise, but Nvidia (NVDA) dwindling slightly by 0.41%. The semiconductor space struggles as Micron (MU)…