Author: FX
If you ever needed proof that forex trading is never just about one thing, this was the week. Between a war in the Middle East keeping oil markets on edge, six major central banks dropping policy decisions within days of each other, and a triple-witching Friday throwing a wrench into the mix — the currency market had a lot to digest from March 16 to 20. The throughline? Geopolitics and central bank tone were in a constant tug-of-war, and the currencies that came out on top were the ones with the clearest policy story to tell. The ones caught in…
A Reuters poll revealed that the Bank of Mexico, also known as Banxico, is expected to keep interest rates steady at 7% at the March 26 meeting amid concerns about the Middle East war.If Banxico keeps rates unchanged, it would be the second consecutive time the central bank has opted for a wait-and-see approach, after reducing rates 12 times since the easing cycle began.The survey revealed that 16 of 28 economists expect Mexico’s main reference rate to remain unchanged, while a minority of participants — including analysts at Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan — project a resumption of Banxico’s easing cycle,…
Markets:Gold down $143 to $4502US 10-year yields up 10 bps to 4.39%Silver down 6.7%Bitcoin down 0.8%WTI crude oil up $2.60 to $98.09S&P 500 down 1.7%I’m not sure if we’re at maximum fear yet but we are close. There was nowhere to hide on Friday as the market increasingly feared a weekend escalation, or worse, saw signs of a quagmire. In the US morning, Trump called NATO allies cowards and said it will be “so easy” to reopen Hormuz and just before the market close, eh said “you need a lot of help” to reopen it. That kind of talk has…
The declines in the major indices were symmetrically worse going from the Dow, to the S&P to the Nasdaq. Rounding, the Dow fell -1.00%, the S&P fell -1.50%, and the Nasdaq fell by -2.00%. All three indices also closed below its 200 day MA this week. The Dow 200 day MA is at 46562. The index closed at 45577.47The S&P 200 day MA is at 6621.73. The index closed at 6506.48The Nasdaq 200 day MA is at 22248.94. The index closed at 21647.61For the trading week: Dow fell -2.11%S&P fell -1.90%Nasdaq fell -2.07%Super Micro Computer tumbled on the back of…
The US Dollar (USD)i weakened this week, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) slipping back below 100.00 to 99.60 on Friday after a surge in the middle of the week driven by the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) decision to hold rates in the 3.50%-3.75% range. The war in Iran is nearing the end of its third week, with the Strait of Hormuz still effectively closed as Oil prices remain high. Reports indicate that the Pentagon is deploying thousands of additional Marines to the region, suggesting that a swift resolution is unlikely. Additionally, Fed’s Chair Jerome Powell has cautioned that inflationary pressures…
At a certain point, the Strait will open itselfI think Israel will be ready to end the war when the US wants it to endI don’t want to do a ceasefireWe can have dialogue but I don’t want to do a ceasefireOn Hormuz: It would be nice if China and Japan got involvedOn UK help: A very late response, they should have acted fasterSays lacks radar, aircraft, and leadership, with a firm stance against a ceasefireWe have unlimited ammunition and a lot of troopsOn oil prices, Trump said he expected worseRepeats that operation is “weeks ahead” of scheduleWe don’t need…
Gold (XAU/USD) price extended on Friday its losses for the eighth straight day, poised to end the week down by more than 8.50% as Oil prices continued to rally, boosting the haven appeal of the Greenback. The jump in US Treasury yields and market participants’ pricing in no rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) keep the yellow metal downward pressured.Gold set for 8% weekly loss as Fed rate cut bets vanish, Middle East conflict escalatesAt the time of writing, XAU/USD trades at $4,560, down nearly 2% in the day. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the buck’s performance…
The market is sensing that energy prices will stay higher for longer as the US and Israel struggle to define a plan for peace and reopening the Strait of Hormuz.Trump today in a Truth Social post said it would be easy to re-open the strait and that the US was prepared to do it alone. The market doesn’t believe it as Brent crude oil is now up $4 to $112.68. There is also a crunch in natural gas, fertilizer, sulpher and other goods that normally flow from the area.With that, US 12-month inflation breakevens are now up to 5.3%. That’s…
As we head into the close, the major US stock indices are pressing to new lows for the day and the week, with downside momentum building. The S&P 500 is down nearly 1.5%, while the NASDAQ has extended losses to around -2.0%, reflecting broad-based selling pressure.This week marks an important technical shift, as both indices have now moved below their 200-day moving averages (Green line on the chart below) for the first time since May 2025. That break weakens the longer-term bullish bias and suggests that sellers are gaining firmer control.Focusing on the S&P 500, the index has now extended…
The Swiss Franc (CHF) trades flat against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, reversing part of its earlier gains as the Greenback eases slightly from daily highs. At the time of writing, USD/CHF is trading around 0.7878 after briefly touching the 0.7900 mark. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, is trading near 99.54 after retreating from an intraday high of 99.79.Despite the modest pullback in the Greenback, it remains up nearly 0.30% on the day, limiting follow-through selling pressure in USD/CHF. However, the Franc remains relatively firm across the…